| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.10.20 14:16z 223 Lines 9619 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37801_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201018/1400Z 37801@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 09:01:01 +0000
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 09:01:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 18 09:01:01 UTC 2020.
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 09:00:29 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 18 09:01:01 UTC 2020.
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 09:00:26 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the country.
...Eastern OK to Southern IN...
Broad mid-level cyclonic flow is forecast to continue across the
northern two-thirds of the CONUS during the day1 period. Within this
flow regime, several notable short-wave troughs are expected to
translate across the northern tier of States before ejecting through
the Great Lakes. As a result, the primary corridor for meaningful
large-scale forcing for ascent should be noted ahead of these
features. The main area where convection seems likely will be across
the Ozark Plateau region into the lower OH Valley. While the
aforementioned storm track will be just north of this corridor,
veered LLJ from north TX into KY should aid moistening atop the
boundary layer within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance
continues to suggest buoyancy will increase from northeast
TX-AR-lower OH Valley, but a notable warm layer near 700mb, and
marginally steep mid-level lapse rates, should limit instability.
Forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE between 500-800 J/kg will be
common where elevated convection is expected to develop, primarily
during the latter half of the period. Local hail algorithms suggest
any hail that generates within this convection should be mostly
sub-severe. For these reasons have lowered the severe threat to less
than 5 percent.
...South FL...
Deep easterly flow along the southern periphery of an elongated
upper ridge will maintain moist profiles across south FL. Forecast
soundings exhibit high-PW air mass with poor lapse rates, but modest
flow for westward-moving convection. Latest satellite imagery/model
data suggest a weak mid-level disturbance will approach the FL
Atlantic coast later this morning. This feature should encourage
scattered convection that will track west toward the Gulf Coast
during the afternoon.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/18/2020
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 05:54:40 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong gusty winds will be
possible on Monday across parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi
Valley.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into western Kentucky and northern Arkansas.
Moisture advection will occur ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 60s F. Some
destabilization will occur ahead of the front by afternoon. This
combined with increasing low-level convergence should result in
thunderstorm development along the front. Forecast soundings from
north of Little Rock to Paducah during the mid to late afternoon
have MUCAPE from 800 to 1200 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from around 25 kt in northern Arkansas to near 40 kt in western
Kentucky. This environment could support an isolated severe threat
especially if more instability develops than is currently forecast.
Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor which should keep any severe
threat marginal. If a line of storms can develop along the front,
then a few strong wind gusts would be possible. Hail could also
occur with the stronger cells that develop in areas that destabilize
the most.
..Broyles.. 10/18/2020
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 06:03:14 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Rockies into the
Great Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture
advection is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into
the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible from
Tuesday afternoon through the overnight period along the northern
edge of the moist sector from eastern parts of the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes. Model forecasts keep instability weak along
this corridor suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Although
a capping inversion will be in place across much of the southern
Plains, an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop along
pre-existing convergent boundaries across Texas or Oklahoma in weak
vertical shear. A few thunderstorms may also develop in the
Southeast where vertical shear will also be weak. Due to the weak
vertical shear, a severe threat is not expected in the southern tier
of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 10/18/2020
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 07:14:58 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, the medium-range models are in reasonable agreement,
with an upper-level trough in the western U.S. and
west-southwesterly mid-level flow in the central and eastern U.S.
The models are forecasting an axis of low-level moisture to be
located in the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms may form along the northern edge of the moist sector
from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday
afternoon and evening but weak instability is expected to keep any
severe threat marginal.
On Thursday, the models move an upper-level trough into the Rockies
as southwest mid-level flow becomes established in the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward into the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening along the
front. However, weak instability should again keep any severe threat
marginal.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
The models continue in reasonable agreement from Friday to Saturday,
moving the cold front southeastward across the eastern third of the
nation. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front
from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and in the
Southeast on Saturday. Weak instability should again keep any severe
threat marginal. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to
move eastward across the southwestern states with southwest
mid-level flow located in the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible in the southern and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night
but the models have varying degrees of instability ahead of the
system. Due to significant model spread, predictability remains
quite low for Sunday.
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 09:00:52 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The potential for widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions across the CONUS is low. Broad cyclonic flow aloft will
reside across the northern half of the U.S through the forecast
period. At the surface, a cold front will continue to sweep eastward
across the center of the country ushering in a much cooler airmass.
Colder air and high pressure behind the front should reduce wind
speeds and increase humidity limiting fire weather potential. Any
fire weather conditions that do develop over New Mexico and the
southern Great Basin will likely be local in nature.
..Lyons.. 10/18/2020
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 06:35:29 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level heights will gradually rise over the US as broad cyclonic
troughing trends more zonal throughout Day2/Monday. At the surface,
a cool and stable airmass will reside over much of the central and
western portions of the country in the wake of a stalled cold front
across the Mississippi River Valley. The probability of widespread
elevated and critical fire weather conditions appears quite low due
to weak winds and cooler temperatures. Locally elevated and critical
fire weather conditions may develop across portions of California
where a thermal through will locally enhance winds with dry and warm
conditions.
..Lyons.. 10/18/2020
Read more
Sun, 18 Oct 2020 06:36:18 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
If only I could be respected without having to be respectable.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
