| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 22.10.20 14:03z 260 Lines 11944 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38251_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<YT7MPB<GB7CIP<N7HPX<N3DWB<
LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201022/1400Z 38251@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:26:02 +0000
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:26:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 22 08:26:02 UTC 2020.
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:25:23 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 22 08:26:02 UTC 2020.
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:25:23 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
EASTERN IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms capable of producing mainly hail and
strong wind gusts, will be possible Thursday from the eastern Iowa
vicinity into extreme southwest Wisconsin.
...Eastern Iowa into extreme southwest Wisconsin...
An upper trough will amplify over the northern Plains and upper
Midwest today. A warm front currently extends from southern KS
through southern MO and IL. This feature will move northward during
the day and should extend from a weak surface low in east-central IA
to near the IL/WI border by late afternoon. This front will likely
move into southern WI during the early evening. Concurrently, a cold
front extending southwest from the surface low will surge southeast
through the central and southern Plains and middle MS Valley regions
this afternoon and evening.
A moist warm sector with dewpoints in the low 60s F will advect
northward into the Midwest region in wake of the warm front. A few
cloud breaks may occur, and MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg is possible
just ahead of the cold front. Stronger deep-layer forcing associated
with the upper trough will remain in post-frontal region, but storms
will likely initiate along and just behind the front as it advances
southeast during the day. Vertical wind profiles in vicinity of the
cold front will be favorable for storm organization with 45 kt
effective bulk shear and sizeable low-level hodographs, especially
near triple point region as the weak surface low develops northeast.
However, with upper flow remaining nearly parallel to the initiating
boundary, tendency should be for storms to be undercut shortly after
initiation. Nevertheless, activity developing along the cold front
might become organized and capable of producing a few instances of
large hail and damaging wind. While a brief tornado or cannot be
ruled out, overall tornado threat should remain limited by tendency
for storms to be forced behind the cold front.
...West Texas...
A compact southern-stream shortwave trough evident on satellite
imagery over AZ is embedded within weak flow aloft and will reach
west TX by late afternoon, where it will interact with an evolving
dryline. A few storms are expected to develop along this boundary by
late afternoon across western TX where the atmosphere is expected to
become moderately unstable. Though vertical shear should remain
modest, steep lapse rates, inverted-V boundary layers and 1000-1500
j/kg MLCAPE will support some threat for a few locally strong wind
gusts and hail, before activity weakens as it moves farther east
into a stabilizing boundary layer by mid evening.
..Dial/Lyons.. 10/22/2020
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 05:57:22 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
...Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest on Friday
as southwesterly mid-level flow is maintained across much of the
northeast. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to move
quickly southeastward across the Great Lakes region and lower Ohio
Valley. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface
dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F from parts of western
Tennessee into western Kentucky and western Ohio. Moderate
instability is now forecast to develop Friday afternoon along this
corridor. As instability increases in the afternoon, scattered
thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the front. A line of
thunderstorms may also develop just behind the front. The convection
ahead of the front in the stronger instability could pose a marginal
severe risk in the late afternoon.
Forecast soundings from Paducah northeastward into Cincinnati
increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range by 21Z and have 25
to 30 kt of 0-6 km shear. This would support multicell formation as
the primary mode. A rotating storm or two can not be ruled out if
deep-layer shear ends up being a bit stronger than currently
forecast. Multicells that develop into line segments may be
associated with an isolated wind damage threat. The cells that
develop near the stronger instability may also have a hail threat.
At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal,
mainly due to the poor lapse rates that are forecast across the
area.
..Broyles.. 10/22/2020
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 06:06:51 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.
...DISCUSSION...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of the
central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. A cold front is forecast to
move slowly southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, southern
Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms may form
along parts of the front Saturday afternoon but instability is
forecast to be very weak. For this reason, severe thunderstorm
development is not expected in the continental United States from
Saturday into Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 10/22/2020
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 07:29:51 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
On Sunday, the medium-range models have west-southwesterly mid-level
flow across most of the United States. A cold and dry air mass is
forecast to be in place across much of the northern and central U.S.
The moist sector should be confined to the Gulf Coast States where
isolated thunderstorms could develop Sunday afternoon. Weak
instability should limit a severe threat.
On Monday, the models are forecasting a subtle shortwave trough to
move northeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead
of this feature Monday afternoon. However, instability is forecast
to be weak on Monday suggesting a limited severe weather risk.
On Tuesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move across the Desert
Southwest. Southwest mid-level flow should be located across the
southern and eastern states. In spite of a moist air mass across the
Southeast, instability is forecast to remain weak during the day.
Although some thunderstorm development could occur from the Arklatex
into the central Gulf Coast States, any severe threat is expected to
remain marginal.
...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
The medium-range models move an upper-level low across the southern
High Plains on Wednesday and into the Red River Valley and Arklatex
from Thursday into Thursday night. Thunderstorm development will be
possible each day to the east of the upper-level low near the
northwestern edge of the moist sector. Although instability is
forecast to be weak ahead of the upper-level low, a marginal severe
threat can not be ruled out each day. The risk for hail and strong
gusty winds would be maximized in the Arklatex on Wednesday and in
the Southeast on Thursday. However, predictability this far out in
the forecast period remains quite low.
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:25:34 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will intensify over the central Plains
today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Rockies. Gusty
surface winds are expected across the southern Plains ahead of a lee
low, while offshore winds are forecast across northern California.
...Northern California...
High pressure settling over the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
will drive north-northeasterly low-level flow across much of the
Sacramento Valley. Offshore flow near the northern Coastal Ranges
will be dry with relative humidities in the 10 to 15% range. With
warm temperatures and wind gusts above 35 mph, critical fire weather
conditions are likely.
...Southern High Plains...
A lee low will strengthen across New Mexico and west Texas through
the afternoon hours. On the west side of a dryline, gusty southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph and low humidity of 10 to 15% will likely
support critical fire weather conditions. A cold front moving south
out of Colorado will end the fire weather concerns in the evening as
cooler and more moist air sweeps in from the north.
To the north across southern Colorado, elevated and locally critical
fire weather conditions appear likely ahead of the cold front.
Downslope winds off the Rockies will support fire weather conditions
through the first half of the afternoon. The primary limiting factor
will be the rapidly advancing front bringing increased humidity
later in the day. Winds will gradually decrease behind the front,
ending organized fire weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 10/22/2020
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 06:42:07 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and jet streak will intensify as they
eject eastward into the Great Lakes through Day2/Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will continue southward toward the Gulf of
Mexico, bringing well below average temperatures to much of the
central CONUS. The cooler air and increase in precipitation will
keep the fire weather threat low through the forecast period.
...California...
Northeasterly low-level flow will linger through the early morning
hours as pressure gradients gradually relax. With poor overnight
humidity recoveries near 30% forecast, elevated and locally critical
fire weather conditions may persist until sunrise. There after,
winds are forecast to decrease below elevated criteria, keeping fire
weather concerns low. Locally elevated conditions may remain where
terrain-enhanced winds and heavy fuel loads coexist.
..Lyons.. 10/22/2020
Read more
Thu, 22 Oct 2020 06:45:25 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
From the Pro 350 Pocket Service Guide, p. 49, Step 5 of the
instructions on removing an I/O board from the card cage, comes a new
experience in sound:
5. Turn the handle to the right 90 degrees. The pin-spreading
sound is normal for this type of connector.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
