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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.10.20 17:30z 281 Lines 13108 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37509_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<XE1FH<LU3DVN<LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201011/1656Z 37509@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:34:01 +0000
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:34:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 11 08:34:01 UTC 2020.
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:33:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 11 08:34:01 UTC 2020.
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:33:05 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern/central Plains
into the Upper Midwest, with marginally severe thunderstorms also
possible across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
...Northern/Central Plains...
00z models are in general agreement regarding the progression of a
short-wave trough over the northwestern US. This feature is forecast
to advance into the High Plains, extending from the western Dakotas
into eastern CO by 12/00z, then shifting to near 97W longitude by
the end of the period. Low-level moisture is currently a bit scant
across the northern/central Plains where surface dew points are in
the 30s/40s. However, strengthening LLJ across this region should
allow moisture across KS to begin advancing north. Latest
indications are this modified air mass will likely be drawn north
across the mid-MO Valley into portions of southwestern MN prior to
frontal passage.
Latest guidance suggests a narrow corridor of strong boundary-layer
heating will extend across the central Plains into southwestern MN
by mid afternoon. While surface parcels may struggle to reach their
convective temperatures, frontal convergence should easily assist
parcels to their LFC, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the strongly forced high-latitude portions of the
boundary by 21z. Forecast soundings suggest adequate deep-layer
shear for potential supercells; however, strong forcing should
result in a squall line quickly. Greatest threat with this initial
activity will be hail/wind, evolving into more of a wind threat as
the squall line matures. Have extended severe probabilities
southwest along the front into portions of northern KS where
forecast soundings suggest inhibition will be very weak with MUCAPE
in excess of 2000 J/kg. Southern extent of large-scale forcing
should extend into this region which should be adequate for
scattered convection along the wind shift.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Remnants of TC Delta are quickly ejecting east-northeast across the
TN Valley/northern Gulf States. Substantial mid-level drying is
spreading across AL/GA early this morning and this drying should
progress downstream into the western Carolinas early in the period.
Overall, this system is gradually weakening with forecast soundings
across the southeastern US/Carolinas exhibiting substantially weaker
shear than the eastern Gulf States Saturday. Even so, adequate flow
and moistening profiles suggest there is some risk for organized
robust convection. The greatest risk is for locally damaging wind
gusts, or perhaps a few brief/weak tornadoes.
..Darrow/Moore.. 10/11/2020
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 05:48:33 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.
...Great Lakes/Midwest...
A negatively tilted upper trough will progress eastward Monday from
the mid/upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Strong
(50-60+ kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this upper
trough passage, and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should be
present. At the surface, a cold front will also sweep quickly
eastward across these regions through the day. A line of shallow
convection may be ongoing across parts of WI/IL Monday morning, with
little severe risk evident owing to minimal surface-based
instability.
Low-level moisture return ahead of the front is forecast to remain
rather limited through the day, especially with northward extent
across the Great Lakes. Farther south across IN, KY, and western OH,
low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints may spread northward into
these areas in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Regardless,
forecast soundings from various guidance suggest that a low-level
inversion will probably suppress vigorous convective development
across this region, even as mainly elevated instability modestly
increases through Monday afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool
with the approach of the upper trough. At this point, the potential
for strong/gusty winds to reach the surface with low-topped
convection along the front appears too limited to include low
probabilities for severe wind gusts.
...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina...
A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to advance
eastward from VA/NC off the East Coast by late Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of coastal VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection
regime, and this activity should move offshore through the day. The
potential for organized severe storms across this region still
appears low owing to weak instability and modest deep-layer shear.
..Gleason.. 10/11/2020
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 05:54:12 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough should move northeastward across parts of New
England on Tuesday. A surface low should also develop northeastward
along/near the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to occur
through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient MUCAPE
may be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly along/near
the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support an
organized severe risk across this region.
Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet should advance eastward
over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool
mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may
support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms
capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer
shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the
very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast
across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions
should generally prevail.
