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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.09.20 20:31z 115 Lines 5705 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25695_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 09
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200915/2000Z 25695@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 489 TORNADO AL FL CW 151140Z - 152300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwestern Alabama Florida
Panhandle Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 640 AM until 600
PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible
SUMMARY...The tornado threat with Hurricane Sally will increase
in immediate coastal areas through the remainder of the morning.
The threat then should shift gradually northward/inland this
afternoon, as Sally's center very slowly approaches landfall,
based on the National Hurricane Center forecast.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Mobile AL to 45
miles east of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 12045.
...Edwards
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GLEASON..09/15/20
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 489
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-097-151540-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN MOBILE
FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-131-133-151540-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-670-675-750-752-770-772-
151540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750
AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes may occur across portions of southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through tonight, in association
with Hurricane Sally.
...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, ridging will continue to prevail
over most of the western CONUS, with the height axis extending
from parts of NV and UT to BC. Downstream, initially fairly flat,
west-northwest flow aloft gradually will assume broadly cyclonic
curvature as a series of shortwaves traverses the northern stream,
and a major cyclone digs southeastward from Nunavut to western
Hudson Bay.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a diffuse cold frontal zone
from the lower Savannah River Valley area across northwestern GA
and northern/central AL, to north-central portions of LA, through a
frontal wave in north-central TX, southwestward to the Rio Grande
Valley between DRT-LRD. The front is expected to decelerate and
gradually lose definition along most of that length through the
period. Hurricane Sally (below) will be the most crucial feature
for this forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast -- Hurricane Sally... The tornado threat
will very slowly increase with time and northward extent today
and tonight. See SPC tornado watch 489 and related mesoscale
discussions for near-term details.
Streamlines and implied near-surface trajectories have been
persistently offshore and traveling through the northern part of
Sally's outer precip swath, substantially limiting destabilization
inland. This condition will continue, but also, erode from the south
slowly, as the offshore component gradually weakens and surface
winds become coast-parallel, then slightly onshore. Despite that
veering, low-level vector shear and hodograph size should strengthen,
especially in the watch area, as the more-intense winds above
the surface begin to spread overland. Gradual destabilization
along the immediate coast is expected through the day, ahead of
a long-lasting and prominent inner band of convection that has
hosted several persistent cells if varying magnitudes of horizontal
cyclonic shear. This regime will shift inland largely in step with
the very slow northward component of Sally's translation vector,
but also may expand somewhat late in the period (late tonight)
near or after landfall.
Please refer to the latest NHC advisories for the latest track/
intensity forecasts and tropical watch/warning information regarding
Sally.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/15/2020
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La mejor estructura no garantizara los resultados ni el rendimiento.
Pero la estructura equivocada es una garantia de fracaso.
-- Peter Drucker.
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