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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.09.20 18:12z 87 Lines 4784 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25587_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200914/1800Z 25587@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742
AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST NEAR TROPICAL STORM SALLY...
...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Sally may produce a tornado or two
in the immediate Gulf Coast area of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama,
Mississippi and perhaps extreme southeastern Louisiana.
...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly anticyclonic flow
will prevail over much of the western CONUS, as ridging extends
across the Great Basin, northern/central Rockies, central Plains,
Tennessee Valley, and SC. The main feature of interest for this
period will be T.S. Sally, well-removed from the prevailing
west-northwest midlatitude flow belt over the Upper Midwest, Great
Lakes and Northeast.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from southern NJ
across northern VA, northwestern TN, central AR, west-central TX
and southern NM. This front should weaken gradually as it moves
southward slowly through parts of the southern Appalachians and TN
Valley region, and parts of western/central TX.
...Gulf Coast -- T.S. Sally... What is now T.S. Sally, centered
south of the western Florida Panhandle in the open Gulf, is
forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward toward
the extreme southeastern LA/southern MS coastal areas, in which
is it expected by NHC to decelerate as a hurricane prior to final
landfall. As the circulation moves slowly and obliquely closer to
the outlook area, more-favorable discrete and embedded-supercell
convective modes may begin to move off the Gulf, especially in the
latter half of the period (after about 00Z). Hodographs should
enlarge gradually through that time frame, with the most favorable
juxtaposition of low-level shear and at least marginal buoyancy
(in an onshore-advected maritime/tropical air mass) over the eastern
semicircle. The northern rim of that sector should spread westward
across the outlook area as Sally's center approaches landfall.
Northward penetration of favorable convection will be tempered by
1) The relatively compact character of the system and associated
favorable wind fields, and 2) lack of more inland instability
related to stabilizing effects of outer-circulation precip.
The LA part of the outlook is most uncertain and may need to be
shifted further east later. As noted in NHC discussions, a lot
of spread remains in landfall-location guidance for this soon in
advance. A more-rightward position (say, over MS instead of LA)
would remove LA from even marginal unconditional tornado potential,
due to the deep-shear influence and related eastward skew to both 1)
the most-buoyant air mass relative to center where low-level shear is
favorable, and 2) the distribution of suitable convective structure.
Please see the NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity
forecasts and tropical watch/warning information on Sally.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/14/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION... In the D4/Thu through D5/Fri timeframe, the
remaining circulation of Tropical Cyclone Sally will migrate eastward
across portions of Georgia and South Carolina and may pose a risk for
a tornado or two and/or damaging convective wind. The track/timing
of the system is uncertain, however, and the low magnitude of the
threat precludes introduction of probabilities at this time.
Beyond that timeframe, an anticyclone will spread from the Great
Lakes eastward across the Northeast, which should maintain a nearly
stationary front along the Gulf Coast vicinity through most of
the forecast period. Only modest moisture return will occur in
the Plains ahead of the next trough that will migrate across the
northern Plains late in the forecast period. Thunderstorms are
expected, although confidence in a widespread severe threat is too
low to introduce any probabilities at this time.
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El espanol siempre sabe todo. Y si de algo no sabe nada, dice: 'De esto
hablaremos mas adelante'.
-- Jose Luis Aranguren.
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