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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.10.20 14:28z 298 Lines 13804 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38437_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<N9LCF<W9GM<
N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201026/1400Z 38437@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 09:00:03 +0000
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 09:00:03 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 26 09:00:03 UTC 2020.
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 08:59:10 +0000
MD 1755 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM...MUCH OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK/EASTERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Areas affected...Far East-Central NM...Much of the TX
Panhandle...Western OK/Eastern OK Panhandle
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 260617Z - 261015Z
SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation, predominantly sleet, is
expected this morning from far east-central NM across the TX
Panhandle into western OK.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown an increase in
precipitation coverage during the past few hours as isentropic
ascent persists across the southern Plains/southern High Plains. 00Z
AMA sounding sampled a shallow cold layer well, revealing a cold
layer extending to 850 mb (about 1 km deep). Above this cold layer,
warm temperatures associated with the persistent southwesterly flow
aloft resulted in a strong inversion, with 700 mb temperatures near
7 to 8 deg C. This results in a thermodynamic profile supporting
mixed precipitation, predominantly sleet, once the mid-level layer
moistens enough to erode the dry layer in place. The increase in
precipitation coverage noted in regional radars is likely evidence
of that ongoing moistening process, which is expected to continue
and will soon support precipitation reaching the surface over much
of this region.
Given the anticipated persistence of the southwesterly flow aloft
and resulting maintenance of the warm layer aloft, the expectation
is for an area of mixed winter precipitation to develop from far
east-central NM across the TX Panhandle in western OK/eastern OK
Panhandle. Sleet is expected to be the dominant precipitation type.
Additionally, elevated instability, based the at the top of the warm
layer around 700 mb, could contribute to higher precipitation rates
as well as occasional lightning. Current observations show lightning
within the precipitation band from Potter County TX into Harper
County OK.
..Mosier.. 10/26/2020
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON35500332 36190236 37200002 36959882 36039911 35399962
34630075 34150235 34130337 34390375 34850375 35500332
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 06:18:02 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
mainland today or tonight.
...Southern Plains region...
A large area of CP high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Plains, pushing a cold front to near the TX coast by 12Z
Tuesday. The southwest-northeast oriented low-level baroclinic zone
north of the surface cold front will serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development this period. A southerly low-level jet will
strengthen tonight across the southern Plains downstream from an
upper trough amplifying across the Great Basin. Frontogenetic
forcing and isentropic ascent within the baroclinic zone will
contribute to the development of a corridor of scattered
thunderstorms across portions of TX into OK today, with another
round forecast for later tonight. Storms will remain elevated above
the stable surface layer, but some small to marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out with initial burst of storms early in the
period, mainly across a portion of west TX where somewhat greater
instability and steeper lapse rates will reside.
..Dial.. 10/26/2020
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 06:06:26 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from southeast AZ eastward across southern
NM during the period and remain displaced to the south of the
primary belt of westerlies located over the northern tier of states.
Tropical cyclone Zeta is forecast to move from the Yucatan Peninsula
north-northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico south of
southern LA.In the low levels, an arctic front will move little
from south TX north-northeastward along the TX coast and into the
lower MS Valley.Weak elevated instability and large-scale forcing
will promote episodic, elevated, and widely spaced thunderstorms
across the southern Great Plains.Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible near the Gulf Coast as a maritime tropical airmass
infiltrates the northern Gulf of Mexico and the adjacent coastal
plain.It appears the onset of stronger low-level flow contributing
to enlarged hodographs over portions of the central Gulf Coast will
occur after the end of the day 2 period (early Wednesday morning).
..Smith.. 10/26/2020
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 06:12:38 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A risk for thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging gusts
and/or a tornado is most probable over parts of the central Gulf
Coast states on Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with
Zeta.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move eastward from eastern NM into OK while
tropical cyclone Zeta makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast.
Zeta will move north, then northeast and merge with the baroclinic
regime over the lower MS Valley.Refer to the National Hurricane
Center forecasts for the latest track updates.
The potential for severe is focused on the inland penetration of a
tropical airmass into the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast
states.At this point, the severe forecast is subject to
potentially large spatial adjustments based on large uncertainty in
the eventual track of tropical cyclone Zeta.Zeta is forecast to
move ashore and subsequently accelerate northeast across parts of
the South late Wednesday night.However, it seems plausible at this
point for highlighting the central Gulf Coast with potential
tornado/damaging-gust hazards.Hodographs will enlarge during the
day and sufficient buoyancy will likely develop near the coast and
gradually spread inland into interior AL overnight.
Elsewhere, isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible farther west
over the southern Great Plains and farther north in the OH Valley
late.
