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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.10.20 15:07z 287 Lines 13007 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37671_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<YT7MPB<GB7CIP<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 201015/1500Z 37671@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:56:01 +0000
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:56:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 15 08:56:01 UTC 2020.
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:55:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 15 08:56:01 UTC 2020.
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:55:05 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
United States on Thursday.
...Discussion...
Large-scale heights are expected to fall across the mid-MS/OH Valley
region as upper troughing progresses into this region during the
latter half of the period. Another reinforcing continental air mass
will overspread much of the CONUS as a cold front settles southeast
through the period. This will effectively shunt higher-PW air mass
into the low latitudes, primarily across the coastal Plain of TX and
over the southern Gulf basin/south FL.
As much of the country gradually dries/stabilizes, deep convection
will become less likely. A few areas where isolated thunderstorms
may develop are, 1) TX-LA region, 2) Southeast, and 3) northern
Plains.
TX/LA -- Surface front will surge south across TX during the day as
the primary short-wave trough digs toward the OH Valley. Although
low-level convergence will prove minimal along this boundary,
surface heating across deep south TX suggests parcels will be most
buoyant across this region. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along/post frontal as the wind shift moves into this region.
Southeast -- surface anticyclone will shift off the Atlantic coast
during the day which will allow more favorable low-level
trajectories and convergence to focus from the FL Peninsula into the
Carolinas. While forecast lapse rates are poor, models suggest
scattered convection will evolve along this favorable zone of
low-level convergence.
Northern Plains -- steep low-level lapse rates will develop across
the northern Plains later today as strong surface heating north of
the primary jet enhances instability. While moisture is quite low
across this region, forecast soundings suggest scattered weak
convection is possible. The strongest updrafts may produce a few
lightning flashes.
..Darrow/Moore.. 10/15/2020
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 05:23:21 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should continue to evolve eastward across
the central/eastern states on Friday. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move southeastward across the Carolinas, GA, and
northern FL through the day. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should
be in place ahead of the front over parts of central and eastern
NC/SC, and modest surface heating may occur through Friday
afternoon. Mid-level southwesterly flow is also expected to
gradually strengthen across this region through the day. Even so,
mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very poor, which will
likely temper both instability and updraft strength. At this point,
the potential for thunderstorms to produce strong/gusty winds across
eastern NC/SC appears too low to include any severe probabilities.
Farther south, convection should develop ahead of the front along
sea breeze boundaries, primarily across the southern FL Peninsula.
Weak shear across this region should limit an organized severe
threat.
Farther north, elevated storms may occur on an isolated basis across
parts of southern New England in a low-level warm advection regime.
Other isolated storms appear possible across parts of south/coastal
TX along/near a front, and beneath the upper-level trough over parts
of the Great Lakes and MI where mid-level temperatures will be very
cold.
..Gleason.. 10/15/2020
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 05:56:21 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough should move northeastward across New
England on Saturday. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of this
feature may support a couple elevated storms across parts of the
immediate New England coast through the early afternoon, but
instability is expected to remain rather weak.
Farther south, convection may develop along sea breeze boundaries
across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. A decelerating
cold front across this region will likely serve as the northern
delimiter of thunderstorm potential. Weak deep-layer shear should
preclude an organized severe risk.
Low-level moisture is forecast to increase Saturday night across the
southern Plains and perhaps lower MS Valley as another shortwave
trough embedded within embedded within west-northwesterly mid-level
flow advances eastward from the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, elevated thunderstorm potential
appears highly uncertain, so have not included a general
thunderstorm area at this time.
..Gleason.. 10/15/2020
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 07:26:06 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies is forecast
to move from the north-central states into the Northeast and Canada
on Day 4/Sunday. Although low-level moisture return may occur to the
south of this feature across the southern Plains vicinity, the
potential for organized severe storms appears low. Medium-range
guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the
evolution of the mid/upper-level jet across the northern/central
CONUS in the early to middle portion of next week. Still,
differences remain in both the northward extent and quality of the
low-level moisture return across the central CONUS. Some guidance
suggests potential for isolated severe storms across parts of the
southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and perhaps the
Midwest from Day 5/Monday into at least the middle of next week.
However, too much uncertainty exists regarding this severe potential
to include any probabilities at this time.
