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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.10.20 14:17z 230 Lines 10301 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37607_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201013/1400Z 37607@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:10:01 +0000
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:10:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 13 08:10:01 UTC 2020.
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:09:32 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 13 08:10:01 UTC 2020.
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:09:41 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will quickly move through
high momentum flow located over the northern half of the Lower 48.
In the low levels, a cold front initially over the Carolinas/central
Gulf Coast will push southeastward during the day and move into the
Gulf Stream waters east of the Carolinas.Dry/stable low levels
will lead to quiescent conditions across much of the contiguous U.S.
..Smith/Moore.. 10/13/2020
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:30:32 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Wednesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced, generally westerly flow across the northern half of the
CONUS should transition to an amplifying large-scale upper trough
across the central states on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure
initially over the northern Plains should develop east-northeastward
across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and southern Ontario through
the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward
across much of the Plains and upper/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level
moisture return may occur across parts of the southern Plains and
Southeast ahead of the front. However, capping across the southern
Plains will likely prohibit convective development, while negligible
ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit thunderstorm
potential across the Southeast. Thunderstorms also appear unlikely
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes in advance of the developing
upper trough, as instability is forecast to be very meager.
..Gleason.. 10/13/2020
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:37:59 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should amplify further on Thursday as it
moves slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS. A surface
low initially in the vicinity of southern Ontario should continue
developing to the northeast into Quebec, with a trailing cold front
moving east-southeastward over much of the central/eastern states.
Mainly elevated convection appears possible on an isolated basis
along/ahead of the front across parts of TX/AR/LA through Thursday
night, although instability and deep-layer shear should remain weak
across these areas. Other isolated storms may occur late Thursday
night across parts of GA and SC, where low-level moisture will
modestly increase as ascent associated with the approaching upper
trough overspreads this region. A few storms may also develop across
parts of south FL and the Keys along sea breeze boundaries as
low-level moisture increases through the period.
..Gleason.. 10/13/2020
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 07:26:01 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A marginal/isolated severe threat may develop across parts of the
Carolinas on Day 4/Friday ahead of an eastward-moving upper trough
and surface cold front. However, the forecast combination of
instability and shear do not appear sufficient to include a 15%
severe area at this time. The cold front will clear nearly the
entire East Coast on Day 5/Saturday as the upper trough pivots
northeastward across the western Atlantic and Canadian Maritimes,
with little severe potential evident across the CONUS. The evolution
of another upper trough over the central CONUS late this upcoming
weekend into early next week still remains uncertain. Some
deterministic guidance shows a more amplified solution, which would
encourage the development of a stronger and more poleward surface
low. Depending on the timing/placement of the upper trough and the
quality/northward extent of substantial low-level moisture return,
some severe risk may develop from late Day 6/Sunday through the end
of the period across parts of the southern Plains into the mid/lower
MS Valley as a cold front moves southeastward across these regions.
Regardless, predictability is too low to delineate any severe areas
at this extended time frame.
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:09:52 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow over the Rockies will lead to another day of windy
conditions within the higher terrain and high Plains of Colorado and
southeast Wyoming. Upper-level ridging will continue to build across
the West Coast and favor above normal temperatures and a drying
trend that is forecast to last well into the work week.
...Colorado and southeast Wyoming...
Persistent zonal flow over the northern to central Rockies will
continue to drive weak lee troughing and westerly downslope winds
across CO and into southeast WY. Downslope warming and drying,
coupled with partly cloudy to most clear skies, will drive RH
reductions into the low 20s and teens for many locations. Sustained
winds will most likely remain in the 15-20 mph range, but deep
boundary-layer mixing will likely aid in downward transfer of 20-40
mph winds within the 850-700 mb layer - especially across southeast
WY where wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Periods of critical
conditions are certainly possible where terrain influences can
strengthen low-level flow, but confidence in the coverage and
duration of these conditions is somewhat low.
...Southern California...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected during the late
evening and overnight hours as offshore flow increases to near 20
mph with locally higher gusts possible in the higher terrain.
Warming temperatures and falling dewpoint values through the day
will contribute to drying fuels and poor overnight RH recoveries (RH
values in the teens and low 20s).
..Moore.. 10/13/2020
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:22:54 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
A surface low is expected to deepen as it translates from the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon under a
strengthening upper-level trough. Increasing pressure gradient winds
along the trough axis and behind a dry cold front will increase the
fire weather potential from the central Plains into the southern
High Plains and eastern Four Corners region. Hot and dry conditions
will persist across the West Coast, and a strengthening meridional
pressure gradient will foster an increase in fire weather concerns.
...Great Plains into the Four Corners...
Widespread sustained winds between 15-20 mph appear likely from the
eastern Four Corners region into the Great Plains Wednesday
afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing coupled with strong mid-level
flow over the central CONUS will support wind gusts into the 30-40
mph range ahead of a southward-surging cold front, while strong
low-level cold advection should favor strong post-frontal winds.
Despite confidence in the wind forecast, RH values will likely range
from the low teens across eastern NM/west TX into the mid to upper
20s across portions of the Plains. The potential for RH recovery
behind the cold front also introduces uncertainty in the RH
forecast. Confidence in maintaining critical wind and RH thresholds
is highest across eastern NM and into the Texas Panhandle where
downslope warming/drying will aid in RH reductions, but transient
critical conditions may extend into northern NM/southern CO.
...Northern California...
Strengthening surface high pressure over northern CA and into the
western Great Basin juxtaposed north of lower pressure across
southern CA will increase the pressure gradient from north to south
over California. Down-valley winds are expected to increase to
around 20 mph (with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible) through the
Sacramento Valley Wednesday afternoon. Antecedent hot and dry
conditions will help cure fuels across the region as RH values fall
into the low teens. As such, critical fire weather conditions appear
likely within the Sacramento Valley with peripheral elevated
conditions.
...Southern California...
An increase in nocturnal winds and elevated fire weather conditions
are expected once again Wednesday night due to the aforementioned
pressure gradient over California. Wind speeds into the 15-20 mph
range appear reasonable within the higher terrain with locally
higher gusts possible. Fuels should remain receptive due to the
ongoing warming and drying trend with modest overnight RH
recoveries.
..Moore.. 10/13/2020
Read more
Tue, 13 Oct 2020 07:00:49 +0000
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