| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 29.10.20 14:03z 272 Lines 10545 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38846_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201029/1400Z 38846@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 09:40:03 +0000
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 09:40:03 +0000
general
1
WW 503 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 290435Z - 291000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1135
PM until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Hurricane Zeta is tracking rapidly northeastward across
central Alabama.Isolated small thunderstorms in the southeast
quadrant of the system will pose a risk of a tornado or two
overnight tonight across the watch area.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Panama City
FL to 10 miles north northeast of Columbus GA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 20050.
...Hart
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 08:36:02 +0000
WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE PNS
TO 20 NE CSG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
..MOSIER..10/29/20
ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 503
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC067-069-290940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENRY HOUSTON
FLC005-013-045-063-133-290940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYCALHOUN GULF
JACKSONWASHINGTON
GAC007-037-053-061-095-099-177-193-197-201-239-243-249-253-259-
261-263-269-273-307-290940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 08:36:03 +0000
MD 1771 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 503... FOR CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle...Southwest GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 503...
Valid 290916Z - 291115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 503 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes is forecast to extend past 10Z
and Tornado Watch 503 will be extended in time and area to cover the
continuing threat.
DISCUSSION...A gradual updraft deepening trend has been noted over
the past hour or so within the confluence band extending from about
35 miles northwest of ABY (in far southwest GA) through ECP (in
south-central FL Panhandle) and offshore. Low-topped supercell
within this band in Bay County FL recently produced a small velocity
couplet before dissipating, and lightning has recently been observed
near the AL/GA/FL border intersection.
Given these radar trends and persistence of a very supportive
kinematic environment for at least the next several hours, the
tornado threat is forecast to extend past the 10Z expiration time of
Tornado Watch 503. Per coordination with WFO TAE, Tornado Watch 503
will be extended in both area and time across portions of southwest
GA and the FL Panhandle.
..Mosier.. 10/29/2020
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON31198525 32138449 32158385 31748358 30158419 29608508
29778608 31198525
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 09:17:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist
Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern
Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta.
...TC Zeta...
Remnants of TC Zeta are lifting quickly northeast across central AL
early this morning. Zeta will eject across the southern Appalachians
into VA by 18z, then off the Middle Atlantic Coast by early evening.
70s surface dew points have spread inland across most of GA and
coastal SC and this air mass will provide at least weak buoyancy
supporting convection within a strongly sheared environment. While
lightning will not be that common with this convection, deeper
updrafts should attain heights necessary for a few flashes. Forecast
soundings characteristically exhibit poor lapse rates, but very
moist profiles should contribute to low-topped supercells across the
risk area. Earlier thoughts regarding the overall severe threat
remain -- primarily the possibility for a few brief weak tornadoes,
and perhaps some gusty winds with the most organized convection.
..Darrow/Cook.. 10/29/2020
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 05:49:31 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move from the Mid-Atlantic states
into the western Atlantic Friday morning while an upstream
disturbance quickly moves from Washington into the Dakotas during
the period.In the low levels, a cold front over the southern FL
Peninsula will push into the FL Straits.A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon over south FL but
strong storms are not expected.
..Smith.. 10/29/2020
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 05:54:59 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes on Saturday into Saturday night.A recent cold
front intrusion into the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will
yield a setup hostile to thunderstorm formation, except near the FL
Everglades where an isolated afternoon storm may develop.
Elsewhere, relatively dry/stable conditions will exist.
..Smith.. 10/29/2020
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 05:59:06 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in showing the
development of a large-scale mid-level trough over the eastern U.S.
on Sunday (day 4) before exiting the East Coast into the western
Atlantic on Monday (day 5).A low-amplitude/zonal-flow pattern will
subsequently overspread and influence conditions across much of the
Lower 48 on Tuesday (day 6).Models vary considerably by late in
the extended period regarding the upper-level pattern.In summary,
a low-potential severe highlight will characterize the extended
period.
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 08:14:10 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Across the west, a weakening surface pressure gradient will exist in
response to weakening/eastward movement of a surface high over the
central Rockies.This will result in weak offshore flow across much
of the West (especially in terrain-favored areas of California).A
few areas may experience breezy conditions approaching 15 mph during
the day, though these winds should be localized enough to preclude
any highlights.Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
expected in these areas - particularly as 5-15% RH values develop
amidst dry fuels.
Elsewhere, recent precipitation and moist/unsettled conditions will
preclude development of large-scale fire-weather concerns.
..Cook.. 10/29/2020
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 06:21:41 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will amplify dramatically across the Northwest during
the D2/Fri forecast period as a wave sharpens over the region.
Vertical mixing processes will aid in amplifying low-level flow
amidst a relatively dry airmass across that region, fostering
elevated to locally critical conditions.
Elsewhere across the country, a modest surface pressure gradient
over the Southwest will limit fire-weather concerns due to weak
flow.Recent precipitation across the High Plains will also limit
fire-weather concerns in that area despite lee troughing becoming
established.
...Southeastern Oregon into far southwestern Montana...
An axis of enhanced low-level flow (around 15-25 mph) will become
established across this region from midday onward due to the
aforementioned increase in flow at all levels.The flow will occur
amidst a very dry low-level airmass, with RH values falling into the
10-15% range during the afternoon.Though a substantial amount of
snow was recorded across northern Idaho/western Montana over the
past few days, precipitation analyses indicate that the region
remained largely precipitation-free, and fuels may support fire
spread.Given the aforementioned conditions, an elevated
fire-weather delineation has been added to the outlook.
..Cook.. 10/29/2020
Read more
Thu, 29 Oct 2020 06:25:25 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
A LISP programmer knows the value of everything, but the cost of
nothing.
-- Alan Perlis
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
