| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 07.11.20 16:18z 160 Lines 8954 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39894_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201107/1600Z 39894@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0107 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
CORRECTED TO ADD SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE THIRD TO LAST SENTENCE
...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat is expected to develop
Sunday night across south Florida as Tropical Storm Eta approaches.
...South Florida... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting
Tropical Depression Eta to become a tropical storm and move northward
across Cuba on Sunday. The outer rainbands of Eta are forecast to
move northward into southern Florida near Miami by Sunday evening. As
the center of Eta approaches south Florida Sunday night, low-level
winds will steadily increase. NAM forecast soundings from 06Z to
12Z on Monday for Miami show winds near 50 kt at 1000 feet above
ground level. As a result, 0-1 km shear is forecast to increase to
near 40 kt late Sunday night which should support a marginal tornado
risk. Cells that remain semi-discrete moving inland into the Florida
Keys and south Florida will have potential to rotate. These storms
could be associated with an isolated tornado threat. For these
reasons, a marginal risk area has been added in parts of south
Florida for this outlook.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232
AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains
into the mid Missouri Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level
trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday as southwest
mid-level flow remains in place across the central U.S. At the
surface, a cold front will advance east-southeastward into the
mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. A moist airmass will be
located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints possibly reaching
the lower 60s F from eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. As weak
destabilization occurs during the day along and just ahead of the
front, thunderstorm development is expected. Thunderstorm coverage
is forecast to increase from late afternoon into the evening as
a line of storms moves eastward across western Iowa, southeast
Nebraska and central Kansas. More isolated development could occur
southward into western Oklahoma. Although strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, SBCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in
most areas. For this reason, any severe threat is expected to be
marginal. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats.
...South Florida/Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center
is forecasting Tropical Depression Eta to strengthen and become
a Tropical Storm today. The system is forecast to move northward
to near the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. At that time,
rainbands associated with Eta will likely be in the Florida Keys
and across south Florida. Forecast soundings Monday morning in
south Florida show veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km
above ground level and have strong speed shear in the boundary
layer. As a result, 0-1 km shear is forecast to be near 35 kt which
will support storm rotation with discrete cells in the rainbands of
Eta. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to move west-northwestward into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Monday suggesting any
tornado potential that develops could gradually diminish across
south Florida by Monday evening. At this time, forecast tornado
probabilities are too low to add a categorical risk area.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to quickly move northeastward from
the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along a front from the
southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley
from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. Instability is
forecast to be weak along most of the front, suggesting any severe
threat will remain isolated. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower
60s F in parts of the southern Plains where the severe threat could
be greater. However, the severe potential remains highly uncertain
due to instability concerns.
On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into
southeastern Canada and maintain southwest mid-level flow across
the central and eastern United States. A moist airmass is forecast
along the Eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development will
be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although an isolated
severe threat can not be ruled out, weak instability is expected
to keep any threat marginal Wednesday afternoon.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday,
the models move an upper-level trough from the Great Plains into the
northeastern U.S. Moisture return ahead of this system is forecast to
be minimal. Thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon in parts
of the southern Plains and along the coast of the Carolinas during
the day on Friday. But instability in these two areas should be
weak, minimizing any severe potential. No severe threat is expected
on Saturday due to limited moisture return in the southern U.S.,
but predictability is quite low at the extended ranges.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move into the
Lower Colorado River Valley today. This feature will then accelerate
northeastward into the central Plains by the end of the period. At
the surface, a deep low pressure system will develop in the northern
Rockies and propagate into the northern Plains. A cold front will
continue eastward through the interior West and reach the High
Plains by early Sunday morning.
...Eastern Colorado and neighboring Nebraska/Kansas... A strong
surface pressure gradient will develop and increase throughout
the day. Mid-level flow will also improve with the approach of the
trough. Southerly flow will reach 20-30 mph with a few locations
seeing higher speeds. RH will generally settle to near 20% by the
afternoon. Dry conditions may extend into the Nebraska Panhandle,
but the pressure gradient will be weaker and the potential for
lingering mid/high-level clouds will be higher.
..Wendt.. 11/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
accelerate northeast through southeastern Colorado into the eastern
Dakotas on Sunday. The surface low in the western Dakotas will
continue to deepen but also lift to the north and east during the
day. With the trough lifting quickly to the north/northeast, the
front within the High Plains will likely remain almost stationary
until the broader trough across the West eventually makes eastward
progress.
...Southern/Central High Plains... Strong surface winds will be
present at the start of the period, though RH in most locations will
remain above critical thresholds. The surface pressure gradient
will decrease as temperatures warm into the afternoon. However,
areas of 15-25% RH will overlap with 15-25 mph winds for a few
hours. The driest conditions appear likely to occur in portions of
northeastern Colorado where a stronger downslope component of the
wind will exist. Winds of 25-35 mph are possible in southeastern
Colorado and adjacent New Mexico, but RH may struggle to fall to
even 25%. Despite this mitigating factor, elevated fire weather
concerns are still possible given the strength of the winds and
fine fuels remaining dry.
..Wendt.. 11/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of.
-- Ogden Nash
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
