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LW3DBH > ALERT 23.05.20 02:23z 260 Lines 12342 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 05
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Sent: 200523/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:525 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:525_LW3DBH
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 206 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 230035Z - 230700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Fri
May 22 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of west central
and central Arkansas East central and southeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 735 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway along a
residual outflow boundary near and just south of Interstate 40,
and storms will likely persist along this corridor into the early
morning hours. The storm environment favors supercells capable of
producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds. There will
also be some threat for a tornado or two with the most intense
supercells the next few hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest
of Mcalester OK to 15 miles north northeast of Little Rock AR. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 27025.
...Thompson
WW 205 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222355Z - 230700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Fri
May 22 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of southwest and
south central Oklahoma Northwest and north central Texas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 655 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and scattered
very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Splitting supercells will likely persist into the overnight
hours, with the northernmost hail threat potentially reaching parts
of central Oklahoma. Additional storm development is expected
across northwest Texas this evening. The storm environment is
favorable for very large/damaging hail with the supercells, as
well as damaging winds. A tornado or two will be possible this
evening as storms remain discrete, primarily near the Red River.
Upscale growth into clusters is possible through early tonight as
the storms spread generally eastward, with a continued large hail
and damaging wind threat.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
70 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles south
southwest of Altus OK to 40 miles northeast of Durant OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This severe thunderstorm watch replaces
severe thunderstorm watch number 203. Watch number 203 will not be
in effect after 655 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 204...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Thompson
WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/23/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC029-033-045-047-051-053-059-071-083-097-105-113-115-119-125-
127-131-149-230140-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JOHNSON
LOGAN MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
YELL
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-230140-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/23/20
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-063-067-069-085-087-
095-099-123-125-133-137-141-230140-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
TXC009-023-077-085-097-121-147-155-181-207-237-253-275-337-363-
367-417-429-447-485-487-497-503-230140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COLLIN
COOKE DENTON FANNIN FOARD
GRAYSON HASKELL JACK JONES
WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FLO TO
30 NE FLO TO 20 S FAY TO 15 ENE FAY TO 20 SE RDU TO 25 E RDU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
..LYONS..05/22/20
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC019-047-061-079-101-103-107-129-133-141-163-191-195-230040-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS DUPLIN GREENE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PENDER SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON
SCC041-051-067-230040-
SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLORENCE HORRY MARION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/22/20
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC067-230040-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON
TXC009-023-077-155-197-207-237-275-337-363-367-429-447-485-487-
497-503-230040-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL JACK KNOX
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE
YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AHN TO
15 SE AND TO 20 S SPA TO 10 ENE SPA TO 25 NNE SPA TO 30 W HKY.
..DIAL..05/22/20
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...CAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC059-105-181-221-317-222040-
GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE ELBERT LINCOLN OGLETHORPE
WILKES
NCC023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-179-222040-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND
DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN
MECKLENBURG ROWAN UNION
SCC001-021-023-025-037-039-047-055-057-059-061-063-065-071-079-
081-083-085-087-091-222040-
SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MD 0675 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020
Areas affected...West-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230016Z - 230245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible early this
evening across west-central Texas. Large hail may occur but the
threat is expected to be too localized for weather watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over the
Low Rolling Plains with a dryline extending south-southwestward
from the low into west Texas. At this time, low-level convergence
is weak along the dryline but there is no cap in place. For this
reason, isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts
of the dryline this evening. Strong instability exists from near
the dryline eastward into central Texas where MLCAPE is estimated
in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. The San Angelo WSR-88D VWP shows a
relatively weak wind profile with estimated 0-6 km shear in the 20
to 25 kt range. In spite of this, 700-500 mb lapse rates approach
8.0 C/km according to the RAP suggesting any isolated supercell
that can develop will produce large hail. Weather watch issuance
will likely not be needed due to sparse cell coverage.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/23/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33010050 31520167 31020214 30740228 30320214 30220144
31270011 32759947 33010050
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757
PM CDT Fri May 22 2020
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER CORRIDOR OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe storms will continue
overnight from north Texas, across southern Oklahoma, into central
Arkansas.
...01z Update...
Early-day MCS that spread across OK/MO/AR produced an outflow
boundary that has mostly dissipated but remains highly influential.
Low-level flow remains east-southeasterly along a corridor from the
Red River into central AR. Deep convection is expanding in areal
coverage within this corridor where air mass is quite moist and
buoyant. 00z soundings from OUN/FWD exhibit MLCAPE around 3100
J/kg with weak inhibition near 750mb. While deep-layer flow is
a bit marginal for supercells at FWD, OUN sounding is supportive
of supercells along with some threat for tornadoes. Given the OUN
sounding, and recent convective development, have adjusted higher
severe probabilities north to include much of southern OK. An
upward-evolving complex of storms should propagate along the Red
River well into the overnight hours.
..Darrow.. 05/23/2020
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It is not every question that deserves an answer.
-- Publilius Syrus
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