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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.10.20 14:31z 256 Lines 11864 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37925_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21 10
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<IK0MIL<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201021/1401Z 37925@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:02:02 +0000
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:02:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 21 09:02:02 UTC 2020.
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:01:05 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 21 09:02:02 UTC 2020.
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:01:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently progressing through the Upper Midwest is
expected to continue northeastward through eastern Ontario and
western Quebec today, moving within the strong, broadly cyclonic
upper flow extending from the Pacific Northwest through Quebec. An
associated surface low will take a similar path, moving just ahead
of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front extends from
this low southwestward into the southern Plains. Isolated lightning
strikes are possible near this weakening front early in the period.
Limited instability will temper the overall severe potential.
Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop from British Columbia
into the northern Rockies. Progression of this shortwave will
encourage a deepening lee trough, with the resultant increase in the
surface pressure gradient contributing to a northward surge of
low-level moisture across the southern/central Plains and mid MS
Valley.A dynamically enhanced low-level jet will also develop
ahead of the approaching shortwave, stretching from the southern
High Plains through the mid MS Valley. Warm-air advection associated
with this low-level jet will result in elevated thunderstorms across
the mid MS Valley Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.
Instability will be limited but vertical shear may be strong enough
to support a few stronger, more persistent updrafts capable of hail.
Likely low coverage coupled with low overall potential preclude
introducing any hail probabilities in this outlook. Cold mid-level
temperatures accompanying this shortwave may also result in enough
instability for a few lightning strikes over the northern Rockies.
Farther south, a weakening tropical wave will support isolated
thunderstorms across FL and portions of the GA and the Carolinas.
Moist easterly flow across the Gulf and into the middle/lower TX
Gulf Coast could also support isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 10/21/2020
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:48:14 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in the Upper Midwest Thursday evening. The
hail threat could extend into parts of the central Plains.
...Upper Midwest/Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the central Plains
to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southeastward across the central Plains, mid Missouri Valley and
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong low-level convergence will likely
result in thunderstorm development just behind the front Thursday
evening. Although the strongest instability will be ahead of the
front, weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast
behind the front. Thunderstorms that develop in this environment
could have a hail threat. Isolated thunderstorms may also initiate
ahead of the front in the stronger instability. In the pre-frontal
airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to be near 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear
of 30 to 40 kt. Although conditional, rotating storms would be
possible in this environment. For this reason, hail, strong gusty
winds and a marginal tornado threat would be possible.
Further southwest into the central Plains, thunderstorm development
is forecast just behind the front during the mid to late evening.
Although instability will be weak behind the front, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 40 to 50 kt range. This would be enough for a
marginal hail threat with the stronger thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 10/21/2020
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:56:37 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States Friday and Friday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A west-southwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to be in place
from the Great Plains to Appalachians on Friday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward into the Ohio Valley, mid
Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. A narrow corridor of instability will
develop during the afternoon ahead of the front. Model forecasts
suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the
front where instability is forecast to be weak. Isolated
thunderstorms may also develop along the instability corridor ahead
of the front. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak
in most of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Friday,
suggesting that the environment will not be sufficient for severe
storms.
Further southwest into the lower Mississippi Valley, isolated
thunderstorms may also develop during the mid to late afternoon.
Although adequate instability is forecast across parts of Louisiana
and Mississippi in the afternoon, 0-6 km shear should remain near or
below 30 kt suggesting a severe threat is not likely.
..Broyles.. 10/21/2020
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 07:22:44 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in decent agreement on Saturday,
establishing southwest flow from the Great Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass will be in place
across much of the central and northeastern U.S. Thunderstorms could
develop in parts of the Gulf Coast States Saturday afternoon but
weak instability is expected to limit any severe threat.
On Sunday, the models reinforce the cold airmass in the central U.S.
as a front moves quickly southward into the southern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front,
mainly from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great
Lakes. Instability will most likely be weak ahead of the front,
keeping any severe threat marginal Sunday afternoon.
...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
Southwest mid-level flow is maintained by the model solutions on
Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys into the Southeast. Thunderstorms could develop along the
front Monday and Tuesday afternoon. However, instability is forecast
to be very weak suggesting a severe threat would be limited.
On Wednesday, the models solutions diverge. Some models move an
upper-level low into the southern Plains during the day. Other
solutions move the upper-level low through the Desert Southwest.
This solutions move the system into the central Rockies Wednesday
night. Under that scenario, thunderstorms associated with a marginal
severe risk could develop in the Red River Valley Wednesday night as
low-level moisture return occurs. However, uncertainty is very high
due to the large spread of model solutions.
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:01:21 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS will
amplify across the West Coast as a shortwave trough moves onshore
over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front will make its way south and
east along the coast of California, and into the Great Basin,
bringing gusty northeasterly surface winds. Elevated fire weather
potential is likely with warm and breezy conditions across
California.
...Northern California...
Dry northerly surface winds were observed across portions of the
Sacramento valley early this morning indicating ongoing poor
overnight humidity recoveries. With low-level pressure gradients
forecast to intensify today, north-northeasterly low-level winds
near 15 to 20 mph appear likely. Warm temperatures are expected to
support a well-mixed lower atmosphere, that should keep humidity
values low, around 10-15%. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions appear probable given the favorable overlap of gusty
winds, low humidity, and critical fuels.
...Eastern Great Basin into Colorado...
Ahead of the cold front, gusty westerly winds are expected across
portions of Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. Cooler temperatures are
forecast through the day across this area, which will likely keep
humidity values above elevated and critical criteria. However, fuel
dryness and the increasing low-level winds ahead of the front may
support locally elevated and critical fire weather conditions. This
will be especially true near several ongoing large fires where
high-density critical fuels remain.
..Lyons.. 10/21/2020
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 06:37:36 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal mid-level flow across the eastern US will be punctuated
by an amplifying shortwave trough across the northern Rockies. A
strong cold front is forecast to move south out of the Great Basin
and onto the southern High Plains late in the period. Dry and windy
conditions are expected to support critical fire weather potential
across California and portions of the southern High Plains.
...California...
The southward-moving cold front will increase north-northeasterly
winds across much of northern and central California. With very warm
and dry conditions expected under a weak ridge near the West Coast,
critical humidity values of 10-15% are expected. The increase in
winds to 20-30 mph will likely support critical fire weather
conditions through the northern Coastal Ranges and portions of the
Sacramento Valley.
...Southern High Plains...
A deepening lee low across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
will intensify westerly winds through the afternoon hours. A dryline
is forecast to develop south from the low, bifurcating the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles. Very dry and gusty surface conditions are
expected west of the dryline, with humidity of 10-15% and wind gusts
over 35 mph. Critical fire weather conditions are likely given
little recent rainfall and plentiful fuels. The cold front moving
south out of Colorado should reduce fire weather concerns as it
moves south overnight bringing cooler temperatures.
..Lyons.. 10/21/2020
Read more
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 06:41:33 +0000
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