| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 04.09.20 16:07z 174 Lines 9536 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24580_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<GB7COW<N9PMO<VE3UIL<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 200904/1600Z 24580@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across
the contiguous United States today.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley today as high pressure aloft remains over much
of the western U.S. and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians.
Thunderstorms could develop along and ahead of the front, especially
in the higher terrain. Further to the west, a moist and unstable
airmass will be place today from the southern Plains eastward into
the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms could develop along
pre-existing outflow boundaries as surface temperatures warm during
the day. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak today
across most of the south-central and southeastern U.S., making
organized convection unlikely.
..Broyles.. 09/04/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227
AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible over southern Minnesota and Iowa Saturday night.
...MN/IA vicinity... A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over UT/AZ, will overspread the Dakotas into the Corn
Belt on Saturday and Saturday night. A mid-level disturbance is
forecast to rapidly move from MT east-southeastward into IA by
daybreak Sunday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will develop
over the Dakotas and a warm front over the central Great Plains
will advance north/northeast.
Model output is consistent in depicting southerly low-level flow
advecting richer moisture northward into the lower to mid MO Valley
with mid 60s reaching western IA by late evening. Strengthening warm
air advection aided by a developing southwesterly 45-kt LLJ after
dark will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms developing
during the evening in eastern SD/southwestern MN with increasing
thunderstorm coverage in the form of a cluster and/or MCS spreading
east-southeast. The eastern periphery of a plume of steep 700-500
mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong effective shear may favor
large hail with the stronger elevated cores. An isolated damaging
gust may also occur given the presence of steep lapse rates and
the possibility for an organized thunderstorm cluster to develop.
..Smith.. 09/04/2020
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200
AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA
EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Great Lakes
on Sunday and Sunday night.
...IA eastward into Lower MI... Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across parts of IA eastward into WI and perhaps
northern IL on Sunday morning. A couple of strong thunderstorms are
possible with this morning activity as a 50-kt southwesterly LLJ is
maintained over the mid MS Valley and into the central Great Lakes
during the day. A disturbance embedded in fast west-northwesterly
mid-level flow will quickly move into the southern Great Lakes
by midday. As this occurs, thunderstorms will likely weaken on
the northeast periphery of an instability axis located farther west
over IA into WI.
Models show an amplifying shortwave trough over south-central Canada
during the day as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the
Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes by late evening. A cold
front will sharpen across the upper MS Valley and push southeastward
into the western Great Lakes and mid MS Valley after dark. It is
unclear how far southwest additional storms will develop along the
front late. The most probable scenario appears to be elevated storms
developing overnight across Lower MI. An isolated risk for severe
may accompany the stronger elevated storms as they quickly move east.
..Smith.. 09/04/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to show the
development of a large-scale upper trough over the Rockies early in
the extended period. Models are converging towards a scenario of a
mid-level low evolving from the trough and slowly migrating eastward
across the central U.S. late in the work week. Severe thunderstorm
potential will likely focus during the early part of the week before
a cold front sweeps southward through much of the central U.S.
Predictability concerns for thunderstorm placement and severity
are quite uncertain at this time from the southwest Great Lakes
southwestward into the central Great Plains.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will dominate the western US
today as a shortwave trough develops off the Pacific and around the
periphery of the ridge. Very warm conditions will develop beneath the
ridge with record high temperatures expected across much of the West.
Localized areas of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible.
...Southern Oregon into portions of the Great Basin... The approach
of the Pacific shortwave trough will increase mid-level flow slightly
on the western edge of the ridge coincident with peak heating. Deeply
mixed profiles and the presence of a thermal trough should support
an increase in downward momentum transport bolstering low-level
flow to 15-20 mph. While not overly strong, the increased flow and
humidity of 10-15% will support elevated fire weather conditions.
...Northern High Plains... Gusty winds and low humidity of 20-25%
behind the departing cold front may pose a risk for locally elevated
fire weather conditions where fuels are receptive to spread.
..Lyons.. 09/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...
...Synopsis... Ridging over the West will continue to intensify
as a shortwave trough flattens the top of the ridge bringing gusty
winds and a cold front to the northern Rockies. Under the ridge,
well above average temperatures are expected. Gusty winds will
accompany a strong thermal trough and very dry conditions across
much of southern California.
...Idaho and southwest Montana into Wyoming... Critical fire
weather conditions are forecast to develop over eastern Idaho
and southwestern Montana along and ahead of a dry cold front and
deepening area of low pressure. A 50 to 60 kt mid-level jet and
strong pressure gradient will support sustained surface winds of
25-30 mph with higher gusts. Humidity of 10-20% from warm surface
temperatures is expected to overlap with critically dry fuels
supporting widespread critical fire weather conditions.
Across Wyoming, a lee trough is forecast to develop in the afternoon
ahead of the approaching dry front. While displaced somewhat from
the stronger mid-level flow and shortwave trough, low-level winds
are forecast to reach around 20 mph. The combination of gusty winds,
humidity values of 10-20%, and dry fuels should support widespread
elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions.
...Columbia Basin... Gusty west winds are expected behind a
front/trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. Strong heating on
the edge of high pressure aloft will support very dry conditions
with RH as low as 10%. While winds will not be overly strong,
frequent gusts to near 20 mph and the low humidity will support
elevated fire weather potential.
...Southern California... Near record heat will help generate a
strong thermal trough/low across the Mojave Desert and into central
California. The increasing wind speeds, combined with very warm and
dry surface conditions may support locally elevated fire weather
conditions. Current forecast guidance suggests the threat will
remain rather localized, but additional areas may be highlighted
if more widespread conditions appear likely in subsequent updates.
..Lyons.. 09/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
La perseverancia refleja siempre el estado de nuestra vida interior, de
nuestra filosofia y de nuestra perspectiva.
-- David Guterson.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
