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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.11.20 16:07z 136 Lines 7422 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39777_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201106/1600Z 39777@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States on Saturday.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the western
U.S. on Saturday as south-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over
the Rockies and Great Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible near
the trough in southern California and ahead of the trough in the
Four Corners region. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of the Southeast. Instability in these areas will be too weak
for severe thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206
AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States on Sunday.
...DISCUSSION... A upper-level low pressure system will move slowly
across the western U.S. on Sunday as flow remains south-southwesterly
across the central states. Moisture return will take place across
the southern Plains and Arklatex as a strong low-level jet develops
in the Great Plains. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible on
the western edge of the low-level jet Sunday night from the Texas
Panhandle north-northeastward into the northern Plains and mid
Missouri Valley. Other thunderstorms will be possible across southern
sections of the Atlantic Seaboard. Instability is forecast to be
too weak in these areas for a severe threat Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward
across the Four Corners region on Monday and into the southern Plains
on Tuesday. Some moisture return is expected ahead of the approaching
system in the southern Plains, where thunderstorm development will
be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Although an isolated severe
threat will be possible in the southern Plains, weak instability
should keep any threat isolated. The potential for thunderstorm
development is forecast to continue into Tuesday evening across
the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks but weak instability is again
expected to keep any severe threat isolated.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday,
the medium-range models move the upper-level trough into the
Great Lakes and maintain southwest mid-level flow across much of
the continental United States. A moist airmass is forecast to be
in place along the eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development
will be possible on Wednesday. The models keep the airmass weakly
unstable Wednesday afternoon along most of the Eastern Seaboard
suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. On Thursday
and Friday, the models quickly move an upper-level trough across
the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes as another trough moves
into the Rockies. Although thunderstorm development will be possible
ahead of this system in parts of the Texas Coastal Plain and lower
Mississippi Valley, weak instability is again expected to keep any
severe threat marginal. Predictability is quite low during the mid
week time-frame.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is amplifying and digging
southward along the West Coast early today. At the surface, low
pressure will deepen within the Great Basin into the northern High
Plains. A front will continue southeastward into the Basin through
the period.
...Great Basin... 07Z water vapor imagery shows a diffuse
upper-level trough moving into the southern Great Basin. As
the trough off the Pacific Northwest coast strengthens and moves
southeast, dry air aloft in the wake of the initial disturbance will
accelerate northeastward. With surface observations and regional
soundings showing dry air at low levels, RH below 10% to around
20% will be possible during the afternoon. Some lingering mid and
upper-level clouds are possible especially farther north. With
mid-level winds and the surface pressure gradient on the increase
during the day, surface winds may reach 30-35 mph in some parts
of southern/central Nevada. Surrounding areas will see 15-25
mph winds. Critical fire weather is expected for portions of the
southern and central Great Basin with elevated conditions in the
nearby vicinity where RH is expected to be slightly higher.
...Northeastern New Mexico through Nebraska and far southeastern
South Dakota... A surface cyclone is expected to deepen in the
western Dakotas with a lee trough into eastern New Mexico. Low
level flow will increase in combination with a modest increase in
mid-level flow as the western trough approaches. Surface winds
of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH may near 10%, particularly in
the southern/central High Plains. Areas to the north and east are
more likely to see 15-25% RH by afternoon. Critical conditions may
occur briefly in southeastern Colorado and adjacent western Kansas
where favorable low-level winds will overlap with the drier surface
conditions. Otherwise, elevated conditions are generally expected
within the remainder of the highlighted areas.
..Wendt.. 11/06/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Southwest on
Saturday. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will develop
in the northern Rockies. A cold front will continue eastward through
the Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by the end of
the period.
...Eastern Colorado and adjacent Nebraska/Kansas... A strong
surface pressure gradient will develop during the late morning into
the afternoon. Winds just above the surface are also expected to be
relatively strong during the afternoon. These factors will contribute
to 20-30 mph winds with higher gusts in parts of the central High
Plains. Though RH may fall only to near 20%, the strong surface
winds and dry fine fuels will still bring elevated fire weather risk.
..Wendt.. 11/06/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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