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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.02.19 07:13z 141 Lines 7539 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 02
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Fri Feb 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... An isolated strong thunderstorm or two may impact
portions of the Sacramento Valley this afternoon, accompanied by
at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Strong lower/mid tropospheric cyclogenesis is
ongoing near the Pacific Northwest coast. Models suggest that
the cyclone may deepen further through this afternoon, aided by
forcing associated with an intense mid-level jet (110+ kt at 500 mb)
digging to the west of coastal areas, before beginning to weaken
and gradually turn/redevelop inland of the Oregon coast late in
the period.
At the same time, it appears that the increasingly deformed
remnants of a mid-level low (now turning inland of the central
California coast) will accelerate within broader scale cyclonic
flow across the Four Corners region and southern Rockies, into
the central Plains by 12Z Sunday. This probably will be preceded
by at least one perturbation within the subtropical stream, which
appears likely to accelerate across parts of southwest Texas and the
Texas South Plains, into broader scale anticyclonic flow across the
Ozark Plateau (on the northwestern periphery of persistent prominent
mid-level subtropical ridging becoming centered over the southeast
Gulf/Caribbean/Bahamas vicinity).
In lower levels, cold surface ridging will generally remain prominent
across most areas east of the higher Plains. Appreciable boundary
layer moistening likely will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico.
But elevated moisture return above a residual near-surface stable
layer may commence off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the
southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the same time
mid/high-level moisture return will continue in association with
the westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
...Oregon coastal areas into northern California... Despite the
lack of moisture return from the subtropical Pacific, very cold
mid-level air accompanying the digging cyclone may contribute
to sufficient destabilization for occasional isolated to widely
scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm development today.
However, models do suggest that strong deep layer shear and sizable
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may develop by this afternoon
near/east of pre-frontal surface troughing across the Sacramento
Valley. This is where orography and forcing associated with weak
low-level warm advection may aid convective development in the
presence of at least weak destabilization. Some guidance (perhaps
most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that this may include
boundary layer CAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg, which could be
sufficient to support a low-topped supercell or two. This may be
accompanied by the risk for a tornado, before damaging convective
gusts become the primary potential severe hazard. Some hail is
possible, but this seems likely to remain mostly below severe limits.
...Southern Plains into Mississippi Valley... Forecast soundings
suggest that at least some lightning could accompany convection
associated with the elevated moisture return and associated weak
destabilization, anywhere from the Texas South Plains into the Ozark
Plateau, today through tonight. However, it still remains unclear
if, and more precisely where, the coverage of any such activity
will exceed the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical
thunderstorm area.
..Kerr/Wendt.. 02/09/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CST Sat Feb 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of the southern Plains on Sunday and Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the
western states on Sunday as southwest mid-level flow remains over
the south-central U.S. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to
take place across the eastern third of Texas and Louisiana during the
day as a belt of strong low-level flow sets up across the southern
Plains. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the corridor
with the strongest flow from central Texas north northeastward into
southeastern Oklahoma. Instability is forecast to be weak across the
southern Plains limiting a severe threat there. Elsewhere across
the CONUS, thunderstorms are not expected to develop Sunday or
Sunday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 02/09/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Fri Feb 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lift out of southern
California and through the Four Corners region today. In response to
this trough, surface low pressure will develop from eastern Arizona,
migrating into eastern Colorado by the end of the period. Portions of
southeast Arizona will see surface winds of 15-20 mph with afternoon
RH approaching 10-20%. Fuels will generally be unreceptive to
fire spread, however. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will bring
precipitation across that region while an arctic air mass east of
the Divide will continue to suppress fire weather concerns.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Feb 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will dig southeastward from the
Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies on D2/Sunday. As this
system approaches the Rockies, lee troughing in the southern High
Plains will occur towards the end of the period. The strengthening of
the surface pressure gradient will generally be mistimed with peak
afternoon heating, though some overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds
with RH values of 10-20% may lead to briefly elevated conditions
in a few locations. Elsewhere, cold temperatures and precipitation
will continue to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The giraffe you thought you offended last week is willing to be nuzzled today.
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