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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.10.20 16:16z 158 Lines 7260 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37370_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 9 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201009/1600Z 37370@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:58:01 +0000
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:58:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct9 10:58:01 UTC 2020.
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:57:05 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct9 10:58:01 UTC 2020.
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:57:04 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with marginally
severe thunderstorms also possible across parts of the Southeast.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A large-scale upper trough over western Canada and the northern
Rockies should further amplify on Sunday across parts of the
northern Plains while gradually acquiring a negative tilt by Sunday
night. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to sweep
east-southeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest through the period in tandem with the amplifying upper
trough. Limited low-level moisture return is expected ahead of this
advancing cold front, and a low-level inversion may inhibit
convective development along the front through much of the day.
Still, some potential for storms remains evident from parts of far
eastern ND/SD into MN and perhaps parts of IA late Sunday afternoon
and continuing into the evening. Strong deep-layer shear will be
present across this region, which may act to organize any storms
that can develop and subsequently grow upscale along the cold front.
Isolated severe wind gusts will probably be the main threat through
Sunday evening given a mainly linear mode expected, although some
large hail may also occur early in the convective life cycle given
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Storms should weaken
with eastward extent across the Upper Midwest late Sunday as they
outrun the modest forecast instability.
...Southeast...
The remnants of Delta are forecast to move northeastward across
parts of the TN Valley on Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level
south-southwesterly winds will remain across parts of the Southeast
as a surface warm front lifts slowly northward across parts of the
Carolinas. There appears to be enough veering/strengthening of winds
with height to support modestly organized storms across the warm
sector, with weak to locally moderate instability also forecast.
Isolated strong/gusty winds appear to be the main threat, although a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Gleason.. 10/09/2020
Read more
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 07:32:21 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains should move eastward
across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Monday. A surface cold
front is likewise expected to sweep eastward across these regions.
Strong deep-layer shear will accompany the upper trough, but modest
low-level moisture return ahead of the front should tend to limit
the amount of instability present across the warm sector. A marginal
severe threat may still develop Monday afternoon across portions of
the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the overall severe risk may be tempered
by the lack of greater instability.
The cold front is forecast to move off the East Coast on Day
5/Tuesday, with strong mid-level westerly winds confined mainly to
the northern/central CONUS thereafter. Low-level offshore flow
should be generally be maintained across the southern states, which
should greatly limit instability across a large majority of the
CONUS. Accordingly, organized severe thunderstorm potential from Day
5/Tuesday through the end of the forecast period appears low.
Read more
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 08:51:19 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to propagate across the
Northwest and into the Northern Rockies through the day Saturday.
The resulting lee troughing and increase in mid and upper-level
winds will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions over
much of the West and northern Rockies where hot and dry conditions
have fostered receptive fuels.
...northern Rockies...
A deepening lee low/trough from southern Canada southward into the
central High Plains will support increasing pressure gradient winds
by Saturday afternoon as the upper-level wave moves into the
northern CONUS. An attendant strengthening of mid-level flow will
help support frequent wind gusts up to 30-40 mph from the western
Dakotas into central MT. Antecedent hot and dry conditions across
the northern Rockies will be augmented by downslope warming and
drying. RH values falling into the teens in tandem with the
increasing winds will favor widespread elevated fire weather
conditions with critical conditions likely for central MT and
northeast WY where confidence is highest in sustained 20 mph winds
and critical RH values. Critical conditions may occur across
southern WY and western SD and NE, but confidence in RH reductions
below critical thresholds is too low for this outlook.
...Great Basin...
Increasing surface winds are expected across much of the Great Basin
in response to the deepening low/trough. ERC values near or above
the 90th percentile, coupled with increasing winds and low RH values
between 10-20%, will support widespread elevated, and perhaps
locally critical, fire weather conditions. There is some uncertainty
regarding the westward extent of the risk area into western NV where
RH values may struggle to fall below 20%. However, sustained winds
near 20-25 mph appear likely in the lee of the Sierra, and warrants
inclusion given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity (though
further refinements are likely in subsequent updates).
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
A modest deepening of a lee trough is forecast across the southern
High Plains by Saturday afternoon. While this region will be
displaced from the stronger flow aloft, westerly downslope winds
will likely increase to around 15-20 mph over a region with
unseasonably high ERC values. These factors coupled with RH values
in the teens suggest that elevated conditions are likely.
..Moore.. 10/09/2020
Read more
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 07:00:01 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
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