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LW3DBH > ALERT 25.05.20 02:36z 475 Lines 23049 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 05
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WW 223 SEVERE TSTM TX 250005Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Sun
May 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of northwest into
central Texas
* Effective this Sunday night from 705 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Multiple thunderstorm cluster and boundary mergers are
expected this evening into the early overnight hours. The storms
will primarily be multicell in structure, but strong instability
suggests the potential for large hail with the newer storm
development, and damaging outflow winds after storm mergers and
core collapses.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
40 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north
of Abilene TX to 30 miles south southeast of Junction TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW
220...WW 221...WW 222...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Thompson
WW 222 SEVERE TSTM TX 242255Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Sun
May 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Edwards Plateau
into parts of South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms are expected to develop
and intensify through late evening. Merging outflow and storm
interactions will promote upscale growth, with the potential for
damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out with complex storm interactions. The storm clusters are expected
to spread eastward and southeastward into south central and parts
of deep South Texas early tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Hondo TX to 70 miles south southeast of Laredo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW
220...WW 221...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Thompson
WW 221 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 242235Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sun
May 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central into
southwest Kansas Extreme south central Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled
front from south central Nebraska into southwest Kansas, as well as
along a remnant dryline extending northward into southwest Kansas,
and a residual outflow boundary across central Kansas. The storm
environment primarily favors a mix of multicell clusters and a
low-end supercell threat, with storms capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. Isolated supercells in southeast Colorado
could eventually move into far southwest Kansas later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
of Concordia KS to 5 miles east southeast of Liberal KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW
220...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24020.
...Thompson
WW 220 SEVERE TSTM CO 242145Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Sun
May 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected in the upslope
flow regime across southeast Colorado this afternoon/evening.
A supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat for
large hail and isolated damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Trinidad CO to 40 miles northeast of Springfield CO.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Thompson
WW 219 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 242025Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sun
May 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma West
Texas including the Eastern Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form along the dryline and track
eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible in the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles southeast of
Lubbock TX to 165 miles north of Childress TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24030.
...Hart
WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0223 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...EWX...BRO...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-029-047-127-131-137-163-247-259-265-271-283-311-323-
325-385-427-463-465-479-505-507-250140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BEXAR BROOKS
DIMMIT DUVAL EDWARDS FRIO
JIM HOGG KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LA SALLE MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL STARR UVALDE VAL VERDE
WEBB ZAPATA ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-089-097-101-
105-119-123-129-135-141-145-147-151-155-159-163-165-167-175-183-
185-187-189-195-250140-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS
OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RENO
RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SEWARD SMITH STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS
TREGO
NEC035-059-129-169-181-250140-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SPD TO
10 N SPD TO 40 N EHA.
WW 220 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250300Z.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-250300-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LBB TO
15 E LBB TO 40 NNE PVW TO 45 E LBL.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-045-059-129-250140-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM ELLIS HARPER ROGER MILLS
TXC045-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-191-211-263-269-295-
305-345-433-483-250140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL KENT
KING LIPSCOMB LYNN MOTLEY
STONEWALL WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SJT TO
35 NNW SJT TO 25 ESE BGS TO 40 NNW BGS.
WW 218 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250100Z.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-081-335-415-250100-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COKE MITCHELL SCURRY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE LWD TO
35 WNW LWD TO 40 NW LWD TO 5 SSW DSM.
WW 217 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250100Z.
..SQUITIERI..05/25/20
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-157-171-175-179-
181-185-250100-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR
JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK TAMA
UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0719 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219... FOR NORTHWEST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southeast Texas
Panhandle...Western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...
Valid 250143Z - 250345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219
continues.
SUMMARY...Wind damage and hail threat will continue as a line
moves eastward across northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. The
threat should persist for another hour or two but should decrease
as an outflow boundary moves northwestward across western Oklahoma.
