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LW3DBH > ALERT 24.05.20 13:05z 518 Lines 24632 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 05
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| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 213 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 240125Z - 240700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West central and central
Nebraska South central South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 825 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Storms are growing into a larger line along a cold front
moving into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle.
This convection will spread eastward overnight with a continued
threat for large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out with embedded circulations and/or supercell structures.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of
Pierre SD to 60 miles southwest of North Platte NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209...WW 210...WW
211...WW 212...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Thompson
WW 212 TORNADO CO KS NE 232235Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast and east central
Colorado Northwest Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in
diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears to be underway near
a mesolow along the dryline near Goodland. At least isolated
supercells should evolve from this initial convection, with the
potential to produce isolated very large hail and a couple of
tornadoes through late evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Mccook NE to
30 miles south southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...WW 208...WW 209...WW
210...WW 211...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 24025.
...Thompson
WW 211 TORNADO IN MI LM 232155Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Indiana Extreme southwest
Lower Michigan Lake Michigan
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 555 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events
to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken band of storms moving into northwest Indiana and
southern Lake Michigan will persist for another few hours before
weakening. In the meantime, the storm environment will continue
to support supercells capable of producing isolated large hail,
damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Valparaiso IN to 60
miles south southeast of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...WW 208...WW 209...WW
210...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 26025.
...Thompson
WW 210 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232005Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Eastern
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along the dryline over the Texas
Panhandle, and should spread eastward across the watch area through
the early evening. Very large hail will be possible, along with
locally damaging winds gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles northeast of
Borger TX to 60 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...WW 208...WW 209...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
WW 209 SEVERE TSTM TX 231930Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Widespread large hail expected with
isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon across
southwest Texas along a strong dryline. These storms are likely
to produce large to very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles south southwest
of Dryden TX to 60 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...WW 208...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 208 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 231915Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado
Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or
two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of intense thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area.
Large hail will be the primary threat, although locally damaging
wind potential will increase through the late afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of
Buffalo SD to 40 miles south southeast of Sidney NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24030.
...Hart
WW 207 TORNADO IA IL IN WI LM 231735Z - 240100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a
couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts
to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in
diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to form across
eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. These storms will persist
through the afternoon and track northeastward across the watch area.
The strongest cells will pose a risk of tornadoes, damaging winds,
and hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Dubuque IA
to 10 miles southeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 24035.
...Hart
WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0213 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW GCK TO
10 ESE AKO.
..KARSTENS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC125-240140-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
YUMA
KSC023-039-153-181-193-199-240140-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC057-087-145-240140-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW VPZ TO
20 WSW BEH.
WW 211 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z.
..LYONS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 211
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC017-049-091-099-103-131-141-149-181-240200-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS FULTON LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
WHITE
MIC021-240200-
MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN
LMZ043-046-240200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE HOB TO
35 NW PVW TO 20 S LBL.
..KARSTENS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-065-129-240140-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS GREER
HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS
TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-155-169-179-189-191-
197-211-219-233-263-269-275-279-295-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-
445-483-240140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GARZA GRAY
HALE HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT KING KNOX
LAMB LIPSCOMB
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRF TO
15 NNE FST TO 15 N MAF TO 55 ENE HOB.
..KARSTENS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-043-081-103-105-115-151-173-227-235-317-329-335-353-371-
383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-240140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BREWSTER COKE CRANE
CROCKETT DAWSON FISHER GLASSCOCK
HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER
SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN
UPTON VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW AKO TO
20 NW SNY TO 10 WSW AIA TO 20 SE CDR TO 35 W PHP TO 60 S Y22 TO 30
ESE Y22.
WW 208 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
..LYONS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-240200-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
NEC005-029-031-033-049-069-075-101-123-135-161-240200-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT KEITH
MORRILL PERKINS SHERIDAN
SDC007-055-071-102-137-240200-
WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DNV TO
25 ENE MMO TO 15 E RFD TO 15 NNW MSN.
..KARSTENS..05/24/20
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LOT...ILX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-043-089-091-093-097-111-197-240140-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK DUPAGE KANE KANKAKEE
KENDALL LAKE MCHENRY WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-240140-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON
PORTER
WIC055-059-079-101-127-133-240140-
WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE
MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...210... FOR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western
Oklahoma...Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...210...
