| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 05.09.20 16:06z 217 Lines 12511 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24625_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200905/1600Z 24625@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with isolated large hail and
wind damage may develop tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest.
...Upper Midwest... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in
place across the north-central U.S. today into tonight. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from southern
Canada into the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Ahead
of the shortwave trough, moisture advection will occur across
the central and northern Plains resulting in a corridor of
instability from northern Missouri into southeast South Dakota by
this evening. Thunderstorm development will likely take place along
the nose of the low-level jet from northeastern South Dakota into
southwest Minnesota during the mid evening. From late evening into
the overnight period, convective coverage is forecast to expand
eastward the upper Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms that develop on the nose of the low-level jet during
the mid to late evening will do so over the top of a sharp capping
inversion. NAM forecast soundings at 06Z in western Minnesota show
moderately instability starting at 700 mb with MUCAPE near 2500
J/kg. Effective shear is forecast to be near 70 kt with mid-level
lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km. This environment should support the
development of supercells with large hail. The large hail threat
is expected to be maintained across southern Minnesota during the
early overnight period. Further to the southeast across northeast
Iowa, the surface inversion is not forecast to be as sharp. This
may allow for strong wind gusts to reach the surface associated
with supercells or multicell line segments. The severe threat should
become marginal during the overnight period as the convection moves
eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley.
..Broyles/Cook.. 09/05/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA
TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into
the central Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. Damaging gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.
...IA eastward into Lower MI... Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing from southeast MN southeastward into IA/WI and
perhaps northern IL on Sunday morning in association with elevated,
warm-advection thunderstorms on the nose of a strong southwesterly
LLJ. The early day activity may pose an isolated risk for large
hail or a localized threat for damaging gusts before weakening
by late morning. The mid-level disturbance responsible for the
morning thunderstorms is forecast to move quickly east across the
southern Great Lakes. A warm front will advance northeastward
across Lower MI during the day but residual convection will outrun
the destabilizing warm sector located farther southwest.
Models continue to show an amplifying mid-level shortwave trough over
south-central Canada as a surface low deepens over western Ontario.
By the early evening, weak mid-level height falls will gradually
overspread the Upper Midwest the western Great Lakes as a cold
front sharpens and pushes southeastward into the mid MS Valley.
It appears increasingly plausible that scattered thunderstorms will
develop from eastern IA across southern WI and northern IL during
the evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a strengthening low- to
mid-level wind profile will favor organized thunderstorms. Isolated
severe gusts resulting in scattered wind damage and large hail
are possible with the stronger thunderstorms and bowing segments.
Farther east/northeast, weaker instability (MUCAPE 1000 J/kg or less)
may temper the overall severe risk. Yet, the strong flow fields
in the presence of thunderstorms may yield a risk for damaging gusts.
..Smith.. 09/05/2020
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221
AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms
are possible over the lower Missouri Valley Monday evening.
...Synopsis... A belt of strong cyclonic flow will extend from an
amplifying mid-level trough over the northern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains eastward across the north-central Great Plains and
into the Great Lakes. A potent mid-level shortwave trough located
over central Ontario and the northern Great Lakes, will move into
northern Quebec. In the low levels, a cold front associated with
the Great Lakes/Canadian disturbance will extend west-southwestward
through the mid MS Valley while another cold front sweeps southward
through the central High Plains late.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the day along the trailing
portion of the boundary from the OH Valley into the mid MS Valley.
Weakening low-level convergence will act to limit storm intensity.
Farther west over the lower MO Valley, strengthening warm air
advection by early evening may lead to isolated thunderstorms
developing near or north of the surface front. Steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates and strong effective shear may enable a few stronger
cores to be capable of a marginal hail threat.
..Smith.. 09/05/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... The potential for severe thunderstorms during the
extended range will likely focus on Tuesday (day 4) with decreasing
potential expected thereafter. A large-scale trough over the central
Rockies will amplify as it moves into the central High Plains.
A strong cold front will surge southward through the High Plains.