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:55:22 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
A cold front will continue to move southward into the southern US
today, ushering in a cooler, but dry, airmass to the Plains. Breezy
post-frontal winds will maintain some fire concerns where RH values
can fall sufficiently low. To the West, hot and dry weather
continues. Surface high pressure over the northern Great Basin will
help augment gradients winds over a broad area and drive fire
weather concerns.
...Northern California...
Hot and dry conditions have been ongoing across much of the West
over the past several days, allowing fuels to cure and daily RH
values to fall well into the low teens. Additionally, surface high
pressure continues to build across the northern Great Basin, which
is favoring north/northeasterly winds across much of CA. Across
northern CA, offshore winds and northerly winds at 15-20 mph through
the Sacramento Valley appear likely again today. While low-level
wind profiles do not appear as favorable for efficient mixing of
stronger winds aloft, occasional wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will be
possible - especially within higher terrain. While elevated
conditions appear most prevalent, localized/periodic critical
conditions will be possible.
...Southern California...
A moderate Santa Ana wind event continues to appear likely for the
Ventura and Los Angeles county mountains beginning late
tonight/early Friday morning as north/northeasterly winds increase
to around 20-30 mph within the higher terrain. Poor overnight RH
recoveries and cured fuels will support critical fire weather
conditions with elevated conditions extending southward (where
slightly weaker winds at 15-25 mph are more likely).
...The Plains into the Midwest...
Dry, post-frontal air continues to spread into the Plains and
adjacent areas of the Midwest. Despite the cooler temperatures, RH
values should fall into the 20-25% range for several locations by
early afternoon. Gradient winds at 15-20 mph (with gusts up to 25-30
mph) will be likely during the morning and early afternoon hours
before gradually weakening by late afternoon as the pressure
gradient weakens over the region. Elevated fire weather conditions
were maintained or introduced to portions of northwest TX, central
IA to IL, and western NE where confidence is highest in at least a
few hours of overlap of elevated winds and sufficiently low RH.
...The Great Basin...
Localized elevated, to potentially critical, fire weather conditions
are possible across the Great Basin where pressure gradient winds
can be augmented by local terrain influences. RH values across this
region will generally remain in the low to mid teens, and fuels
remain dry after several days of hot/dry conditions with little to
no rainfall. However, areas of elevated to critical conditions are
expected to remain fairly localized or occur over regions with
sparse fuels, which precludes additional risk areas for this
outlook.
..Moore.. 10/15/2020
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 05:44:18 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
A weak upper-level disturbance is forecast to move into the
northwest US through the day on Friday. As this occurs, surface
pressure falls across MT and along the lee of the Rockies will help
weaken a Great Basin surface high and the pressure gradient in place
across CA.
...Southern California...
A Santa Ana wind event is expected to be ongoing during the early
morning hours on Friday. Sustained winds at 20-30 mph during the
early morning will gradually weaken through the day as the overall
pressure gradient weakens in tandem with the Great Basin surface
high to the northern. Poor overnight RH recoveries are expected
through at least Friday morning and fuels will remain dry through
the period. Critical conditions remain most likely for the mountains
of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but elevated conditions may
extend further south to the international border.
...Northern California...
Similar to southern CA, north to northeasterly pressure gradient
winds at 15-20 mph are expected during the morning hours through the
Sacramento Valley and peripheral higher terrain. Winds will begin to
abate during the afternoon hours with the weakening of the regional
pressure gradient. However, there should be a few hours when
sufficiently low RH and elevated wind speeds overlap to support
elevated fire weather conditions.
...Southern to southeast Wyoming...
Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper-level
shortwave trough, coupled with 50-60 mph zonal flow aloft over the
northern Rockies, will allow for modest to strong lee troughing
across eastern MT and eastern WY. Westerly downslope winds should
strengthen in response by the afternoon hours across southern to
southeast WY. While confidence is fairly high in sustained winds
near 20 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph, there is still considerable
spread in RH reductions. RH values as low as 15-20% are possible,
but may be as high as 30-35%. Regardless, the strong winds coupled
with dry fuels over the region will support a heightened fire
weather concern.
..Moore.. 10/15/2020
Read more
Thu, 15 Oct 2020 06:59:16 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
100 buckets of bits on the bus
100 buckets of bits
Take one down, short it to ground
FF buckets of bits on the bus
FF buckets of bits on the bus
FF buckets of bits
Take one down, short it to ground
FE buckets of bits on the bus
ad infinitum...
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