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LW3DBH > ALERT 21.05.20 02:23z 303 Lines 15239 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 05
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To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 197 SEVERE TSTM MT 202105Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM MDT Wed
May 20 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern
Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify initially
across central/southern Montana this afternoon, and subsequent
spread/develop north-northeastward across east-central Montana by
evening. Severe hail/wind are the primary risks.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Glasgow MT to 70 miles west southwest of Broadus MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
21025.
...Guyer
WW 196 SEVERE TSTM TX 202045Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Wed
May 20 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West/Northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 345 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in several
sub-regional corridors across west/northwest Texas, initially
including areas such as the western/southern Texas Panhandle and
Texas South Plains and southward toward the Permian Basin. Large
hail is expected. Some tornado threat could also exist. By evening,
storms will merge and severe-caliber winds will be an increased
threat as storms spread east/southeastward.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Borger TX to 70 miles southwest of San Angelo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 26015.
...Guyer
WW 195 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 202020Z - 210400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM MDT Wed
May 20 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify this
afternoon initially across eastern Wyoming. Initial supercells
are expected with large hail a distinct possibility. Over time,
storms will develop/spread toward western portions of South Dakota
and Nebraska, and also develop southward into northern Colorado
by evening. The damaging wind threat will also increase by early
evening and a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly along the
Wyoming/South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Gillette WY to 65 miles southwest of Sidney NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 19020.
...Guyer
WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE 4BQ TO
15 ENE 4BQ TO 45 SW MLS TO 50 ENE BIL TO 60 N BIL TO 30 NE LWT TO
50 N LWT.
..SPC..05/21/20
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-011-017-019-021-025-027-033-055-065-069-071-079-083-085-
087-103-105-109-210140-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS
DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD
MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD TREASURE
VALLEY WIBAUX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 6R6 TO
60 ENE FST TO 15 ENE MAF TO 35 N MAF TO 25 W LBB TO 50 WNW LBB TO
50 W AMA TO 15 SSE BGD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
..MOORE..05/21/20
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-033-045-069-081-095-101-105-107-115-125-151-153-169-173-
189-191-207-227-235-253-263-267-269-279-303-305-317-327-335-345-
353-381-383-399-413-415-431-433-435-437-441-443-451-210240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BORDEN BRISCOE CASTRO
COKE CONCHO COTTLE CROCKETT
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FISHER FLOYD
GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE HALL
HASKELL HOWARD IRION JONES KENT
KIMBLE KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MENARD MITCHELL MOTLEY
NOLAN RANDALL REAGAN RUNNELS
SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING STONEWALL SUTTON
SWISHER TAYLOR TERRELL TOM GREEN
WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW FCL TO
15 NE CYS TO 10 N TOR TO 30 NNW CDR TO 25 WSW RAP TO 45 WNW RAP TO
60 ENE GCC TO 40 SE 4BQ.
..SPC..05/21/20
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-123-210140-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN WELD
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-210140-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-210140-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197... FOR EASERN
MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020
Areas affected...Easern Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...
Valid 210027Z - 210200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat should spread northeast across ww197.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting
northeast across WY toward eastern MT. Large-scale forcing for ascent
appears to be aiding broken squall line as it propagates across
the plains toward a corridor of modest instability over eastern
portions of ww197. With LLJ expected to increase across western ND
into southeast SK later this evening, this convection should spread
toward the international border into portions of extreme western
ND. Latest hail algorithm output continues to suggest large hail
is noted with supercell structures and this should be the primary
concern, though some wind is also possible.
..Darrow.. 05/21/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45000927 48910983 48920433 45010416 45000927
MD 0649 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... FOR WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020
Areas affected...west into southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...
Valid 210012Z - 210215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind will continue from
Lubbock, TX southward into southwest TX. While a near term threat
will continue for the Texas Panhandle, the overall severe threat
is diminishing.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from the TX Panhandle southward
into the eastern Big Bend region shows continued thunderstorm
propagation along outflow boundaries from an initial round of
convection that initiated off a now-retreating dryline. Given
moderate instability near 3000 J/kg, but relatively weak effective
bulk wind shear, the expectation for the coming hours is that
thunderstorms will continue to develop along outflow boundaries
and gradually propagate towards the eastern edge of WW 196. This
is especially true from the Lubbock, TX area southward where
instability is more favorable for continued storm development. The
severe threat should continue for at least 1-2 hours after sunset
before increasing inhibition limits lift along outflow boundaries.
Further north into the TX Panhandle, MLCAPE is confined to a narrow
corridor along the western edge of the Panhandle near the retreating
dryline. Gravity waves noted in KAMA velocity data and GOES visible
imagery suggest that inhibition is also stronger in this region and
is mitigating more widespread storm development. Although a severe
threat continues with ongoing convection and potentially from any
northward moving left splits from west-central TX, inhibition will
continue to increase and diminish the severe threat heading into
the evening hours.
..Moore.. 05/21/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33000216 33780210 33840111 33520017 33129980 32219971
31439975 31120007 30820077 30410156 30260213 30230243 30550264
31060228 31580176 32180133 32700192 33000216
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800
PM CDT Wed May 20 2020
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind
damage are expected in parts of the northern High Plains and southern
High Plains this evening.
...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
low over the northern Rockies with a shortwave trough rounding
the eastern side of the system in the northern High Plains. This
feature is located in northern Wyoming and is providing support
for thunderstorm development from far northeastern Wyoming into
southeast Montana. The airmass ahead of this convection from
western South Dakota into much of eastern Montana is moderately
unstable with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. The Rapid City WSR-88D VWP shows strong speed shear in the
lowest 2 km AGL with 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. This wind profile
will be favorable for supercells especially with storms that remain
discrete. The greatest severe threat should move northward into the
strongest instability across much of eastern Montana this evening
where isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.
...Southern High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows
an upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest with cyclonic
southwesterly mid-level flow over the southern Rockies and southern
High Plains. At the surface, a 999 mb low is present in west Texas
near Midland with backed easterly flow on much of the Caprock into
the Low Rolling Plains. Thunderstorms are ongoing along to the east
of a zone of low-level convergence, oriented north-to-south from west
of Amarillo to west of Lubbock. This convection is located on the
western end of a corridor moderate instability. The RAP is showing
MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range extending northwestward into
the Lubbock and Amarillo vicinities. The WSR-88D VWP at Lubbock
has directional shear in the lowest 3 km AGL which is contributing
to about 50 kt of 0-6 km shear. The Amarillo WSR-88D VWP is similar
but has directional shear concentrated closer to the surface. These
wind profiles will support severe storm development for several more
hours this evening. Supercells with large hail, possibly greater
than 2 inches in diameter, will be possible with storms co-located
with the strongest instability. As cells become more multicellular in
nature this evening, the wind damage threat may gradually increase.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2020
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