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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.10.20 17:11z 58 Lines 2936 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26482_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201001/1700Z 26482@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202
AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across
northern portions of the southern Plains on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs
will likely be moving through the southwestern periphery of the
expansive upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS early
Saturday morning. The lead wave will be over the mid MS Valley and
is forecast to quickly lose amplitude as it moves eastward across
the OH Valley. The second shortwave will likely be over the central
Plains early Saturday and is expected to move southeastward across
the Lower MO Valley and into the TN Valley throughout the day.
Progression of these shortwaves will help push a cold front southward
through much of the southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Modest
low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of this cold front,
with mid 50s dewpoints reaching into northern portions of the
southern Plains. This moisture advection combined with boundary
layer mixing and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest
instability and the potential for thunderstorms along the front
across OK and adjacent portions of western AR and TX Red River
vicinity. This region will be on the edge of the stronger flow aloft,
resulting in moderate vertical shear supportive of a few stronger
storms. However, modest instability is currently expected to limit
overall severe thunderstorm coverage.
..Mosier.. 10/01/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION... Upper pattern is expected to trend towards a less
amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough configuration
early next week. Medium-range guidance has come into better
agreement and several shortwave troughs are expected to move within
the eastern upper trough. However, the general expectation is for
the better low-level moisture to remain displaced south of the
stronger forcing for ascent and stronger vertical shear.
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Toma consejo en el vino, pero decide despues con agua.
-- Benjamin Franklin. (1706-1790) Estadista y cientifico
estadounidense.
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