..Gleason.. 10/11/2020
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 07:26:33 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow across much of the
northern/central CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should transition to a
more amplified pattern as large-scale upper troughing develops over
the central CONUS. Further amplification of this upper trough
appears likely across the eastern CONUS from Day 5/Thursday through
the upcoming weekend. Minimal low-level moisture return ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front across the central/eastern states
should keep organized severe thunderstorm potential low through at
least mid week. Model differences regarding the evolution of the
upper trough increase over the eastern states from Day 6/Friday
onward. Still, if a slower, more amplified upper trough were to
develop as some guidance suggests, then an organized severe risk
could materialize across some portion of the eastern states around
Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. However, predictability remains
far too low to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:33:20 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave moving into the north-central CONUS will enhance
zonal flow over the central Rockies through the day today. In
response, strong surface pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies
will drive increasing winds over the central and southern High
Plains. Given dry fuels over this region, elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected.
...Southern High Plains...
Confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is highest
across eastern NM and into the TX Panhandle. This will largely be
driven by strong westerly downslope winds that will develop by late
afternoon in response to the deepening low/trough across southeast
CO/southwest KS. Sustained winds at 20-25 mph appear likely, and
deep boundary-layer mixing should support frequent wind gusts up to
30-35 mph by late afternoon. The combination of downslope
warming/drying and deep mixing will foster RH reductions into the
low teens, and perhaps single digits for some locations. Further to
the south and west, brief critical conditions are possible, but
sustained elevated wind speeds appear more likely - largely due to
displacement from the stronger mid-level flow.
...Central High Plains...
Elevated conditions appear likely from southwest NE into southeast
CO/southwest KS. A southward-surging cold will bring shifting winds
to the north and improving RH conditions to southwest NE/northeast
CO through the day. This introduces some uncertainty into the
duration of elevated conditions north of the I-70 corridor. Further
south, elevated conditions should persist for much of the day, and
localized critical conditions are possible for southeast CO,
especially closer to higher terrain where wind gusts up to 30-40 mph
will be possible.
...Northern High Plains...
Periodic elevated conditions are possible further north into
southeast MT/northeast WY behind the cold front this afternoon.
Cooler air filtering into the region will limit RH reductions for
most of the region and scattered light precipitation may limit fuel
readiness. Confidence remains too low for an elevated delineation,
but a few locations may see RH values fall below 20% concurrent with
breezy winds up to 20 mph later today.
..Moore.. 10/11/2020
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 05:52:38 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent zonal flow over the central Rockies will favor modest
deepening of a lee trough through the day. This feature, juxtaposed
next to a surface high across the southern Plains, will drive
increasing pressure gradient winds across the central High Plains
and introduce some fire weather concerns.
...Central High Plains...
Southwesterly surface winds are expected to increase into the upper
teens by late afternoon Monday from northeast NM into western NE.
Although post-frontal temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Sunday, low-level trajectories off of the higher terrain of southern
CO and NM will favor a drying trend with afternoon RH values falling
into the 15-20% range. Given limited precipitation with Sunday's
frontal passage, fuels should remain receptive across the region and
support elevated fire weather conditions. Critical conditions are
possible across southeast WY and into the southern NE Panhandle
where stronger mid-level flow may support wind gusts into the 30-40
mph range, though confidence in the spatial coverage of these winds
remains too low for a critical delineation. Additionally, there is
some uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of the elevated area
into eastern NE due to low confidence in RH reductions and the
potential for showers/storms on Sunday to negate fuel readiness in
this region.
...Southern California...
Modest high pressure over the interior West will drive weak offshore
flow over southern CA on Monday. RH values falling into the teens
and low 20s may coincide with terrain-enhanced winds near 15 mph.
Overall, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to remain
fairly localized, but may impact ongoing fires across the region.
..Moore.. 10/11/2020
Read more
Sun, 11 Oct 2020 06:42:29 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
What use is magic if it can't save a unicorn?
-- Peter S. Beagle, "The Last Unicorn"
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