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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.10.20 14:36z 308 Lines 14337 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38542_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<I0BLC<IK0MIL<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201027/1400Z 38542@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:21:02 +0000
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:21:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 27 09:21:02 UTC 2020.
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:20:06 +0000
MD 1759 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western/Central OK
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 270919Z - 271315Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will increase across far northwest
TX and western/central OK over the next few hours. Relatively high
precipitation rates and lightning are possible within the deeper
convective cells.
DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield, with numerous embedded
convective elements, continues to spread northeastward ahead of the
shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. Recent
surface observations place the freezing line from near BKD in North
Texas northeastward through south-central OK to just north of TUL in
northeast OK. The majority of the precipitation spreading
northeastward will remain north of this line. 06Z regional soundings
as well as the latest RAP forecast soundings also show a
well-defined warm layer between 850 mb and 700 mb, with maximum
temperatures from 4 to 8 deg C. Some modest instability also exists
above this layer between the warm nose and the cold mid-level
temperatures. These thermal profiles support a mix of sleet and
freezing rain, as well as lightning within the deep cores. Based on
recent radar and lightning trends, the highest precipitation rates
over the next few hours are expected from parts of northwest TX into
central OK.
..Mosier.. 10/27/2020
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON34450045 36310000 36779853 36229735 35279692 33849795
33509866 33579971 34450045
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:20:03 +0000
MD 1758 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Areas affected...portions of west Texas and far western Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 270522Z - 271115Z
SUMMARY...Forcing for ascent will gradually overspread the
discussion area from west to east, resulting in a broad area of
icing through 11Z Tuesday.
DISCUSSION...At 05Z, mid-level frontogenetical forcing was beginning
to induce areas of light to moderate precipitation in western
portions of the discussion area.The forcing was occurring atop a
cold, yet moist low-level airmass, with an appreciable warm nose
(4-7C at 700 hPa) favoring a mix of sleet and freezing rain as the
precipitation shield continues to expand.Resultant profiles also
suggest potential for robust, lightning-producing convection that
may also enhance precipitation rates in a few areas.Over the next
several hours, models indicate that this precipitation shield will
expand while migrating northeastward.Freezing-rain rates should
exceed 0.05-0.1 inch per hour for several hours on the southern and
eastern extent of the discussion area (generally from Midland to
Abilene to Altus) where shallower cold air should limit the amount
of refreezing of precipitation.Farther north, deeper cold air
should tend to support more sleet, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5
inch sleet per three hours possible in a few areas.
..Cook.. 10/27/2020
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON35020302 35620272 36280184 36580014 36249947 35499922
34439927 33839934 32429937 31389960 30789996 30510071
30290171 30310248 30750297 31590341 32440341 35020302
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 05:23:02 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
moving south toward the AZ/Mexico border. This feature is forecast
to begin advancing east along the international border later this
morning, then into extreme southwest NM by late afternoon. Very cold
continental surface high has settled into the central Plains with
the leading edge of this air mass now to the coastal plain of TX.
Latest model guidance continues to suggest low-level warm advection
will focus along a corridor from the Edwards Plateau-northwest
TX-central OK. This zone will be the primary area of concern for
elevated convection through the period.
Currently, the leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent
appears to be spreading across the southern Rockies into far west
TX, per moistening observed at mid levels in water vapor imagery.
Scattered showers are now developing across the southern High Plains
in response, and these showers should eventually deepen sufficiently
for lightning. Much of this activity will develop atop sub-freezing
boundary-layer temperatures and significant icing may ultimately be
noted along the aforementioned corridor.
Farther southeast across the Gulf Coast region, a strong mid-level
Bermuda high will forcing deep southerly trajectories across the
Gulf Basin ahead of Hurricane Zeta. While Zeta will not reach the
central Gulf Coast during the day1 period, moisture will begin to
spread inland such that isolated thunderstorms will be possible,
despite the poor low-level lapse rates and overall weak buoyancy.
..Darrow.. 10/27/2020
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 05:44:24 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night over parts of the central Gulf Coast states
in association with Zeta.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Tropical cyclone Zeta will approach the coast and subsequently move
inland during the period.The influx of a tropical airmass
(characterized by mid 70s surface dewpoints) will gradually spread
inland over southeast LA and the immediate coastal areas of MS/AL/FL
Panhandle during the day.Forecast soundings show hodographs
enlarging initially over southeast LA and later along the MS/AL/FL
Panhandle coasts by late afternoon.Sufficient buoyancy and
enlarged hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-600 m2/s2) will probably yield
the development of several mini supercells in the outer bands of
Zeta.It appears the greatest tornado risk will be confined to far
southern AL and the FL Panhandle where larger CAPE (500-1000 J/kg)
and SRH will spatiotemporally overlap.Considerable uncertainty
remains how far inland a low/conditional supercell-tornado risk will
develop late overnight (i.e., east-central AL and adjacent parts of
GA).
