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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.10.20 15:30z 125 Lines 4996 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37566_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N7HPX<N3DWB<LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201012/1500Z 37566@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 10:39:01 +0000
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 10:39:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 12 10:39:01 UTC 2020.
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 10:38:16 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 12 10:39:01 UTC 2020.
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 10:38:15 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Wednesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced, generally westerly flow across the northern half of the
CONUS should transition to an amplifying large-scale upper trough
across the central states on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure
initially over the northern Plains should develop east-northeastward
across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and southern Ontario through
the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward
across much of the Plains and upper/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level
moisture return may occur across parts of the southern Plains and
Southeast ahead of the front. However, capping across the southern
Plains will likely prohibit convective development, while negligible
ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit thunderstorm
potential across the Southeast. Thunderstorms also appear unlikely
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes in advance of the developing
upper trough, as instability is forecast to be very meager.
..Gleason.. 10/12/2020
Read more
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 07:17:19 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that a large-scale
upper trough will amplify as it moves across the eastern CONUS from
Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. A related surface cold front
should also advance across the eastern states in this time frame.
Modest destabilization ahead of the front may occur Friday across
parts of the Carolinas and vicinity. Depending on the timing of the
upper trough and cold front, an isolated/marginal severe threat
could develop across this area given adequate forecast shear. But,
predictability still remains low. In the wake of the cold front
moving off the East Coast, severe potential appears low across the
CONUS on Day 6/Saturday. The evolution of another large-scale upper
trough over the central CONUS and Midwest/Great Lakes region appears
highly uncertain late this upcoming weekend into early next week.
Some low-level moisture return may occur ahead of this feature, but
far too much uncertainty in the synoptic-scale upper pattern
currently exists to confidently assess organized severe thunderstorm
potential at this extended time frame.
Read more
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 07:58:14 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad surface high pressure over the central and southwestern CONUS
will largely limit the potential for widespread strong winds on
Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions will help RH values fall into the
teens and low twenties, but overall weak flow will most likely favor
localized elevated fire weather conditions for locations that
typically see terrain-enhanced winds - especially over the Great
Basin and West Coast.
...Southeast Wyoming into Colorado...
One area that may see a higher chance for elevated fire weather
conditions is southeast WY into northern/northeast CO where stronger
flow over the Rockies will favor modest deepening of a lee trough.
This could lead to winds increasing to 15-20 mph (possibly stronger
in the higher terrain of southeast WY/northern CO) by late
afternoon. While most guidance shows reasonable agreement in these
wind magnitudes there is still some uncertainty regarding RH
reductions and the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions.
While localized elevated conditions appear likely for Tuesday
afternoon, confidence is too low to delineate a broader area at this
time.
..Moore.. 10/12/2020
Read more
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 06:49:33 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
Pascal Users:
To show respect for the 313th anniversary (tomorrow) of the
death of Blaise Pascal, your programs will be run at half speed.
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