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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.08.20 15:30z 319 Lines 17601 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14 08
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 434 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 140550Z - 141300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri
Aug 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Dakota
Extreme north central South Dakota
* Effective this Friday morning from 1250 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very
large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging
winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms, including bowing segments and
some embedded supercell structures, will persist overnight while
moving eastward over southern North Dakota and adjacent northern
South Dakota. The storms will be capable of producing damaging
winds and large hail through the early morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south of
Dickinson ND to 40 miles south southeast of Jamestown ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Thompson
WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW Y22 TO
35 SSE DIK TO 35 N Y22 TO 35 SW N60.
..GLEASON..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-015-021-029-037-041-043-045-047-051-059-085-093-141040-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS
GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX STUTSMAN
SDC021-031-089-141040-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON MCPHERSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW VVV TO
40 SSW DTL TO 40 NW BRD TO 30 SSE BJI TO 45 W HIB TO 30 SSE INL TO
30 SE INL.
..GLEASON..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC021-035-051-061-071-111-159-167-140740-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CROW WING GRANT ITASCA
KOOCHICHING OTTER TAIL WADENA WILKIN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail,
and perhaps a few tornadoes, will be possible from North Dakota this
morning into Minnesota and the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon
and evening. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of the central Plains and into the Texas Panhandle.
...Synopsis... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the northern High Plains into the upper MS
Valley by tonight, as an attendant surface low moves from the Dakotas
into the upper Great Lakes region and a cold front moves through
the northern Plains. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will remain in place
over the Southwest, while a weak upper trough persists over the East.
...Northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... One or
more thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing across ND this
morning in advance of the approaching shortwave trough, while
elevated convection will also likely be persisting across some part
of central/northern MN. The influence and evolution of the morning
storms and their related outflow casts considerable uncertainty on
the severe threat later in the day.
However, a substantial severe weather threat may evolve across
central/northern MN if sufficient airmass recovery can occur by
afternoon. Increasing flow in the lower-mid troposphere in response
to the approaching shortwave and attendant surface low will enhance
deep-layer shear and low-level shear/helicity by early afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate-to-strong buoyancy
if sufficient heating can occur.
Any ongoing complex across ND will likely move east-northeastward
through the morning, posing a threat of damaging wind and perhaps
some hail. This threat could persist into northwest MN by early
afternoon, with a corridor of severe/damaging wind possible along
its track. Additional development is expected further south along
the cold front by mid/late afternoon, with shear profiles initially
favoring a semi-discrete mode and the potential for supercells
posing a threat of large hail (possibly significant) and locally
damaging wind gusts. Any supercells in the vicinity of a potentially
retreating outflow boundary will also pose a tornado threat,
especially if the boundary sets up across central or northern MN,
where wind profiles would be more favorable compared to areas further
south. Convection may take on a more linear mode with time, which
would result in damaging wind eventually becoming the primary threat.
Storms will spread into western WI by evening, with a gradually
decreasing severe threat. Convection may also build into portions of
eastern NE/western IA along the front by early evening, and spread
southeastward with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind.
...Central/southern High Plains... Widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected late this afternoon along the cold front
across western KS, and further southward into the TX Panhandle
where strong heating will erode weak MLCINH. Steep low-level lapse
rates and large DCAPE will support a threat of isolated downbursts,
while steep midlevel lapse rates may support some hail potential,
especially across western KS where northwesterly midlevel flow is
forecast to be somewhat stronger.
...ArkLaTex into Mississippi... Elevated convection will likely
be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere in the ArkLaTex
vicinity. Instability and deep-layer shear will be sufficient to
support an isolated wind/hail threat for at least a few hours this
morning. There is some potential for an outflow-driven cluster,
aided by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough, to progress
further southeast into MS through the day, which could pose a threat
of locally damaging wind.
..Dean/Bentley.. 08/14/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA...THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY...AND THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind
gusts and hail will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening from
parts of the Great Lakes southwestward into east-central Missouri,
over the northern Minnesota vicinity, and over parts of the central
and southern High Plains. Locally gusty winds will also be possible
across portions of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Synopsis... A large upper ridge -- centered over the Desert
Southwest, will continue to prevail across the western half of the
country Saturday. On the eastern side of the ridge, several weak
disturbances are expected to pivot southward across the southern
Rockies/central and southern High Plains region.
Over the north-central U.S., several fast-moving cyclonic
disturbances -- embedded in northwesterly flow -- will shift across
the Canadian Prairie and adjacent north-central states, and into
the Upper Great Lakes region. Farther east, a weak/slow-moving
upper trough will move slowly eastward across the Appalachians
through the period.
...Lower Michigan vicinity to east-central Missouri... Moderate
destabilization is expected from Lower Michigan southwestward
into Missouri, along and ahead of a weak surface front/trough.
With weak disturbances embedded within slightly enhanced (around 20
kt) mid-level northwesterly flow, large-scale ascent -- focused near
the weak surface boundary -- should support a broken band of showers
and thunderstorms -- peaking in coverage through the afternoon and
into the evening hours. Stronger storms across the region will be
capable of producing gusty winds -- possibly approaching severe
levels locally, along with marginal hail. Threat will diminish
later in the evening and into the overnight hours in tandem with
diurnal stabilization.
