| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 17.10.20 17:16z 105 Lines 4285 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37762_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201017/1700Z 37762@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:06:01 +0000
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:06:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 17 13:06:01 UTC 2020.
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:05:34 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 17 13:06:01 UTC 2020.
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:05:18 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Discussion...
While severe thunderstorms are not expected, thunderstorms will be
possible today/tonight in two regional areas as large-scale
troughing generally prevails over the CONUS through tonight. A
relatively moist air mass will linger across the southern Florida
Peninsula today. Moist profiles and poor lapse rates are suggestive
of mostly weak convection with occasional lightning. Elsewhere, some
moistening will occur across the Ozarks/Mid-South tonight with aid
of an increasing low-level jet, with isolated/widely scattered
convection expected to develop across the region late tonight/early
Sunday. Instability is expected to be too weak for any meaningful
risk of elevated severe storms.
..Guyer.. 10/17/2020
Read more
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:05:40 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in good agreement on Tuesday, moving an
upper-level trough across the central United States. A surface low
is forecast to develop in the southern Plains as moisture return
takes place across the south-central states. Thunderstorm
development will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening along the
northern edge of the moist sector from the central Plains into the
mid Mississippi Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may
develop at that time, the models keep instability relatively weak
that far north suggesting the potential could remain marginal.
The moist airmass is forecast to continue advecting northward on
Wednesday with an east-to-west gradient of moisture setting up from
the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. This will be the
favored corridor for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Although deep-layer shear will be strong along this
corridor, instability is forecast to remain weak suggesting any
severe threat would again be marginal.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
Model solutions diverge on Thursday with some advecting the moist
airmass into the Upper Midwest with others keeping the moist sector
further south. As an upper-level trough moves into the central and
northern Plains on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be
possible along the northern edge of the moist sector once again. A
large variance in the amount of forecast instability among the
solutions makes uncertainty substantial on Thursday. If enough
instability can develop along the northern edge of the moist sector,
then an isolated severe threat would be possible.
On Friday and Saturday, the models move a cold front southeastward
from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front each day. However, the
models are currently forecasting weak instability ahead of the
front. This combined with substantial uncertainty makes
predictability quite low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
Read more
Sat, 17 Oct 2020 09:01:39 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
Sure he's sharp as a razor ... he's a two-dimensional pinhead!
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