A threat for organized strong to severe thunderstorms could occur
but the anafrontal character of the cold front and placement of
the boundary preclude the introduction of a severe highlight over
parts of the lower MO Valley into the southern Plains. By the mid
to late part of the week, a mid-level low will probably evolve over
the central U.S. with only slight eastward progression expected.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL IDAHO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA...
...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern across the Lower 48 will be
characterized by a strong (600+ dm) ridge centered across the western
Great Basin and a broad, low-amplitude trough over across the Great
Lakes and adjacent areas of southeastern Canada. Between these
two larger-scale features, a very strong mid-level jet will reside
from the Pacific Northwest eastward across the western Great Lakes
and New England. The combination of this westerly flow aloft and
a surface low/trough over the western Dakotas and vicinity during
the afternoon will foster areas of enhanced westerly surface flow
across a broad part of the northwestern U.S., with hot and dry
surface conditions contributing to elevated to critical fire-weather.
...Broad portions of the northwestern U.S.... The aforementioned
synoptic pattern will foster continued hot and dry surface conditions
through the afternoon and early evening, with surface temperatures
in the 90s/low 100s F and sub 15% area-wide RH values contributing
to potentially extreme fire behavior given very dry fuels states.
At this time, critical fire-weather highlights have been focused
across portions of central Idaho and western Montana, where surface
winds are expected to exceed 20-25 mph for several hours during
peak heating. Surrounding this area, wind speeds should largely
fall just shy of critical thresholds (15-20 mph), although dry
fuels will continue to support an environment characteristic of
extreme fire behavior across the entire region.
...Southern Washington State and northern Oregon... A similar regime
to that described across much of the northwestern U.S. will reside
in this region by peak heating hours. Heating/insolation will aid
in development of sub-critical (15% or less) RH values during the
afternoon and evening. Localized terrain forcing will contribute to
areas of 15-20 mph surface winds by afternoon also - particularly
within the elevated delineation. Lastly, dry fuels in the region
will continue to promote fire spread through peak heating hours.
...A small part of southern California... The combination of a
surface high in the western Great Basin and strong troughing across
the Lower Colorado River Valley will promote areas of breezy surface
winds near/inland of the San Diego vicinity. Latest fuels guidance
suggests the presence of dry fuels susceptible to fire growth -
particularly in terrain-favored areas where surface winds may
exceed 20 mph at times. The overall scenario supports an elevated
delineation and will be revisited in a later forecast update.
..Cook.. 09/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO...NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis... Western U.S. ridging will begin to weaken and
retreat toward the West Coast as broader/larger-scale troughing
develops across the northern tier of the CONUS. This will result
in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from Washington State through
the northern Rockies and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface,
a strong trough/cold front will shift eastward across the central
Plains, with relatively dry air building southeastward along and
behind its axis. A high will also remain centered across the
central Rockies.
...Eastern Oregon eastward to southern Wyoming/northern Colorado...
Vertical mixing processes beneath the axis of enhanced mid-level
flow will result in an axis of 20+ mph surface flow from southern
Idaho into northwestern Colorado. This flow will occur within a
dry surface airmass, with a combination of single-digit RH values,
very dry fuels, high ERCs, and 80s to 90s F surface temperatures
supporting a critical burn environment. The critical area has
been drawn for areas most likely to experience 20 mph surface flow
amidst these dry conditions. Winds should be slightly weaker in
surrounding areas.
...North Dakota southward through eastern Colorado... The surface
pressure gradient surrounding a steep trough traversing the region
will result in areas of strong surface winds - especially in the
Dakotas and central Nebraska where 20-30 mph speeds will become
common. The airmass behind the surface trough will be dry also,
with surface warming contributing to critically low (5-15%) RH values
as temperatures rise into the 90s. The best juxtaposition of low
RH and strong wind speeds will reside in portions of Nebraska and
southern South Dakota, where a critical area has been introduced for
this update. Pending RH trends farther north into South Dakota,
this critical area may need to be expanded northward. Areawide,
fuels are dry and supportive of fire spread.
..Cook.. 09/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
No interesa lo pequeno que parezca el comienzo.
-- Henry David Thoreau. (1817-1862) Escritor, poeta y pensador.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