..Smith.. 10/26/2020
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 07:19:40 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY
...DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe thunderstorms will focus on Thursday (day
4) from the FL Panhandle northward into the southern Appalachians
and perhaps into the Mid-Atlantic states, as Zeta accelerates to the
northeast ahead of a mid-level low.Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding Zeta's track and the degree of destabilization
that can occur.In wake of Zeta, a cold front will sweep eastward
across the Southeast and move into the western Atlantic early Friday
(day 5).Model guidance is in good agreement in depicting no
appreciable return of a destabilizing warm sector into the Gulf
Coast states and eastern U.S.As a result, a quiescent pattern for
severe activity will likely begin Friday (day 5) and continue
through the end of the extended period.
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 08:59:23 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAY AREA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
A very steep pressure gradient will persist across dry areas of the
West and Southwest today in response to 1) very strong high pressure
over the western Great Basin and 2) surface troughing from the
California coastline southeastward through Arizona and western New
Mexico.Additionally, very strong flow aloft will persist across
these areas in response to a vigorous mid-level wave expected to be
centered over Utah at 12Z and Arizona in the evening.Continued dry
fuels and areas of drought will continue to support higher-end
fire-weather conditions particularly in portions of California.
...Southern California...
Models/high resolution guidance continue to indicate very strong
flow across typical, terrain-favored areas of the southern
Transverse Ranges throughout the forecast period.Northeasterly
surface flow will range from 25-35 mph, with gusts perhaps as high
as 70 mph in spots.Meanwhile, very low RH will continue given the
dry airmass in place, with 5-15% values becoming common during the
day as surface heating commences.Fuels remain dry and favorable
for fire spread given continued dry conditions over the past several
months.Guidance suggests that these conditions will continue even
into the evening hours, owing to poor overnight recoveries and the
continued offshore gradient.
...Northern California and the Bay Area...
Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions will likely be ongoing
at the start of the period as current (05Z-06Z) observations
indicate areas of 25-35 mph northerly low-level flow and 7-15% RH
values, indicating very poor recovery.The strong surface pressure
gradient and favorable upper support suggest that these conditions
will continue throughout the day, with RH values remaining low amid
surface warming.A few areas may experience gusts to 70 mph.Fuels
remain extremely dry/combustible, and a few areas will likely exceed
extremely critical thresholds at times - especially in areas between
Sacramento and San Francisco/Oakland and including the North Bay
Mountains and East Bay Hills.
...Southern Nevada through the Lower Colorado River Valley...
Recent high-resolution guidance indicates that enough surface
warming will occur for temperatures to reach the 60s F during peak
heating hours despite northerly surface flow and modest cold
advection.The residing airmass across the region is quite dry, and
as temperatures increase, surface RH values will fall into the 5-15%
range during the afternoon.Additionally, surface winds will
increase into the 25-35 mph range given the surface pressure
gradient across the region.Critical fire-weather delineations
exist where the aforementioned conditions are most likely to occur
amidst dry fuels/fuel beds.
..Cook.. 10/26/2020
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 06:54:50 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions will continue across
California and the Desert Southwest on D2/Tuesday as a persistently
strong surface pressure gradient resides in these areas.There are
indications that this gradient will weaken midday as high pressure
over Nevada weakens slightly.However, models also indicate a
restrengthening of the gradient in the latter half of the forecast
period, which should maintain areas of gusty northerly/northeasterly
surface winds and very low RH.
...Northern California and the Bay Area...
Given the continued favorable pattern for fire weather, it is likely
that elevated to critical fire-weather conditions (20-30 mph
northerly flow and 5-20% RH values) will be ongoing early in the
forecast period.Winds will slacken only briefly in a few areas
during the day as temporary weakening of the surface pressure
gradient occurs.This gradient will reintensify, however, with
strong winds returning during the afternoon and continuing
overnight.Fuels remain very dry in this region, and ERCs remain
near record levels.Thus, an environment favorable for rapid fire
spread will continue - especially in the critical delineation across
the Sacramento Valley and eastern portions of the Bay Area.
...Coastal ranges of Southern California...
The favorable offshore flow pattern will persist throughout the day
across the region, and although slightly weaker winds are expected
compared to D1/Monday, gusts to 50 mph or higher cannot be
completely ruled out in terrain-favored areas.Fuels remain dry,
and RH values will also exhibit poor recovery overnight while
falling again into the 5-15% range amid peak heating.Critical
fire-weather conditions are expected to persist throughout the day
and continue into the overnight hours.
..Cook.. 10/26/2020
Read more
Mon, 26 Oct 2020 07:18:35 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
Why isn't there a special name for the tops of your feet?
-- Lily Tomlin
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