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LW3DBH > ALERT 22.05.20 02:20z 219 Lines 10941 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<OZ5BBS<CX2SA<UA6ADV<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200522/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:399 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:399_LW3DBH
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 199 SEVERE TSTM TX 212245Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Thu
May 21 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of west central
and northwest Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected soon along a dryline
from roughly San Angelo northward to near Childress. The storm
environment east of the dryline appears supportive of high-based
thunderstorms, with a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell
structures. Occasional large hail and damaging outflow winds will
be the main concerns through late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Childress TX to 35 miles south southwest of San Angelo TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27015.
...Thompson
WW 198 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 212015Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Thu
May 21 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas Oklahoma
Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or
two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon across western Kansas, and possibly build southward
into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Very large hail is the main threat,
with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast
of Goodland KS to 25 miles south of Liberal KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27025.
...Hart
WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SJT TO
35 ESE BGS TO 75 NW ABI TO 45 SSE CDS TO 45 SSE CDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
..LYONS..05/22/20
ATTN...WFO...LUB...SJT...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC081-095-151-207-235-253-269-353-399-413-433-441-451-220240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COKE CONCHO FISHER HASKELL
IRION JONES KING NOLAN
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STONEWALL TAYLOR TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EHA TO
45 W GCK TO 50 SSE GLD TO 40 E GLD TO 40 SSW MCK.
..SPC..05/22/20
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 198
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-
129-135-137-171-175-179-187-189-193-195-203-220140-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS
NORTON SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WICHITA
OKC007-139-220140-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
MD 0660 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199... FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0660 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020
Areas affected...south central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...
Valid 220100Z - 220230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199
continues.
SUMMARY...A couple clusters of stronger storms have developed
across portions of WW199. Recent reports of severe hail in SJT,
and radar trends suggest severe weather will likely remain for the
next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually organized over the last few hours
across WW199. The atmosphere remains unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Shear is expected to increase slightly to around 30-35
kt as the southwest US shortwave trough continues to overspread
the area. The low-level jet is also expected to increase over the
next few hours. The increase in shear may support a few supercell
structures capable of large hail and strong winds. Storms should
begin to weaken as increasing nocturnal inhibition limits updraft
strength a couple hours after sunset. The greatest threat for severe
weather will likely remain with the well established cluster near
SJT, where 3.0 inch hail was recently reported.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33370101 33399997 33389949 31079958 31039979 30950014
30940062 31010101 31100130 32940115 33370101
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753
PM CDT Thu May 21 2020
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening over the central and southern High Plains. A marginal severe
threat will be possible in southern Arkansas.
...Central and Southern High Plains... Latest water vapor imagery
shows an upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. Large-scale
ascent ahead of this feature is moving into the central High Plains,
providing support for a developing MCS in western Kansas. These
storms will move east-southeastward this evening along a
northwest-to-southeast oriented corridor of moderate instability
from southwest Kansas and into northwest Oklahoma. The RAP is
estimating MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg along this corridor.
The WSR-88D VWP at Dodge City has strong directional shear in
the lowest 2 km AGL with speed shear in the mid-levels. This is
resulting in about 50 kt of 0-6 km shear which will be favorable for
supercells. The storms are forming on the nose of a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. This combined with the moderate deep-layer
shear will support a large hail threat this evening. The stronger
more dominant supercells could produce hailstones of greater than
2 inches in diameter. A tornado can not be ruled out as low-level
shear increases this evening due to a strengthening low-level jet.
As cells congeal into a larger convective cluster later this evening
and move across southwest Kansas and into northwest Oklahoma,
the wind damage threat may increase.
Further south across the Low Rolling Plains, two small clusters of
strong to severe storms are ongoing. This convection is located
to the east of a dryline and will move eastward into stronger
instability over the next couple of hours. For this reason, the
severe threat is expected to continue. Moderate deep-layer shear
and steep mid-level lapse rates, evident on the latest RAP, will
support supercells with large hail. The stronger downdrafts may
also produce damaging wind gusts.
...Arkansas... The latest surface analysis shows a very moist
airmass in place across the Arklatex where dewpoints are in the
lower 70s F. This has resulted in a west-northwest to east-northeast
oriented axis of moderate instability from southern Arkansas into
central Mississippi. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this corridor
near the strongest instability in southwest Arkansas. As this small
convective cluster moves eastward across southern Arkansas over
the next few hours, marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.
...North Carolina... An upper-level low will move slowly
northeastward across the Ohio Valley tonight as an associated
upper-level trough moves through the Carolinas. At the surface, a
mesolow will move northward across central North Carolina as a moist
airmass remains across eastern North Carolina. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s F should result in a small pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. In addition, low-level shear
will be maximized in eastern North Carolina where rotating storms
could have a marginal tornado or wind damage threat. The greatest
potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the late evening
and overnight period to the east of the mesolow from Wilmington to
Jacksonville and northward to Greenville.
..Broyles.. 05/22/2020
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Deflector shields just came on, Captain.
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