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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.11.20 17:17z 120 Lines 6544 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39589_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201104/1701Z 39589@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202
AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland on Friday.
...Northern California...
A strong shortwave trough will move southeast through northern CA
during the day Friday. Cold air aloft, steep lapse rates and deep
forcing for ascent accompanying this feature will contribute to
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across a
portion of northern CA during the day.
...Central through southern Florida...
A moist easterly low-level flow regime will persist across FL,
resulting in modest instability, especially in the southern half of
the state. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but given limited
convective inhibition, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will remain possible in this environment.
..Dial.. 11/04/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Saturday) Lee cyclogenesis will occur across
the central and northern High Plains, especially during the last
half of the period as a significant shortwave trough moves through
the base of a synoptic upper low and emerges over the central High
Plains late Saturday night. The northward advection of modified CP
air will commence, but boundary layer moisture and instability are
expected to remain insufficient for a threat of severe storms.
Day 5 (Sunday) Tropical cyclone Eta is forecast by the National
Hurricane Center to approach southern FL Sunday evening and might
undergo some strengthening, but predictability is not sufficient
to introduce severe probabilities at this time.
Elsewhere,in association with a shortwave trough ejecting northeast
through the central Plains, a lee cyclone will move northeast,
reaching ND during the evening with trailing cold front extending
southward through the northern and central Plains. Modified CP air
will continue advecting northward through pre-frontal warm sector
contributing to weak instability over the northern Plains and upper
MS Valley region. Thunderstorms might develop along this front within
a strongly sheared environment from the eastern Dakotas into MN by
evening. However, the anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment
could remain a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat.
Day 6 (Monday) Some threat for strong to severe storms might exist as
storms develop along a cold front from the Midwest into the central
Plains. Some severe threat might also persist across FL depending on
track and magnitude of a tropical cyclone associated with remnants
of Eta. In both of these scenarios, predictability and confidence
in a more substantial severe threat remain low at this time.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... Zonal flow will dominate across the Lower 48
today, with an absence of significant disturbances and much of the
stronger flow aloft confined to the northern tier of the CONUS.
Meanwhile at the surface, weak surface troughing will exist from
Minnesota south-southwestward through the central High Plains.
A broad anticyclone over the western Atlantic will maintain southerly
flow and warm advection across much of the center of the country.
Another surface high centered over the central Rockies will aid
in fostering a weak offshore pressure gradient across dry areas of
southern California.
...Northern Plains... Vertical mixing processes amid surface heating
will increase surface flow during the forecast period, with areas
of 15-25 mph surface wind speeds becoming common. Models indicate
some mid and high-level cloudiness that may temper mixing, however.
This will result in only borderline RH values (around 20-30%)
during the afternoon for any appreciable fire-weather threat.
Nevertheless, dry fine fuels will likely carry any fires that develop
amidst the breezy conditions. Abnormally warm surface temperatures
(approaching 70F) will also contribute to elevated fire-weather.
...Southern California... The aforementioned offshore pressure
gradient will aid in localized areas of 20-40 mph surface winds
- particularly in terrain-favored mountains and valleys. These
locally-strong surface wind gusts will combined with an already
dry airmass characterized by 85-95 surface temperatures and 7-15%
RH values during the afternoon. Elevated fire-weather conditions
will exist where fuels are dry.
..Cook.. 11/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns across the forecast period
will likely be tied to a lingering offshore pressure gradient in the
Southwest due to a surface high over the Great Basin. The airmass
across the region will remain hot and dry, and portions of the
region have gone without appreciable precipitation over the past
several months, contributing to dry fuels.
...Southern California... Offshore (northeasterly) surface winds
will continue amid the ongoing pressure pattern, with localized
areas of 20-40 mph occurring in terrain-favored areas throughout
the forecast period. Again, these surface winds will occur within a
pre-existing dry airmass across the region, with minimum RH values
expected to fall into the 5-15% range during peak heating hours.
Dry fuels will promote fire spread in the region. An elevated
delineation is in place to address the threat.
..Cook.. 11/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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