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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.11.20 16:17z 162 Lines 8969 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39656_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KC9VYU<
N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201105/1600Z 39656@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland on Friday.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move eastward across the
Mississippi Valley on Friday as a shortwave trough moves across the
eastern Seaboard. A moist airmass will be in place across the eastern
Gulf Coast States and eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop during the day as instability increases. However, a severe
threat is not expected because instability will remain weak. In the
western U.S., an upper-level trough will approach the West Coast
on Friday. A few lightning strikes could occur along the California
coast but again, no severe threat is expected.
..Broyles.. 11/05/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States on Saturday.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Intermountain West on Saturday as south-southwesterly mid-level flow
persists in the Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in
the southern and central Rockies Saturday afternoon as temperatures
warm at the higher elevations. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible on Saturday across a moist airmass located from the lower
Mississippi Valley to the eastern Carolinas. Due to weak instability,
no severe threat is expected to develop in the continental United
States on Saturday or Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 11/05/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5... The
medium-range models have a large upper-level low pressure system
in the western U.S. on Sunday, with southwest mid-level flow across
the central U.S. This general pattern is forecast to gradually shift
eastward on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place for
both Sunday and Monday across the Southeast. Although thunderstorms
could develop in the Southeast in areas that heat up the most,
a severe threat is not expected due to weak instability.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... On Tuesday, the models
quickly eject the upper-level system northeastward out of the
Rockies and into the central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of the system Tuesday afternoon and evening along a front
which is forecast to be located in the mid Mississippi Valley by
00Z Wednesday. Instability could be strong enough for a marginal or
isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the models
move the upper-level system across the Great Lakes. If the timing
of the system is correct, then a potential for thunderstorms may
develop along parts of the eastern Seaboard. Instability is forecast
to be weak along the east coast on Wednesday which should minimize
any severe potential. On Thursday, the models move an upper-level
trough quickly eastward across the Rockies. While some moisture
return could occur in the southern Plains ahead of the system,
instability is again forecast to be weak. This would minimize any
severe threat ahead of the system.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... A largely zonal flow pattern aloft will gradually
undergo more amplification through the forecast period as a
substantial trough digs southeastward toward northern California.
This trough will amplify mid/upper flow over the northern Rockies
and eventually along the Pacific Northwest coast.
At the surface, a weak trough will migrate eastward across Montana,
while another surface low organizes across southeastern Oregon
late in the forecast period. A strong high will remain centered
over Colorado, and another trough will remain positioned from Baja
California northwestward along the California coast.
...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient in place
early in the forecast period will allow for areas of 15-25 mph
northeasterly winds (perhaps gusting to 40 mph in terrain-favored
areas) to persist especially in the morning hours across portions
of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties and surrounding
areas. These winds will occur within a dry airmass exhibiting poor
prior overnight recovery, with RH values dropping below 15% areawide.
These conditions may exist on a localized basis across San Diego
county mountains as well. Offshore flow should subside a bit through
the day due to cyclogenesis/weakening of the pressure gradient.
...Northeastern Idaho into southern Montana... Models indicate
that a band of breezy conditions will develop due to a passing
surface trough and attendant pressure gradient. Surface winds may
exceed 20 mph at times during peak heating hours, where RH values
are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. Where fuels are dry,
elevated fire-weather conditions are expected.
...Far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeastern Arizona...
Although surface wind trajectories would typically favor boundary
layer moist advection, most of the deeper moisture is expected
to remain well east of the region. The strong surface pressure
gradient between the Colorado high and Baja California low will
aid in development of 15-25 mph easterly surface winds, while
insolation/heating fosters critically low RH (ranging from 5-15%).
These conditions will occur atop dry fuels, necessitating elevated
highlights.
..Cook.. 11/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis... The mid/upper pattern will undergo a dramatic
shift as a substantial mid-level trough amplifies across the
western tier of the CONUS. This amplifying trough will spread
strong mid-level flow atop dry areas of the West that still have
relatively high ERCs/dry fuels, favoring fire-weather potential.
Some of this potential will also exist across the central/northern
Plains during peak heating as a surface low/trough organizes from
the western Dakotas through eastern Colorado.
...Much of the western Great Basin and Lower Colorado River
Valley... Vertical mixing beneath amplifying flow aloft and a
steepening pressure gradient will result in several areas of windy
conditions during peak heating hours. Current indications are
that southerly winds will exceed 30-35 mph at times from portions
of central Nevada into western Utah. These winds will combine
with very low RH - lowest across central Nevada where 5% values
are possible. Farther east, models indicate that RH values may
be slightly higher and only flirt with critical thresholds (i.e.,
around 15%). Nevertheless the strong winds and dry fuels both
necessitate conversion of 70% probabilities to critical fire-weather
delineations across a broad portion of the western Great Basin.
Elevated fire-weather conditions may be observed as far north as
southern Idaho and also across parts of northern Arizona where
slightly higher RH/boundary layer moisture may exist.
...Northeastern New Mexico through Nebraska and far southeastern
South Dakota... The aforementioned lee trough/cyclone across eastern
Colorado and vicinity will aid in strengthening southerly flow
across much of the region, with areas of 20+ mph wind speeds from
northeastern New Mexico to western Kansas and also from north-central
Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. These breezy conditions
will occur with a dry airmass consisting of 12-25% RH values.
Dry/cured finer fuels will support elevated to locally critical
fire-weather in much of the area. Deeper boundary layer moisture
will arrive into the region after dark, which will help with
overnight recoveries.
..Cook.. 11/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Anthony's Law of Force:
Don't force it; get a larger hammer.
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