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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.10.20 14:05z 239 Lines 10609 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38291_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<YT7MPB<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201023/1400Z 38291@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:35:02 +0000
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:35:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 23 08:35:02 UTC 2020.
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:34:26 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 23 08:35:02 UTC 2020.
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:34:18 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Threat for a few severe storms capable of damaging wind, hail and
perhaps a tornado or two will exist this afternoon into the early
evening over a portion of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
...Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region...
A mid-upper speed max situated within the base of a synoptic trough
will move through the Great Lakes today. Accompanying weak surface
low will develop northeastward through the Great Lakes this morning
with a moist warm sector (low to mid 60s F dewpoints) advecting into
the southern portion of lower MI. Cold front trailing from the low
will reach Lake Erie southwestward into the lower MS Valley by early
evening. Diabatic warming of the surface layer and modest mid level
lapse rates will promote moderate instability in pre-frontal warm
sector with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Vertical shear will
strengthen as the upper jet advances through the Great Lakes with
40-45 kt effective bulk shear along with 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km storm
relative helicity, especially from northern IN into southern lower
MI. Elevated storms should be ongoing in post-frontal region during
the morning. However, surface-based storms are expected to develop
along the cold front from southern lower MI into IN as it encounters
an increasingly unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Vertical
wind profiles will be sufficient for organized structures,
especially with storms that can be sustained for a while along the
advancing cold front before potentially being undercut. Damaging
wind and hail are the primary threats, but a tornado or two will
also be possible.
..Dial/Cook.. 10/23/2020
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 05:37:23 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. on
Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass much of the northern
tier of states on Saturday.A cold front will push eastward across
the Northeast.The trailing portion of the front will weaken during
the period as it moves southeast across the southern Appalachians
and lower MS Valley.Farther west, surface cyclogenesis will occur
in the central High Plains during the day, and the trailing portion
of the front over the lower MS Valley will advance northward as a
warm front over the southern Great Plains.A cold front will push
southward over the central High Plains during the evening/overnight.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from the
northeast Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians/VA during the
day.Relatively weak large-scale forcing and limited instability
will likely preclude strong thunderstorms from developing.The
shower/thunderstorm activity will diminish by the early evening
hours.
..Smith.. 10/23/2020
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 05:43:04 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous U.S. on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt, mid-level trough will amplify over the western
states as a potent disturbance moves equatorward along the West
Coast on Sunday through Sunday night.A belt of strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Four Corners
northeastward across the central Great Plains and into the Great
Lakes.In the low levels, a cold front initially over the northern
TX Panhandle will surge southward through central TX and near the
OK-TX-AR border by daybreak Monday.
Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast
from TX northeastward into the southern Great Lakes during the Day-3
period.However, it appears the onset of weak instability
translating to shower/thunderstorm potential will primarily occur
late Sunday into Sunday night immediately on or behind the surface
front.Although a few brief stronger storms cannot be ruled out
(western Ozark Plateau), it appears the risk for organized severe
storms will be limited.
Elsewhere, a few weak thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians in the
central and southern FL Peninsula.
..Smith.. 10/23/2020
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 06:50:03 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positive-tilt large-scale trough over the western U.S. on Monday
will likely evolve into a closed mid-level low and meander eastward
into the southern Great Plains by the Wednesday-Thursday (day 6-7)
timeframe.Medium-range model guidance varies on the
timing/placement of mid-level low and subsequent surface reflection
over the lower MS Valley.Given the model predictability concerns
during the latter half of the extended period, a
predictability-too-low highlight will be maintained.If strong
storms develop during the late Wednesday through Friday period next
week, the potential at this point would focus over the lower MS
Valley and central Gulf Coast.
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:34:54 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper jet stream will remain in place across much of
the CONUS - extending from the Pacific Northwest to the central
Rockies and on through the Great Lakes.Meanwhile at the surface,
stout ridging across the Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern
Plains will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, gradually
reducing the surface pressure gradient in dry areas of the West.
Nevertheless, areas of windy and dry conditions will result in
elevated to locally critical fire-weather - especially in northern
California and the central Rockies.
...Four Corners northeastward to much of Colorado...
Vertical mixing processes and terrain will foster areas of 15-25 mph
surface winds (with higher gusts in local areas) during the
afternoon.Additionally, warming surface temperatures will result
in areas of elevated to critical RH values (as low as 15% or so) in
conjunction with the locally enhanced winds.Dry fuels will support
fire spread in these areas.
Later in the evening and overnight, winds will increase dramatically
in the higher terrain where several large fires are ongoing and
extremely dry fuels are in place.A few areas of 40-60 mph gusts
are likely.This will result in a risk of rapid fire spread despite
relatively high RH values.An elevated delineation has also been
introduced to address this threat.
...Northern California...
Early in the forecast period (through 18Z or so), a lingering
surface pressure gradient will result in areas of gusty
northerly/northeasterly winds locally exceeding 20 mph.These winds
will occur amidst low RH due to poor overnight recoveries, with
areas of 12-25% RH common even in the morning hours.These
conditions will favor fire spread with ongoing fires in the region.
Winds should slacken some during the afternoon.
..Cook.. 10/23/2020
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 06:59:33 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong flow aloft will remain in place across much of the West as a
vigorous, positive-tilt shortwave trough migrates into Montana.
Mid-level wind speeds may exceed 90 knots across portions of
Washington State and Oregon.The aforementioned mid-level features
will be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis over the southern
Rockies and an advancing anticyclone over the northern Rockies and
inland portions of the Pacific Northwest.The overall pattern will
result in areas of strong surface winds in many areas of the West
along with elevated to locally critical fire-weather.
...Four Corners region/central Rockies and a small part of the High
Plains...
The combination of the strengthening surface pressure gradient and
very strong flow aloft will result in broad areas of 20-30 mph
surface winds, with gusts to 60 mph in terrain-favored areas.A
critical burn environment remains in place in many of these areas,
with record-high ERCs and very large ongoing fires.The main
limiting factor for a higher fire-weather threat is only modestly
low RH values, which may not fall below 15% for sufficient duration
to justify any critical upgrades.Central/southern Colorado into
northeastern New Mexico appears to have the greatest chance of
critically low RH during peak heating hours, and these areas may
need critical upgrades in later outlooks pending observations and
newer model guidance.
...Western/central Oregon and far northern California...
The strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in areas of
strengthening surface winds (exceeding 20-30 mph), though these
winds will likely occur during the overnight hours when surface
temperatures are at a minimum.Nevertheless, dry fuels are in place
across the region (as evidenced by several large fires in the area).
At this time, it appears that the most likely risk for elevated
fire-weather (low RH values in tandem with the strengthening surface
winds) will occur in the D3/Sun timeframe.
..Cook.. 10/23/2020
Read more
Fri, 23 Oct 2020 07:04:27 +0000
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