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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.10.20 19:00z 188 Lines 8022 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39054_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31 10
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201031/1844Z 39054@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
WIN10 - CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 09:37:03 +0000
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 09:37:03 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 31 09:37:03 UTC 2020.
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 09:36:27 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 31 09:37:03 UTC 2020.
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 09:36:19 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern North
Carolina and far southeast Virginia on Sunday.
...NC northward to southeast coastal NJ...
An intense and amplifying mid-level trough will evolve into a closed
500 mb low as it moves from the Great Lakes on Sunday morning to the
Northeast by early Monday morning.In the low levels, a surface low
initially over northeast Ontario will consolidate with a surface low
developing off the NJ coast and a strong surface cyclone is forecast
over the Gulf of Maine/coastal Maine late Sunday night.
During the morning to midday hours, the strengthening surface trough
over the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in intensifying low-level flow
and the northward transport of mid-upper 50s F dewpoints into the
Delmarva and lower 60s in eastern NC.Strong differential advection
via cooling aloft in the mid levels and moistening in the low
levels, will result in a destabilizing boundary layer by early
afternoon.Operational suite of models are generally showing the
development of 500 J/kg SBCAPE over eastern NC with 100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE as far north as the southern half of NJ.Forecast soundings
show very strong low-level shear and enlarged hodographs over the
narrow warm sector near the immediate coast.Strong mid-level
height falls (90-150 m per 12 hr) are expected to overspread the
VA/NC warm sector during the day.Given the above mentioned
factors, it seems plausible a forced convective line will evolve
over the Mid-Atlantic states.The risk for isolated strong to
severe gusts may accompany this convective line before moving off
the coast by early evening.Farther south over eastern NC, a
supercell threat could evolve near the immediate coast with an
attendant isolated wind/tornado hazard.
Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will generally prevail across much
of the remainder of the contiguous United States.
..Smith.. 10/31/2020
Read more
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 06:05:38 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous
United States on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A long-wave mid-level trough will exit the East Coast into the
western Atlantic as a ridge builds over the High Plains.Surface
high pressure centered over the lower MS Valley will lead to
tranquil conditions for a large part of the area east of the
Rockies.Models show a weak mid-level trough over southern CA.A
few high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop
over southern NV and perhaps the far southern Sierra Nevada.
However, the thunderstorm risk appears too negligible to warrant an
areal thunderstorm highlight at this time.
..Smith.. 10/31/2020
Read more
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 07:00:42 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The extended range forecast will feature a changing pattern from
zonal flow during the midweek period followed by an amplifying
large-scale trough over the West Coast towards the end of next week.
Relatively dry/stable conditions will prevail across much of the
contiguous United States and result in very low severe weather
potential for the entire extended period.
Read more
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 07:26:10 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify over much of the
central/eastern CONUS later today into Sunday morning. Further west,
a much weaker upper trough is expected to drift northward off of the
coast of Baja California. At the surface, a ridge will settle into
the Great Basin, resulting in the development of a weak offshore
flow regime over southern CA.
...Southern California...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop as offshore
flow becomes established across southern CA, especially late tonight
into Sunday morning across the peninsular and transverse ranges and
nearby foothills/valleys. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher
gusts) will be possible as RH values drop below 15% with poor
overnight recovery. Locally critical conditions may develop across
terrain-favored regions where somewhat stronger winds will be
possible.
..Dean.. 10/31/2020
Read more
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 06:29:29 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS at
the start of the period Sunday morning will shift eastward during
the day. In the wake of the trough, a weak upper ridge will become
established across the Intermountain West, while a weak upper trough
is forecast to slowly drift northward toward southern CA by Monday
morning. At the surface, a sprawling ridge is forecast to cover much
of the central/western CONUS, maintaining weak offshore flow across
southern CA into at least Monday morning.
...Southern California...
Elevated fire weather conditions may be ongoing Sunday morning
across portions of the peninsular and transverse ranges and adjacent
foothills/valleys. Winds may tend to weaken somewhat during the day,
though RH will remain critical after poor overnight recovery. Winds
may intensify somewhat again Sunday night into Monday morning,
leading to another period of elevated conditions over the same
general region.
...Portions of central/southern Arizona...
An increase in low-level easterly flow within a relatively warm/dry
regime will result in the potential for at least locally elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of central/southern AZ on
Sunday. Sustained winds will likely increase into the 15-20 mph
range (with higher gusts), though a slight weakening of the pressure
gradient and surface wind speeds will be possible prior to peak
heating and the time of maximum RH reduction. If confidence in a
sufficient duration of stronger wind speeds increases, an elevated
delineation may eventually be needed for some portion of this
region.
..Dean.. 10/31/2020
Read more
Sat, 31 Oct 2020 06:32:30 +0000
+---------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS 10 ISE -----------------------+
One day the King decided that he would force all his subjects to tell
the truth. A gallows was erected in front of the city gates. A herald
announced, "Whoever would enter the city must first answer the truth to
a question which will be put to him." Nasrudin was first in line. The
captain of the guard asked him, "Where are you going? Tell the truth
-- the alternative is death by hanging."
"I am going," said Nasrudin, "to be hanged on that gallows."
"I don't believe you."
"Very well, if I have told a lie, then hang me!"
"But that would make it the truth!"
"Exactly," said Nasrudin, "your truth."
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