Although watch issuance is unlikely, a local extension can not be
ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows a line of storms from far
northwest Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle and then
south-southeastward into west-central Texas. These storms are located
along and just west of an axis of strong instability where the RAP
is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. This line will
continue to move into the strong instability over the next couple
of hours maintaining a wind damage and hail threat. However, an
outflow boundary is evident on radar imagery, moving northwestward
across southwestern Oklahoma. This outflow boundary will eventually
merge with the convective line resulting in a decrease in the severe
threat later this evening. Although a local extension can not be
ruled out, new weather watch issuance is not expected.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36969951 36059982 35630007 34960068 34490085 33810067
33570006 33899951 34399911 35029834 36169796 36979819 36969951
MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221... FOR CENTRAL
KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...Central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...
Valid 250130Z - 250230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.
SUMMARY...Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing across
WW221. Severe hail and wind are likely to continue with storms across
Kansas through 0500z. Thus, the severe threat continues for WW221.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of strong to severe storms have
maintained their intensity along and east of slow moving cold front
across western Kansas. MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue
to support robust updrafts through the 0500z expiration time
of WW221. Severe hail remains the primary threat for the next
couple of hours with the strong instability and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Recent reports of greater than 2 inch hail across
southwest and central Kansas lends support for a continued severe
hail threat. While vertical shear remains relatively limited at
20-30 kt, the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet may promote
some additional development and organization over the next couple of
hours. This would support a greater threat for damaging winds with
increased momentum transfer in ongoing downdrafts. Hi-resolution
guidance supports this scenario, particularly across central Kansas,
where upscale growth appears likely.
..Lyons.. 05/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37000206 40199924 40199679 37019972 37000206
MD 0717 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... FOR TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS...SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plains...South Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...
Valid 250121Z - 250315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to develop across the eastern
Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastal Plains over the next few hours.
Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS
located across western and central Texas. The southern part of
the MCS consists of a continuous line of strong to severe storms
from the southern Texas Hill Country southward to the Rio Grand,
along an axis of strong instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE
along this corridor from 3500 to 4000 J/kg. The GRK WSR-88D VWP
shows 40 kt of 0-6 km shear with directional shear in the lowest
1 km AGL. This wind profile will support a severe threat with the
more intense parts of the line. Wind damage and an isolated tornado
threat will exist with rotating storms embedded in the line and
with bowing line segments. Hail will also be likely the stronger
cores. The line will move toward the edge of WW 222 over the next
hour, necessitating watch issuance across the Texas Coastal Plains.
..Broyles.. 05/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 29119881 27889908 27269910 26829885 26749807 27019743
27739713 28529631 29689617 30359798 29119881
MD 0715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...West-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242358Z - 250200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop across parts of west-central
Texas over the next couple of hours. Wind damage and hail would be
the primary threat. Weather watch issuance may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a large cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms across west Texas. These storms are moving through a
moderately unstable airmass where surface dewpoints are generally
around 60 F. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear with
the DYX WSR-88D VWP showing 20 kt of 0-6 km shear, low-level lapse
rates have become steep. The RAP has a pocket of 0-3 km lapse rates
near 9.0 C/km to the north of San Angelo. This should be enough
for an isolated wind damage threat as multicell convection moves
northeastward across west-central Texas. Hail could also occur with
the stronger updrafts. These storms will converge with an outflow
boundary coming from the east which may result in increase in the
severe threat later this evening.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33289964 33250044 32720074 32310069 31970060 31180036
30830002 30729925 31029843 31549816 31869824 32849836 33219868
33289964
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748
PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging
wind, are expected through tonight in a broad swath from south
Texas to central Kansas.
...TX to KS...
Early-day thunderstorm clusters that developed over southeast TX
have conglomerated into a larger slow-moving MCS that has negatively
influenced the air mass/buoyancy over much of this region. However,
convective outflow arcs from the upper TX Coast into south-central
TX immediately ahead of a new developing MCS. This upstream MCS
is expected to mature and propagate southeast toward the middle TX
Coast tonight as a reservoir of weakly-capped instability resides
across the warm sector. Have extended higher severe probabilities
into deep south TX to account for this scenario.
Farther north, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should continue
this evening from the TX South Plains into central KS. There is
some indication that strengthening LLJ over western OK this evening
should assist in the longevity of this activity as it propagates
east after sunset. While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong,
approaching short-wave trough and modest shear seem supportive of
hail/wind with this convection.
..Darrow.. 05/25/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Yow! And then we could sit on the hoods of cars at stop lights!
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