| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 24.10.20 14:18z 215 Lines 9114 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38343_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201024/1400Z 38343@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:55:02 +0000
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:55:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 24 08:55:03 UTC 2020.
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:54:23 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 24 08:55:03 UTC 2020.
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:54:15 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the northwestern
U.S. today, as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in place
from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A shortwave trough
will move eastward across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold
front will move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, southern
Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, weak
instability is forecast today, which should result in scattered
thunderstorm development across much of the Southeast into the
Carolinas. The weak instability should keep convection below severe
limits. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm
development is not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Cook.. 10/24/2020
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 05:53:22 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous U.S. on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern will amplify over the western U.S. on Sunday
as a large-scale trough digs southward into the Colorado River
valley.A broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will
extend northeastward from the Desert Southwest through the central
Great Plains and into the Great Lakes.In the low levels, an arctic
cold front will surge southward across a large part of the southern
Great Plains during the period with only a weak low/inverted surface
trough draped northeastward from TX into the Ozark Plateau.
Isolated weak/disorganized thunderstorms are forecast during the day
on Sunday across parts of FL and parts of the southern Appalachians.
The risk for showers and a few post-frontal/elevated thunderstorms
will increase Sunday night across the southern Great Plains as a
40-kt southerly LLJ develops.Weak instability will likely preclude
severe thunderstorms from developing with the late-night activity.
..Smith.. 10/24/2020
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 06:00:05 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest
will evolve into a slow-moving mid-level low over the AZ during the
period.Meanwhile downstream of this feature, a belt of strong flow
will move little as a mid-level anticyclone remains entrenched over
FL.In the low levels, a surface front will decelerate as it moves
into the Arklatex.Mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent will
primarily be displaced farther west over the southern Rockies with
showers and a few widely spaced thunderstorms possible across TX
into the Ozarks.Only weak instability is forecast and
severe-thunderstorm activity is not expected.
..Smith.. 10/24/2020
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 07:03:35 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show a mid-level low over the southern Rockies
on Tuesday.This feature is forecast to move eastward across the
south-central U.S. during the middle part of next week, and
subsequently to the southern Appalachians/Carolinas late in the work
week.Models continue to differ on the evolution of the low/trough
with substantial model spread.Confidence is relatively low in the
quality of a returning warm sector across the central/northeast Gulf
Coast and possibly into the Carolinas during this timeframe.
Therefore, a predictability-too-low highlight characterizes the
Wednesday-Friday (day 5-day 7) period.
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:54:53 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A very strong wind event in portions of the Rockies and Great Basin
will continue today as mid-level troughing in the northern Rockies
contributes to very strong flow aloft across much of the West.
Strong surface cyclogenesis across Utah/Colorado and surface ridging
across Montana/Wyoming will also contribute to a strong surface
pressure gradient in much of the Rockies.
...Eastern Nevada though Colorado, New Mexico, and adjacent areas of
the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas...
Areas of 20-30 mph surface winds (increasing to 40+ in
terrain-favored areas) will develop over the course of the day in
much of the elevated area.Fuels are dry in this region, which
continue to support the presence of several very large fires
especially in north-central Colorado.By afternoon RH values will
lower into the 20-25% range areawide through peak heating and fall
into the 10-15% range across portions of south-central Colorado and
northeastern New Mexico.The critical delineation exists in areas
most likely to experience <15% RH values for several hours during
the afternoon amidst the strong surface flow.
In north-central/central Colorado, RH values may not fall below 15%.
However, the presence of very dry fuels (record ERCs) and wind gusts
reaching 60 mph at times will promote rapid spread of already
impactful large fires in the region.Thus, the critical delineation
has been expanded northwestward into those areas for the forecast
period.
..Cook.. 10/24/2020
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 07:00:07 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
A favorable pattern for fire weather will continue on D2/Sun.A
deepening mid-level trough over the Rockies will foster development
of strong flow aloft along the western tier of the CONUS and also
downstream over the Plains and Great Lakes.Meanwhile, a very
strong (1046 hPa) anticyclone will migrate southward across much of
the Intermountain West.This feature, in combination with surface
troughing along the immediate West Coast, Lower Colorado River
Valley, and southern Rockies will once again promote areas of dry,
windy conditions - particularly in California, Oregon, Arizona, and
New Mexico.
...Northern California and southwestern Oregon...
The aforementioned surface features will foster areas of
northerly/northeasterly surface winds throughout the forecast
period, with 20 mph gusts possible even at the start of the forecast
period (carrying over from late D1/Sat.)These breezy to windy
conditions will continue throughout the day, while surface heating
contributes to falling RH values (below 15% in several areas) amidst
dry fuels.At this time, models indicate the that lowest RH and
strongest flow will occur in the northern and central Sacramento
Valley, where single-digit RH values may develop.Slightly higher
RH values will exist farther north into Oregon, though gusty winds
and dry fuels may support fire spread there as well.
...Arizona, New Mexico, and the Four Corners region...
The favorable pressure gradient and vertical mixing processes will
promote widespread areas of 20+ mph westerly surface winds through
peak heating hours in much of the region - locally stronger in
terrain-favored areas.Fuels guidance suggests dry fuels favoring
fire spread in the region, with the limiting factor for a higher
fire-weather threat being RH values (only falling into the 15-25%
range in most areas).A trend toward lower RH in later model
guidance may necessitate critical upgrades in a few areas -
especially in southern New Mexico.
..Cook.. 10/24/2020
Read more
Sat, 24 Oct 2020 07:02:53 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
Love thy neighbor as thyself, but choose your neighborhood.
-- Louise Beal
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
