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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.02.19 06:51z 125 Lines 6784 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18497_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190212/0700Z 18497@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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MD 0096 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND CHICAGOLAND AREA
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Illinois and Chicagoland
Area
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 120121Z - 120715Z
SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet will be possible through
the evening and into the early morning hours (4-5 AM CST). Highest
freezing rain rates are expected during the 12-2 AM time frame.
DISCUSSION...As a broad area of precipitation continues to spread
over the Upper-Midwest, a few surface observation stations across the
Chicagoland and vicinity are reporting freezing rain and sleet/ice
pellets. Dual-polarization KLOT radar imagery shows a warm layer
aloft as far north as a line from Rochelle to Evanston. As a
mid-level shortwave trough continues to approach from the west,
the 850 mb low should deepen as it moves across northern Illinois. A
fairly long duration freezing rain/sleet event is expected through
about 4-5 AM CST. While freezing rain rates are not anticipated
to be overly high given the near freezing surface temperatures in
the surface to 850 mb layer, the duration of the event may lead to
modest ice accretion in some locations. The highest freezing rain
rates are anticipated to occur during the 12-2 AM CST period when
850 mb warm advection is maximized across the region.
..Wendt.. 02/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...
LAT...LON 41958938 42208850 42118780 41748762 41548770 41348812
41128899 41178950 41488978 41818960 41958938
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057
PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO FAR WESTERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... A few damaging wind gusts are possible from eastern
Mississippi across Alabama and western Georgia today.
...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen across the Great Lakes with
an upper trough extending southward across the central Gulf Coast
states during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it
pivots northeast from IL across southwest Ontario with a cold front
extending south and progressing east across the Southeast. Weak
instability ahead of the cold front may yield a few strong storms
from MS into western GA, as wind profiles will be strong prior to
frontal passage. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will quickly
spread across the East, shunting instability and moisture offshore.
...Southeastern States... A line of showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning from MS into AL along a cold
front. Lift will be strongest early in the day prior to the surface
low lifting farther away from the region. Sufficient low-level
moisture with 60s F dewpoints will support weak destabilization,
but little to no heating is expected. CAMS suggest a fine line of
forced convection along the advancing wind shift, which will likely
surge ahead of the main cooling aloft. Surface based instability will
generally be weak owing to the marginally unstable boundary layer,
and this may mitigate low-level rotation potential. A few damaging
wind gusts are possible owing to the strength of the low-level wind
fields, but widespread severe is unlikely.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/12/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152
PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. No severe weather is expected.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward
across the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as a cold front advances
southward across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints south
of the front in south Florida will be in the 60s F. This combined
with large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
will be enough for isolated thunderstorm development during the
day. Instability is forecast to be too weak across south Florida
for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, thunderstorm
development is not expected Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 02/12/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over much of the
Intermountain West today. A relatively broad area of mid-level flow
will be present around the periphery of the ridge. A modest/moderate
zonal component of this flow will exist across the central Rockies
and will induce lee troughing that should stretch as far south
as the Texas Panhandle. A strong surface cyclone in the eastern
Great Lakes region will bring a vast area of precipitation with
its associated frontal system while another upper-level trough will
bring precipitation to the West Coast.
...Southern High Plains... A few places in northeastern New
Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle may experience elevated
fire weather conditions during the afternoon as the lee trough
increases the surface pressure gradient. Even with relatively
cool post-frontal air in place, temperatures should reach to near
60F with afternoon RH of 10-20%. Winds are the biggest question,
but general consensus amongst guidance is that 15-20 mph winds will
occur for at least 3 hours within most of the highlighted area.
..Wendt.. 02/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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A girl and a boy bump into each other -- surely an accident. A girl and a
boy bump and her handkerchief drops -- surely another accident. But when a
girl gives a boy a dead squid -- *____that ___had __to ____mean
_________something*.
-- S. Morganstern, "The Silent Gondoliers"
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