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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.08.20 17:03z 79 Lines 4186 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23667_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20 08
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200820/1700Z 23667@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of producing locally
gusty/damaging winds may occur across portions of the Upper
Great Lakes region/upper Midwest, and also across portions of the
Northeast/New England Saturday.
...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper flow field is
progged for Saturday, as a short-wave trough moving across the
Northwest will yield slight flattening of the western U.S. ridge,
while the persistent trough aligned along the lower Mississippi
River Valley early in the period likewise weakens.
Meanwhile, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the
upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes with time,
accompanied by a weak/southeastward-moving cold front. By the
end of the period, this front should extend from the Upper Great
Lakes west-southwestward to the Nebraska vicinity. Elsewhere,
a weak baroclinic zone should linger across New England, while a
cold front crosses the northern Intermountain region.
...Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest region... Afternoon
destabilization near and ahead of the weak/advancing surface front
is expected, though tempered in some areas by the likelihood for
lingering/ongoing convection. Still, as storms increase in coverage
through the afternoon, an uptick in storm intensity is also expected
-- aided by moderate deep-layer wind field accompanying the advancing
short-wave trough. Locally, a few stronger storms may produce gusty
winds and marginal hail, with severe risk appearing sufficient to
warrant inclusion of 5%/MRGL risk for afternoon and evening storms.
...Northern New York into New England... Modest diurnal
destabilization in the vicinity of a lingering/weak surface
baroclinic zone, combined with enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow
aloft, will likely result in another day of scattered, fast-moving
afternoon storms. As is expected for Friday, a few of these storms
may again become organized/locally severe, capable mainly of local
tree damage, with risk lingering into the evening before diminishing
in conjunction with nocturnal cooling.
..Goss.. 08/20/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the medium-range models continue to
show reasonable large-scale agreement, with a continued depiction
of a general trend toward less amplified/more zonal flow over
the CONUS. However, smaller-scale features continue to be handled
differently in terms of magnitude and progression. Thus, given that
these smaller-scale features will remain the primary modulators
of severe potential during the period, no areal delineations of
potentially greater severe risk can be confidently highlighted
through the period.
There remains some hint in the models that an increase in convection
-- and potentially some severe potential -- may increase on or
around Day 6 over the north central U.S., but uncertainty remains
rather substantial with respect to any details. This uncertainty
increases through the latter stages of the period; aside from this,
no other obvious/potentially more organized severe weather episodes
are apparent at this time.
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No sigas el camino; ve por donde no halla vereda y deja una huella.
-- Anonimo.
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