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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.10.20 14:27z 223 Lines 9695 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37880_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201020/1401Z 37880@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:58:01 +0000
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:58:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 20 08:58:01 UTC 2020.
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:57:05 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 20 08:58:01 UTC 2020.
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:57:05 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental United States
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger and broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will remain
across the northern CONUS on Tuesday as a pronounced shortwave
trough within the flow moves across the northern Plains/upper
Midwest. A surface cold front will move east across portions of the
northeast states and Ohio Valley while the western extension of the
front lifts northward as a warm front across the southern Plains.
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will develop near the
front Tuesday, aided by frontal convergence in the presence of
weak/isolated pockets of moderate surface-based buoyancy. The
stronger deep-layer shear will remain north of the more substantial
instability, and as a result severe storms are not expected.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across FL and
coastal sections of the southeast states in the vicinity of a
mid-level disturbance and weakening coastal front. Weak vertical
wind shear will limit intensity, however gusty winds will be
possible with the stronger storms.
..Bunting/Lyons.. 10/20/2020
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 05:40:33 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
Southwest mid-level flow will become established from the High
Plains to the Great Lakes from Wednesday into Wednesday night as an
upper-level trough moves across the western U.S. At the surface,
moisture advection will take place across the central Plains and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley as a low deepens in the central High
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening into the
overnight period along the northern edge of the moist sector as the
low-level jet strengthens, from Kansas east-northeastward into Iowa
and northern Illinois. Instability is forecast to be weak along this
corridor and unfavorable for a severe threat. Isolated thunderstorms
may also develop on Wednesday across in the Gulf Coast States and
Carolinas, where weak deep-layer shear will negate the potential for
a severe threat. A few non-severe storms may also occur in the lower
Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 10/20/2020
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 05:48:24 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in the Upper Midwest Thursday evening.
...Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the Great Plains
to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
quickly southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid
60s F which will contribute to the development of a narrow corridor
of instability during the late afternoon. As low-level convergence
increases along the front during the early evening, thunderstorms
are expected to develop. SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and
0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat mainly from northwest Missouri into southwest
Wisconsin. Hail and a few severe wind gusts will be possible with
the stronger cells. However, most of the convection is expected to
develop just behind the front where instability will be quite a bit
weaker. For this reason, any severe threat should remain marginal
Tuesday evening.
..Broyles.. 10/20/2020
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 07:31:15 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5...
On Friday, the medium-range models are in reasonable agreement,
moving an upper-level trough across the Intermountain West. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the
Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Although instability is forecast
to be weak ahead of the front, a marginal severe threat can not be
ruled out Friday afternoon in pockets that destabilize the most.
On Saturday, the models continue in reasonable agreement with an
upper-level trough in the western U.S. and west-southwest mid-level
flow from the Great Plains to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to be located from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the southern Appalachians. Instability along the front
is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that the severe threat could
be limited Saturday afternoon.
...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
Model solutions diverge in the latter half of the Day 4 to 8 period.
Some solutions develop an upper-level trough across the southern
High Plains by Monday with other solutions keeping the trough
further west in Desert Southwest. The faster solutions suggest that
a large area of precipitation will develop from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward to the Ohio Valley from late Sunday
night into Monday. If this scenario pans out, then thunderstorms
would be possible along the northern edge of the moist sector on
Monday from parts of Texas east-northeastward to the Tennessee
Valley. The faster solutions suggest the thunderstorm potential
would continue into Tuesday as a cold front moves across the
southern Appalachians and Southeast. Under this scenario,
instability would be relatively weak along and ahead of the front
keeping any severe threat marginal. Predictability remains low late
in the Day 4 to 8 period.
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:57:18 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail across the northern half
of the U.S. with several embed shortwave troughs. A stationary front
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will lift north as a warm front
through the day. Fire weather activity is forecast to remain
confined to the western US, where warmer and drier conditions
persist.
...Northern California...
Weak ridging over the West Coast should displace stronger mid-level
flow well to the north through the forecast period. A coastal
low/trough will drive modest low-level northeasterlies across much
of California and southern Oregon. Flow is not forecast to be overly
strong, but will likely be robust enough to support elevated and
locally critical fire weather conditions given low humidity of
12-20%, and critical fuels.
..Lyons.. 10/20/2020
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 06:39:30 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
The mid-level zonal flow pattern across the northern tier of the
U.S. will undergo amplification off the West Coast late
Day2/Wednesday. The increasing flow aloft and high pressure moving
onshore will increase surface pressure gradients across portions of
the West Coast. Lingering hot and dry conditions will likely support
elevated to near critical fire weather potential.
...Northern Central California...
Dry northerly/northeasterly surface winds will persist within the
northern Sacramento Valley vicinity through Wednesday. Flow is
forecast to increase later in the day as the northerly gradient
begin to tighten ahead of a maritime cold front. Dry downslope flow
will result in poor overnight humidity recoveries, and gusty surface
winds. Model soundings show boundary-layer gusts near 30 mph, and
humidity as low as 10%. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions appear likely given abundant critical fuels.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Flow aloft will increase late in the forecast period ahead of the
amplifying West Coast trough. Momentum transport from deep vertical
mixing may bolster low-level westerly winds enough to support some
locally elevated fire weather conditions overnight. Uncertainty
remains high enough on the spatial/temporal coverage of low humidity
and stronger winds that no areas have been added at this time.
..Lyons.. 10/20/2020
Read more
Tue, 20 Oct 2020 06:41:29 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
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