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LW3DBH > ALERT 20.05.20 02:30z 117 Lines 5420 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 187_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200520/0210Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:187 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:187_LW3DBH
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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WW 194 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 192035Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Tue
May 19 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Idaho Western
and central Montana
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5
inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to intensify through mid-afternoon
initially across southwest Montana and nearby northern Idaho. Over
time, storms are expected to spread across additional portions of
west-central Montana by evening. Some supercells and well-organized
bowing segments can be expected with large hail and severe-caliber
wind gusts possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Havre MT
to 45 miles south southwest of Dillon MT. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 21025.
...Guyer
WW 0194 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 194
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..05/20/20
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-200240-
ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
MTC001-005-007-013-015-023-027-031-037-039-041-043-045-049-051-
057-059-063-067-073-077-081-093-097-099-101-107-200240-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS GALLATIN
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANITE HILL JEFFERSON
JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MADISON
MEAGHER MISSOULA PARK PONDERA
POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW SWEET GRASS TETON
TOOLE WHEATLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746
PM CDT Tue May 19 2020
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF MONTANA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across
parts of Montana, while a few strong storms will be noted across
the High Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.
...MT...
Diffluent high-level flow has developed across the northern Rockies
this evening as upper troughing persists across the inter-mountain
west. Exit region of mid-level jet appears partly responsible
for robust convection that has developed over western MT. This
activity initiated over the higher terrain and is now spreading
north-northeast within broader flow-regime. 00z sounding from TFX
appears to be partly contaminated by earlier convection; however,
vertical wind profile remains supportive of organized convection.
Given the large-scale forcing for ascent, isolated supercells
should linger across this region as adequate buoyancy remains for
strong/severe updrafts.
...High Plains...
A narrow corridor of instability resides across the High Plains
from eastern WY - eastern CO - eastern NM - west TX. This activity
is largely driven by strong surface heating, though weak upslope
flow is noted across the High Plains. While mid-level heights
are expected to fall weakly overnight, large-scale forcing is not
expected to be particularly strong and LLJ will be the main factor
in convective longevity this evening.
...Lower MS Valley...
Early-evening satellite imagery (cu field) depicts the synoptic
front quite well that is draped from central LA into north-central
TX. A few weak showers have developed along the wind shift from LA
into southern MS. While this activity may struggle to intensify
due to weak forcing, persistent low-level warm advection during
the overnight hours may encourage isolated robust thunderstorms
later tonight.
..Darrow.. 05/20/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Linus: Hi! I thought it was you.
I've been watching you from way off... You're looking great!
Snoopy: That's nice to know.
The secret of life is to look good at a distance.
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