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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.10.20 14:07z 217 Lines 9227 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37837_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<YT7MPB<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201019/1401Z 37837@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 08:58:01 +0000
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 08:58:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 19 08:58:01 UTC 2020.
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 08:57:05 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 19 08:58:01 UTC 2020.
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 08:57:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...AR to Western KY...
Neutral-weak large-scale height rises are forecast across much of
the country east of the Rockies during the day1 period as broad
cyclonic flow persists across the northern two-thirds of the CONUS.
In the absence of appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent, a
veered LLJ should be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development along/north of a slow-moving cold front.
Early this morning, the boundary was draped from northeast
TX-central AR-southeast MO-southern IN. A corridor of higher PW
(1.5+ inch) extends along the frontal zone and this moisture plume
should move little through the period. Scattered convection has been
noted along the cool side of the front Sunday evening but lightning
is notably sparse at 06z. Forecast soundings along/north of the
front suggest the most buoyant parcels will be near 850-900mb where
MUCAPE should be on the order of 500-900 J/kg. With mid-level lapse
rates not expected to be particularly steep, updraft strength with
this activity should be limited along with the prospect for severe
hail. For these reasons, have opted to lower severe hail probs to
less than 5 percent.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/19/2020
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 05:36:29 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Great Plains on Tuesday
as flow becomes southwesterly at mid-levels from the Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward during the day across the northern and central
Plains as low-level moisture advects northward across the southern
Plains and Ozarks. The cold front will move southeastward into
Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois during the evening. Increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in thunderstorm
development during the evening and overnight. Weak instability will
limit any severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the Gulf Coast States but weak deep-layer shear and
instability should limit a severe threat there.
..Broyles.. 10/19/2020
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 05:40:19 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday from
the Rockies eastward to the Great Lakes. At the surface, high
pressure will dominate the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as moisture
returns northward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from late Wednesday
afternoon into the overnight period as low-level flow increases
along the northern edge of the moist sector from the central Plains
to the southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf
Coast States. A few storms may also develop from northeast Ohio into
northwestern New England. The combination of instability and shear
across the continental United States appears insufficient for a
severe threat on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 10/19/2020
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 07:12:28 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Intermountain West as southwest flow remains over the central U.S. A
cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Upper
Midwest as a low-level jet moves into the region from the southwest.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge of the
low-level jet from the central Plains northeastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. Instability
is forecast to be weak suggesting any severe threat would remain
marginal.
On Friday and Saturday, the medium-range models move a cold front
southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the
southeastern U.S. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along parts
of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. However,
instability is expected to be weak which will again keep any severe
threat marginal.
...Sunday/Day 7 to Monday/Day 8...
Model solutions sharply diverge late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Some
solutions show an upper-level trough in the western U.S. with others
having the trough further to the east into the Great Plains. If the
model solutions with the trough further east verify, then
thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough on Sunday and
Sunday night from the mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley
southwestward to the southern Plains. Under this scenario, the front
would move southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms would be possible along parts
of the front on Monday. However, the models are forecasting weak
instability in most areas suggesting any severe threat would be
marginal.
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 08:57:16 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow across the central CONUS is forecast to continue through
the forecast period. Cool surface temperatures will persist as high
pressure from Canada builds in across the northern US. The
increasingly cool airmass should keep widespread elevated and
critical fire weather potential low.
...Northern California...
Northeasterly flow is forecast to develop over portions of northern
California as a thermal surface pressure trough increases in
strength late in the period. While background winds will not be
overly strong, terrain gap enhancement and humidity as low as 15%
will support locally elevated fire weather conditions.
...Wyoming and northern Colorado...
Cool temperatures and higher humidity are expected over much of the
mountains ahead of and behind a cold front. Despite the less
favorable conditions, strong downslope flow, with gusts as high as
50 mph, may exacerbate locally elevated and critical fire weather
conditions near several large fires. No areas will be added due to
the localized nature of the threat.
..Lyons.. 10/19/2020
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 06:32:35 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level zonal flow will remain in places across the central CONUS
through Day2/Tuesday. Mid-level heights will gradually increase as
the flow aloft is shifted farther north through the day. At the
surface, a warm front will lift northward over the central and
eastern US, bringing a warm but moist airmass to the region. To the
north of the front, cooler air will remain in place.
...Northern California...
Breezy northeasterly winds will continue across portions of the
northern valley into Day2/Tuesday, as weak high pressure develops
over the Great Basin. The warm temperatures from a weak ridge of
high pressure should keep humidity recoveries overnight poor, with
daytime minimums near 10-15%. Pressure gradients are not forecast to
be overly strong, but locally enhanced winds, warm temperatures, and
abundant fuels will support elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions.
..Lyons.. 10/19/2020
Read more
Mon, 19 Oct 2020 06:57:29 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
We had it tough ... I had to get up at 9 o'clock at night, half an
hour before I went to bed, eat a lump of dry poison, work 29 hours down
mill, and when we came home our Dad would kill us, and dance about on
our grave singing Hallelujah ...
-- Monty Python
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