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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.02.19 07:03z 99 Lines 5182 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18388_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190210/0700Z 18388@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137
PM CST Sat Feb 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will increase from portions
of central Texas into southwest Arkansas Sunday afternoon/night. A
few storms may also develop over portions of the Great Basin.
...TX to AR...
Weak large-scale height falls will develop across the southern Plains
Sunday as broad southwesterly flow strengthens from northern Mexico
across TX into the OH Valley. Several weak disturbances are expected
to translate along this corridor but the primary forcing mechanism
for deep convection is expected to be warm advection associated with
LLJ. LLJ should strengthen across central TX early Sunday then veer
towards AR during the latter half of the period. Early-day coastal
boundary is expected to gradually advance inland during the day
and resultant corridor of ascent should focus from central TX into
AR. Elevated convection is expected along this zone with thunder
threat increasing from mid afternoon into the overnight hours.
...Great Basin...
High-level diffluence is expected to increase markedly across the
Great Basin ahead of approaching trough. Notable front will advance
across the Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin by 18z...then into
western UT/southern NV by 11/00z. Steep lapse rates and frontal
ascent should be adequate for weak convection across this region.
Strongest updrafts may produce a few lightning strikes.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/10/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232
AM CST Sun Feb 10 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Monday from
parts of east Texas into northern and central Mississippi.
...East Texas/Northern Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, North and
Central Mississippi... An upper-level trough will move quickly
eastward into the High Plains on Monday as southwest mid-level flow
remains over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a
low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle on Monday. Moisture
advection will take place ahead of the low, increasing surface
dewpoints into the 60s F across much of east Texas, Louisiana and
southeastern Arkansas. Although a few thunderstorms will be possible
on the western edge of the moist sector during the day on Monday,
the majority of convection should develop after sundown as low-level
convergence increases along a pre-frontal trough. In response,
a convective line may develop from southeast Texas extending north
northeastward into northwest Louisiana. The ECMWF and GFS solutions
have this scenario but the NAM does not. The NAM solution has very
little instability and shows considerably less convective coverage.
This solution introduces uncertainty. If the line can develop,
then the strong wind field will make wind damage possible. A brief
tornado could also occur with rotating cells embedded in the line.
For this forecast, will keep the threat at marginal due to the
weak instability that is forecast and significant spread among
model solutions.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 02/10/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sun Feb 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will progress from northern
California into the Four Corners today. Modest lee troughing will
occur in the southern High Plains as this system approaches and
induces dry, southwesterly downslope flow off the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in northeast New Mexico. However, with the strength of
the surface winds not increasing until later in the afternoon,
only a brief overlap of elevated fire weather conditions (15-20%
RH and 15-20 mph winds) is expected.
..Wendt.. 02/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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A father gave his teen-age daughter an untrained pedigreed pup for
her birthday. An hour later, when wandering through the house, he found her
looking at a puddle in the center of the kitchen. "My pup," she murmured
sadly, "runneth over."
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