..Smith.. 10/27/2020
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 05:46:06 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday morning for
adjacent parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle in
association with tropical cyclone Zeta.An isolated threat for
damaging thunderstorm gusts may develop over the Carolinas and
southern Virginia Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
A fairly complex scenario with relative higher uncertainty is
forecast for the day 3 period over the Southeast into the Carolinas
and VA.Tropical cyclone Zeta will move from the AL/GA vicinity
west of Atlanta and accelerate rapidly northeastward reaching
Chesapeake Bay by early Thursday evening according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast.The risk for a tornado may
linger during the morning from parts of the FL Panhandle
northeastward into central GA before low-level flow veers as Zeta
becomes increasingly displaced from the region.Only marginal
instability is expected to penetrate the areas north of the
immediate coastal counties with less-available instability farther
north into southwest GA.Nonetheless, a conditional risk for a
supercell or two capable of a tornado could continue from the late
Day 2 period into Day 3 across this region.
By early evening, a mid-level low will open and feature a
strengthening jet (100 kt at 500 mb) moving from northern AL
northeastward across the Carolinas into southeast VA by early Friday
morning.Significant mid-level height falls (120-180 m at 500 mb)
will overspread central NC Thursday night.Concurrently, a cold
front is forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Appalachians
with intensifying frontal forcing in lee of the higher terrain.
Model guidance currently indicates a moist boundary layer will
become conditionally unstable with a cluster or band of storms
potentially developing after dark.The transport of higher momentum
aloft to the surface could materialize with a risk for damaging
gusts.
..Smith.. 10/27/2020
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 07:11:25 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A quiescent period for severe thunderstorms will begin on Friday
(day 4) and continue through next Tuesday (day 8) as the large-scale
upper-air pattern features a mean trough over the eastern U.S. for
much of the extended period.Dry offshore flow will occur over the
Gulf of Mexico through the period and lead to hostile conditions for
thunderstorm development.
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 08:35:19 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...
...Synopsis...
Persistent surface ridging across a large part of the Intermountain
West/Great Basin and surface troughing from the California coast
southeastward through Baja California and the Lower Colorado River
Valley will continue to foster elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions in several areas across California, Nevada, and Arizona.
Models do indicate that the gradient between these two synoptic
features will slacken over the course of the forecast period and
reduce surface wind speeds especially in northern California.
...Northern/central California...
Over the course of the day, surface heating/vertical mixing and the
existing pressure gradient across the area will once again increase
wind speeds into the 20-35 mph range, with higher gusts (to 60 mph)
expected in typical terrain-favored areas.The residing airmass is
dry and will remain so throughout the period, with critically low RH
values through the day (5-15%) and poor overnight recoveries.
Elevated to critical fire weather remains likely - with critical
highlights tied to areas of strongest surface winds.
...Southern California...
The aforementioned offshore gradient will continue to maintain a
very dry airmass across much of the region, with very poor overnight
recovery resulting in critically low RH (5-15%) even at the start of
the forecast period (12Z Tue).These dry conditions will persist
throughout the day as temperatures warm into the 70s and low 80s F.
Meanwhile, 25-35 mph northeasterly surface winds will develop
through the day, with gusts perhaps exceeding 60 mph especially in
terrain-favored areas.Fuels remain dry across the region and
support of fire spread.Elevated and critical delineations remain
in place to address the aforementioned scenario.
...Lower Colorado River Valley...
Latest models (and particularly high-resolution guidance) depict
areas of gusty northerly winds in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado
River that will strengthen into the 20-25 mph range with higher
gusts.These winds will occur within a dry airmass, with widespread
single-digit RH values expected during the afternoon as temperatures
rise into the 70s and 80s F.Dry fuel beds will potentially carry
large fires.Thus, the critical delineation has been added.
..Cook.. 10/27/2020
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 06:08:31 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Although many areas in the West (particularly California, Nevada,
and Arizona) will remain very dry, surface winds will slacken in
many areas as Great Basin high pressure weakens and shifts to the
east of that region.Additionally, mid/upper flow will slacken as
an evolving cutoff low moves away toward the southern High Plains.
Enough surface flow will remain across coastal ranges of southern
California to introduce highlights for elevated fire weather in that
area.Elsewhere, a cold and unsettled pattern (particularly across
the southern Plains/Rockies) will keep any fire-weather concerns at
a minimum.
...Southern California...
Recent high-resolution guidance indicates that areas of 15-25 mph
surface flow will linger especially in terrain-favored areas of the
coastal ranges through the forecast period.The offshore nature of
the flow will maintain dry low-level conditions (5-15% RH).Areas
of dry fuels remain given the antecedent dry conditions through much
of summer.These conditions merit an elevated fire-weather
delineation.
..Cook.. 10/27/2020
Read more
Tue, 27 Oct 2020 06:10:30 +0000
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