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LW3DBH > ALERT 27.05.20 02:25z 105 Lines 5705 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 880_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<EA2RCF<EA5URD
Sent: 200527/0140Z @:EA5URD.EAMU.ESP.EU #:13754 XFBB7.04h Bid:880_LW3DBH
R:200527/0220Z @:ED1ZAC.EAC.ESP.EU #:609 [C.D.G]{EANET1G.06}880_LW3DBH
R:200527/0211Z @:LU4ECL.LP.BA.ARG.SOAM #:34637 [La Plata] FBB7.0.8-beta2
R:200527/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:880 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:880_LW3DBH
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746
PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NEAR THE SABINE VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE...
...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms capable of gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible this evening
from northern Iowa into southern/eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Isolated large hail is possible across the Sabine Valley
as well.
...IA...MN...WI... Scattered storms persist this evening along and
east of the surface trough, and beneath the right-entrance region
of the upper jet. 00Z soundings show moist profiles with modest
instability, with veering winds with height. As of 01Z, effective SRH
values were around 200 m2/s2 from the IA/MN border into northern WI,
and this may still support a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storm
trends are expected to decrease to minimal levels between 03-06Z.
...South TX... Weak height falls/lift and deep, moist profiles have
been sufficient to support scattered storms late this afternoon
and evening, with several possible hail cores noted on radar. The
primary region of concern should continue to be far southeast TX
into southwest LA, where the combination of cold air aloft and
moderate deep-layer shear will support hail. The 00Z SHV sounding
shows impressive moisture content given 500 mb temperatures near
-14 C. However, low-level winds are weak, with little convergence
or focus to support a more widespread severe threat.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2020
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Valid 262158Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...
AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX
...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms capable of gusty winds and
brief tornadoes will continue this afternoon and into this evening
over parts of Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
...South-central/Southeast TX... A risk for isolated severe hail
and locally damaging wind should persist through about sunset. Please
see MCD 737 for further information.
...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to reflect
current convective trends, no appreciable changes are being made
to the current outlook. Thunderstorms are ongoing across a large
portion of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Given the enhanced
low-level shear north and east of the Kansas-City-area surface
low, organized storms -- including a few severe storms capable
of producing occasional gusty/locally damaging winds and brief
tornadoes -- will continue into this evening.
Elsewhere, limited/low-end risk for gusty winds or a brief tornado
remains possible across portions of the South Carolina vicinity
later tonight, as a weak low over northern Florida drifts northward.
..Grams/Goss.. 05/26/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/
...Upper MS Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a low to the
south of Kansas City, with a baroclinic zone extending northward from
the low into western IA and southern MN. The low is forecast to move
slowly northward today, with an associated zone of enhanced southerly
low-level winds moving across the warm sector. Visible satellite
imagery shows substantial heating is occurring over this zone, with
dewpoints near 70 and anticipated afternoon MLCAPE values around
1000 J/kg. Storms are expected to develop ahead of the low over
southern IA by mid-afternoon and track northward into southeast
MN and western WI through the evening. Low-level shear will be
sufficiently strong to support supercell structures capable of
gusty/damaging wind gusts and perhaps tornadoes.
...SC... Numerous thunderstorms are occurring today off the east
coast of FL, with multiple MCVs noted in radar imagery southeast of
Jacksonville. This area of rotation will lift northward through
the forecast period and approach the SC coast late tonight.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the strength of
low-level shear and the character of the convection in this area.
Nevertheless, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area and low
tornado/wind probabilities.
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Although it is still a truism in industry that "no one was ever fired for
buying IBM," Bill O'Neil, the chief technology officer at Drexel Burnham
Lambert, says he knows for a fact that someone has been fired for just
that reason. He knows it because he fired the guy.
"He made a bad decision, and what it came down to was, 'Well, I
bought it because I figured it was safe to buy IBM,'" Mr. O'Neil says.
"I said, 'No. Wrong. Game over. Next contestant, please.'"
-- The Wall Street Journal, December 6, 1989
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