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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.10.20 17:26z 76 Lines 4228 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26859_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201004/1700Z 26859@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that an initially
strong, zonal mid/upper jet, emerging from the northern mid-latitude
Pacific, may undergo considerable amplification while progressing
inland across the U.S. Pacific coast next weekend. This may include
the evolution of a large and deep mid-level trough across the Great
Basin into the Great Plains, and significant surface cyclogenesis to
the lee of the Rockies by late next weekend. This may be preceded
by a developing tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, which may
eventually accelerate northward or northeastward, inland ahead of
the amplifying trough in the westerlies.
Spread among the various model output concerning these developments
at this extended range remains quite large. However, increasing
severe weather potential appears at least a possibility, perhaps
most notably by Sunday across parts of the Great Plains. Even then,
though, while the boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
probably will have seasonably high dew points, the extratropical
cyclogenesis may occur rather far inland of the Gulf coast (over
the central or northern Great Plains), and low-level moisture return
through the Great Plains may just be commencing.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... The upper ridge across the western CONUS will
weaken through the Day 2/Monday period, with a belt of stronger
northwesterly mid-level flow prevailing across the central/northern
Rockies into the Plains states. The mid-level impulse cresting the
ridge across the northern Rockies Day 1/Sunday is expected to amplify
Monday. Dry westerly winds will prevail Monday afternoon across
portions of the central Rockies into the central High Plains along
and behind a surface cold front, where wildfire-spread potential will
exist. More modest surface wind fields supporting wildfire spread
may also develop farther south across the southern Rockies/southern
High Plains by peak heating Monday afternoon.
...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Strong,
dry northwesterly surface flow behind the cold front, along with
downslope flow along the lee of the central Rockies, are expected to
contribute to sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH by afternoon. The
best chance for Critical conditions will be across southeast
Wyoming into east-central Colorado, western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Questions remain regarding the exact position/timing of the
cold front, and adjustments to the Elevated and Critical areas in
the Plains states may be needed in future outlooks.
...Portions of the southern Rockies/High Plains... A few guidance
members have been consistent in depicting downslope flow contributing
to 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH
across portions of northwestern into central New Mexico. Stronger
mid-level flow and associated upper support are expected to remain
north of the area, though dry fuels and lack of recent rainfall
will help to foster a lower-end Elevated event. As such, an Elevated
area has been introduced to account for this scenario.
..Squitieri.. 10/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Sepan que olvidar lo malo tambien es tener memoria.
-- Jose Hernandez. (1834-1886) Poeta argentino.
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