Valid 240148Z - 240345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209,
210 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across western
Oklahoma and northwest Texas over the next few hours. Wind
damage and isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low in southeast
Colorado. A moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the
mid 60s to lower 70s, from west-central Kansas southward into western
Oklahoma. The RAP is analyzing strong instability with MLCAPE of 3000
to 4000 J/kg across much of the area. This combined with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km will support a threat for isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail with organized multicells. However,
the severe threat may become more isolated further to the east
where deep-layer shear is considerably weaker. At this time,
it is unclear whether an additional watch will be needed.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36899866 36419918 35620001 35400048 35210050 34800007
34319957 33709933 33279830 33409767 33839757 34129757 34499783
35139788 35929786 36589816 36899866
MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
Areas affected...Southwest and West-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240102Z - 240330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue across parts of
southwest and west-central Kansas over the next couple of hours.
Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. Weather
watch is not expected but the situation will continue to be
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low in
southeast Colorado. A dryline is present from the Texas Panhandle
into southwest Kansas with a moist airmass in place to the east
of the dryline. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F are
contributing to moderate instability. Thunderstorms are developing
along the western edge of moderate instability to the southwest of
Dodge City. The WSR-88D VWP at Dodge City shows 0-6 km shear of 40
to 45 kt with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. 700
to 500 mb lapse rates are very steep approaching 9.0 C/km. For this
reason, left-moving supercells with large hail will continue to be
possible over the next couple of hours. Again, the severe threat
should be too isolated to warrant weather watch issuance.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37139975 37609903 38129878 38829873 39199959 39100030
38440072 37290090 37139975
MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
Areas affected...Central nebraska and South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 240053Z - 240230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing across Nebraska and south Dakota
should persist east out of WW208 over the next 1 to 2 hours. The
threat for damaging winds remains, and a downstream watch is
likely needed.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is organizing across portions of Nebraska and
South Dakota ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. An uptick in
convective intensity and coverage has been noted over the last hour.
This is likely due to increased low-level mass response from the
low-level jet advecting in deeper moisture ahead of the storms.
Increased moisture with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low
60s will support robust updrafts. The predominately linear mode
will favor a threat for damaging wind gusts this evening, though
severe hail will also be possible with the initial convection. A
new watch is likely downstream of WW208 within the hour.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43680123 44000118 44570119 44810124 45010159 45140169
45420188 45660201 45830194 45940169 45940058 45969990 45929957
45819935 45529908 45219890 44849869 44299848 44119849 43409838
42869848 42209867 42019871 41759872 41399886 40929932 40659952
40519987 40460009 40410034 40410060 40450106 40610121 40970129
41360137 41760134 42590124 43680123
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801
PM CDT Sat May 23 2020
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with very large hail and severe wind
will affect parts of the northern and southern Great Plains through
tonight. A few severe storms will linger across the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity.
...Southern Lake MI Vicinity...
Onset of diurnal cooling, along with weakening upper low over
southern WI, suggest ongoing convection in the vicinity of southern
Lake Michigan should gradually wane this evening. Even so, several
strong/severe thunderstorm clusters have yet to ingest cooler/more
stable boundary layer that is immediately downstream across
southern LM into extreme northeast IN. Marginally severe hail,
locally severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado can be expected
for the next few hours.
...High Plains...
Deep convection is gradually expanding along a corridor from western
SD into the NE Panhandle along cold front that is surging east
ahead of a notable short-wave trough. This activity is expected to
be maintained by increasing LLJ that should increase from western
KS into south-central NE toward 06z.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, extreme buoyancy has
contributed to another bout of diurnally driven thunderstorm clusters
across west TX. Latest satellite imagery suggests ample cloud-top
evacuation is ongoing such that an MCS will likely evolve across
portions of northwest TX over the next few hours. This cluster
should propagate east off the higher terrain into a corridor of
very moist/unstable air which will continue to support hail/wind.
..Darrow.. 05/24/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
It [marriage] happens as with cages: the birds without despair to get in,
and those within despair of getting out.
-- Michel Eyquem de Montaigne
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
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