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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.10.20 14:10z 193 Lines 8435 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38594_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<YT7MPB<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201028/1400Z 38594@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 09:45:03 +0000
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 09:45:03 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 28 09:45:03 UTC 2020.
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 09:44:28 +0000
MD 1764 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Areas affected...Northeast TX Panhandle...Eastern OK
Panhandle...Western OK
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 280906Z - 281300Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain will continue to spread eastward from the
eastern TX/OK Panhandles into western OK over the next few hours.
Precipitation rates from 0.05 to 0.15"/hr are possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the freezing line from
just northwest of SWW in the TX Big Country north to HHF in the
northeast TX Panhandle. The line then arcs southeastward to HBR in
southeast OK, continuing northeastward to near END before arcing
back northwestward into southeast KS. The trend over the past two
hours has been for temperatures to warm a degree or two as the band
of precipitation (currently extending across the eastern TX
Panhandle into the TX Big Country) while areas in western OK have
remained steady. Given these trends and current temperatures,
freezing rain will likely continue to be the predominant
precipitation type within the band moving across the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles into western OK.
High reflectivity returns within this band are evidence of the
melting occurring within the warm nose located between roughly 3000
and 6000 ft. Lightning has been sparse within the precipitation band
over the past hour, but some modest elevated instability exists
downstream over western OK so a few isolated lightning flashes
remain possible. Precipitation rates from 0.05 to 0.15"/hr are
possible. Northeast TX Panhandle sites at BPC and HHF reported 0.09"
and 0.06", respectively, of liquid precipitation during the last
hour.
..Mosier.. 10/28/2020
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON35740121 36870115 37250023 37119942 36599875 36319850
35949836 35569847 34949908 34529977 34370032 34530096
35740121
Read more
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 09:07:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TC ZETA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected later today through the overnight over
parts of the central Gulf Coast states in association with Zeta.
...TC Zeta...
TC Zeta will be the primary focus for concern regarding the
potential for tornado development later today. Early this morning,
Zeta was located over the central Gulf basin and moving quickly
northwest. However, it should begin curving northeast shortly then
move onshore over southeast LA by early evening. Mid 70s surface dew
points have already advanced inland across the central/eastern Gulf
Coast region which has contributed to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at times. While weak convection will likely continue
well ahead of Zeta due to modest buoyancy, low-level shear is not
particularly strong at this time, and most storms will pose little
appreciable threat in generating tornadoes. However, wind profiles
will become increasingly favorable for supercells by early evening,
along with some tornado threat. Will maintain SLGT Risk for
tornadoes east of Zeta's expected landfall into the FL Panhandle.
Have made minor adjustments to the MRGL Risk later in the period to
reflect low-topped supercell threat immediately ahead of the remnant
low center as it tracks toward northwest GA.
..Darrow/Cook.. 10/28/2020
Read more
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 05:39:45 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday from the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia in association with tropical cyclone
Zeta.An isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm gusts and
possibly a tornado is forecast over the Carolinas and southern
Virginia mainly Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
Tropical cyclone Zeta is forecast to rapidly move from the southern
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day according to
the latest National Hurricane Center forecast.A tropical
cyclone-related tornado risk may continue from the late Day 1 period
(pre-dawn hours Thursday morning) into midday Thursday across parts
of the FL Panhandle northeastward into southern GA.A supercell
wind profile and the access to very rich low-level moisture (mid 70s
surface dewpoints) will conditionally support a risk for storm
rotation.The latest convection-allowing model guidance indicates
cellular convection within FL Panhandle-southern GA corridor.If
uncertainty decreases, a mesoscale upgrade to 5-percent tornado
probabilities could occur in later outlooks.
Farther north across the Carolinas, models indicate scant
instability during the day due to widespread clouds/rain in
association with Zeta.Although a rotating thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out, it appears the greater conditional risk for
severe will begin early evening over the western Carolinas.The
intense mid-level trough and associated speed max will overspread
the Carolinas.Models suggest a surface low develops near the VA/NC
border as large-scale ascent and a sharp cold front push east of the
higher terrain.Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible and a wind/tornado threat may develop and spread east
across the Carolinas and southern VA.Exact details regarding the
overnight scenario are quite uncertain at this time and will be
continually re-evaluated in later outlooks.
..Smith.. 10/28/2020
Read more
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 05:48:26 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic
states early Friday morning with weak mid-level ridging over the
central U.S. ahead of an amplifying trough over the northwestern
CONUS.In the low levels, a cold front will push southeastward
through the southern part of the FL Peninsula and into the FL
Straits during the morning.A few showers and a thunderstorm or two
are possible in south FL.Tranquil conditions will prevail across a
large part of the Lower 48 states on Friday through Friday night.
..Smith.. 10/28/2020
Read more
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 06:49:42 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement in depicting a large-scale trough
to develop over the Midwest on Saturday, and subsequently over the
lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday through Monday.A ridge is
forecast to develop over the central U.S. in wake of the departing
eastern U.S. trough by Tuesday with a low-amplitude pattern
beginning by the end of the extended period.Dry/stable conditions
in the low levels will exist across much of the CONUS as a result of
the upcoming pattern and result in very low to nil
severe-thunderstorm potential.
Read more
Wed, 28 Oct 2020 07:15:35 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
I can feel for her because, although I have never been an Alaskan
prostitute dancing on the bar in a spangled dress, I still get very
bored with washing and ironing and dishwashing and cooking day after
relentless day.
-- Betty MacDonald
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