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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.09.20 16:06z 190 Lines 10399 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24527_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 200903/1600Z 24527@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238
AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Damaging wind gusts and a
few tornadoes should be the main threats.
...Middle Atlantic...
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough over
southwestern MB/eastern ND, digging southeast line with latest model
guidance. Height falls ahead of this feature should encourage a
notable short-wave trough over the Mid-South to eject northeast
before approaching the Middle Atlantic by early afternoon. At
03/0530z, radar data exhibited a small cluster of thunderstorms
immediately ahead of the southern short wave near the KY/TN border.
This activity should advance across the TN Valley into WV early in
the period before appreciable surface heating enhances buoyancy
downstream. It appears the greatest corridor of steep low-level
lapse rates should be in the lee of the central Appalachians from
VA into southern NJ where temperatures should rise into the upper
80s-90F. 00z NAM suggests a 50kt 500mb speed max will translate
across WV by 18z, then off the NJ coast by 04/00z.
Latest thinking is scattered deep convection should begin
to intensify ahead of the short wave by late morning across the
higher terrain of the central Appalachians, then spread/develop east
toward the Delmarva within a plume of high-PW air (2+ inches). While
mid-level lapse rates will necessarily be modest due to the abundant
PW, robust updrafts are expected given the shear/buoyancy. Forecast
soundings suggest discrete supercells are possible and latest CAMs
support this scenario. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect
for a corridor of enhanced robust convection continue. While a
few tornadoes are certainly possible, the primary threat should be
damaging winds, especially if bow-type structures ultimately evolve.
...Lower MI...
Strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
during the day as 90kt mid-level speed max translates across WI
into northern Lower MI. While forecast instability will not be that
significant, soundings across lower MI suggest convection should
easily develop along a strongly forced surface front. Gusty winds
will likely be noted with this diurnally enhanced convection.
...South-Central TX...
A weakness in the mid-level height field will become detached from
stronger flow aloft over central TX later this morning. This feature
should drift south during the day encouraging the primary zone of
low-level convergence to sag into south-central TX. Strong diurnal
heating is expected to aid buoyancy for at least isolated robust
convection. Gusty winds should be the primary threat with storms
that propagate south across this region.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/03/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133
PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast over
the Lower 48 states on Friday.
...Synopsis... Model guidance continues to show a large-scale mid-
to upper-level trough residing over the Midwest into the Northeast
U.S. on Friday. Farther south, a mid-level anticyclone extending
from the western Atlantic into the Deep South will aid in limiting
storm coverage from SC westward to the central Gulf Coastal Plain.
A decaying mid-level trough is forecast over east TX while a
mid-level ridge influences conditions across much of the West.
In the low levels, a weakening cold front will become draped from
the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the lower MS Valley and
focus isolated showers/thunderstorms during the day. Only general
thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday for the Gulf Coast
states into the Mid-Atlantic states.
..Smith.. 09/03/2020
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224
AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over
parts of the Corn Belt Saturday night.
...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level anticyclone will remain
centered over UT/AZ while a belt of strong northwesterly mid-level
flow is maintained across the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes as a large-scale trough resides over eastern Canada and
the Northeast. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to rapidly
move from MT east-southeastward into the mid MS Valley during
the period. As this occurs, a surface low will develop over
the Dakotas and a warm front over the central Great Plains will
advance north/northeast. Southerly low-level flow will advect
mid 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints north into parts of the lower MO
Valley by early evening. Strengthening warm air advection aided
by a developing southwesterly LLJ after dark will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms developing during the late evening
perhaps as far west as southeast SD and increasing in coverage during
the overnight as this activity spreads east/southeast. The eastern
periphery of a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km)
and strong effective shear may favor large hail with the stronger
elevated cores. An isolated damaging gust may also occur given the
presence of steep lapse rates and the possibility for an organized
thunderstorm cluster to develop. Uncertainty primarily related
to convective evolution precludes higher severe probabilities this
outlook update.
..Smith.. 09/03/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION... The suite of medium-range model guidance is
converging towards a solution featuring a belt of strong westerly
flow across the Dakotas into the MS Valley on Sunday /day 4/ as a
larger-scale trough begins to amplify over the northern High Plains
by Monday. Appreciable uncertainty exists for the possibility of
severe thunderstorms for parts of the western Great Lakes on Sunday.
Model spread becomes relatively large by Monday and especially late
in the extended period with models differing substantially in the
evolution of the large-scale trough over the central U.S. between
a more progressive vs. closed-low scenario.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... High pressure is forecast to build across much of the
western CONUS today as mid-level cyclonic flow becomes entrenched
across the Midwest and eastern US. Warm and dry conditions are
expected underneath the ridge, where boundary-layer flow will be
predominately weak. Widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions appear unlikely across much of the West. However,
localized pockets of stronger winds, in proximity to terrain,
may result in some exaggerated fire behavior.
...Green River Basin... Locally elevated fire weather conditions
may develop in the afternoon on the fringes of the upper-level ridge
across Wyoming. Surface conditions will be warm and dry, with RH
near 10%. Much of the stronger upper-level flow will be displaced
to the northeast, and the lack of stronger boundary-layer flow,
and a relative minimum in vegetation, should keep the threat for
critical fire weather conditions local in nature.
...Montana... Gusty winds of 20-25 mph in the wake of the departing
cold front may result in locally elevated fire weather conditions
through the day. Humidity values will likely remain outside of
criteria for widespread elevated fire weather potential due to
cooler temperatures. However, a few pockets of locally elevated
fire weather conditions may develop.
..Lyons.. 09/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... The building ridge will continue to strengthen across
the West as a shortwave impulse and stronger flow aloft develops
off of the Pacific Coast. Underneath the ridge, a thermally induced
surface pressure trough is forecast to stretch from California
into southern Oregon, increasing the potential for gusty winds and
elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, warm and dry weather
will persist with low potential for widespread fire weather concerns.
...California into Southern Oregon... With high pressure firmly
established over much of the West daytime high temperatures are
forecast to be well above average. The increased heating should
favor the development of gusty surface winds in proximity to
the surface pressure trough. Increased mid-level flow from the
offshore shortwave will also mix higher momentum to the surface,
with model soundings showing 15-25 mph winds developing near peak
heating. With surface RH near 20%, elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions appear likely.
Weak offshore flow may develop across southern California in the
afternoon, coincident with peak heating and the maximum influence
of the thermal surface pressure trough. While the magnitude of
boundary-layer flow is forecast to be weak, dry surface conditions
may result in locally elevated fire weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 09/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Todo esta contado; la forma cambia. La forma es el mar, es insondable.
-- Manuel Vicent.
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