...Parts of the central and southern High Plains vicinity... Several
cyclonic mid-level disturbances moving southward across the southern
Rockies vicinity will support afternoon storm development over the
higher terrain of New Mexico and northward in a more isolated manner
into Colorado, as moderate destabilization occurs in conjunction
with daytime heating. A deep mixed layer evolving beneath moderate
CAPE above will result in potential for stronger storms to producing
locally strong wind gusts, along with some potential for upscale
growth along convective outflows. Storms could spread eastward
into parts of the southern High Plains/Texas Panhandle later in
the afternoon/early evening, with attendant risk for locally severe
wind gusts.
...Parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia... Modest
instability/weak lapse rates should characterize the thermodynamic
environment from southern Virginia southward to Georgia Saturday,
ahead of the weak/slowly advancing upper trough. Still, with ample
large-scale ascent, expect widespread thunderstorms by afternoon
across the area.
With 20 to 25 kt mid-level southwesterlies expected across the area,
resulting/modest shear could support semi-organized/multicell
clusters, capable of producing gusty winds locally -- possible
sufficient for some tree damage. Threat will peak by late afternoon,
before diminishing gradually into the evening hours.
...Northern Minnesota area... Weak afternoon destabilization is
expected across northern Minnesota and vicinity in tandem with
daytime heating. As a series of cyclonic disturbances within
enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow shift across the north-central
U.S., isolated to scattered storm development may occur across
this area. Given rather fast-moving storms and somewhat dry lower
levels, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur with one or two of
the strongest storms through early evening.
..Goss.. 08/14/2020
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220
AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO VICINITY...
...SUMMARY... A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms capable
of producing gusty winds and hail will be possible across much of
Ohio and portions of adjacent states, and over the northeast New
Mexico vicinity on Sunday. Upper disturbances crossing the southern
Rockies/southern High Plains area, and a short-wave trough crossing
the Great Lakes region, will both be associated with areas of active
convection and low-end severe risk.
...Synopsis... A general western ridge/eastern trough configuration
of the upper flow field will continue over the U.S. on Sunday.
...Ohio and vicinity... As a very weak surface trough/front shifts
slowly eastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley, in tandem with
mid-level short-wave troughing, modest afternoon destabilization
across the Ohio area will likely support an uptick in afternoon storm
development. Aided by a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies, a
few organized/fast-moving multicell clusters may produce near-severe
wind gusts through early evening.
...Northeast New Mexico area... Afternoon thunderstorm development
is forecast over the higher terrain of southern Colorado and into
northeastern New Mexico, as weak cyclonic disturbances aloft continue
to move southward across this region, within northerly anticyclonic
flow. Daytime heating will support sufficient destabilization
to fuel convective initiation, and with 20 to 25 kt northerlies
aloft atop low-level southerly flow, shear sufficient to support
semi-organized updrafts is expected. This -- combined with a deep
mixed layer over the High Plains -- suggests potential for locally
strong/damaging wind gusts through early evening.
..Goss.. 08/14/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable large-scale
agreement through the period, with respect to the synoptic flow
field aloft across the CONUS. In general, broad western U.S. ridging
will be maintained, while troughing persists over the eastern states.
Within this pattern, any more substantial severe risk would likely be
confined to a zone from the northern Plains vicinity southeastward
across the upper Midwest, beneath an enhanced belt of northwesterly
flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of the western ridge.
As small-scale disturbances embedded within the northwesterly flow
field traverse the region, daily episodes of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are expected.
With this said, narrowing down more specific regions -- and specific
days -- where risk may be greater, cannot be accomplished with
sufficient confidence due to the small-scale nature of the forcing
mechanisms. Therefore, low predictability precludes delineation
of any risk areas through the medium-range period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the northern
Rockies this afternoon with moderate mid-level flow along the
southern periphery of this trough. Some of this stronger flow will
overspread portions of southeast Idaho, southwest Wyoming, and
northern Utah where fuels are dry and deep mixing is expected. Winds
are expected to reach 15 mph with relative humidity of 10 to 15
percent justifying an elevated fire weather area.
Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern and
eastern Montana this afternoon. However, wetting rain is occurring
Thursday night where the driest and windiest conditions are expected
this afternoon. Elsewhere, near dry fuels, winds and relative
humidity are not expected to be as strong/dry.
Thunderstorms are expected along the Sierra crest this afternoon.
Storm motions are expected to be slow and PWAT values are forecast
to be 0.9 inches. In addition, much of this area has seen rainfall
from thunderstorms on past days and thus dry fuels may be more
sparse. Given all of these factors, the isolated dry thunderstorm
area from Day 2 was not continued into Day 1.
..Bentley.. 08/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will slowly shift eastward on
Saturday which will allow some Pacific moisture to surge northward
into the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms are expected to
develop from southern Oregon into the Sierra and northwest Nevada
Saturday afternoon. Upper-level forcing will be weak which should
keep storms isolated. However, this area has seen very little
rainfall recently and thus ignitions are likely with any lightning.
Otherwise, winds will remain light across most of the Western CONUS,
limiting the overall fire weather threat.
..Bentley.. 08/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Yo voy donde no haya entes que me digan nada y tenga que rendir examen de
pureza entre impuros.
-- Atahualpa Yupanqui.
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