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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.11.20 16:30z 195 Lines 11214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40057_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<SV1CMG<SV1CMG<ZL2BAU<EI2GYB<
N9LCF<W9GM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201108/1600Z 40057@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS AND IN VICINITY OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains
into the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal tornado threat will be
possible early in the period across south Florida and the Florida
Keys.
...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks... An upper-level trough will dig
southeastward into the Four Corners region on Monday as southwest
mid-level flow remains established across the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance quickly
southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains on
Monday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection will take place as
surface dewpoints gradually increase into the upper 50s and lower
60s F from west-central Oklahoma northeastward into north-central
Missouri. In spite of the moisture, instability will remain weak
ahead of the front due to abundant cloud cover and cool surface
temperatures. For this reason, convective initiation is expected
to hold off until evening when a band of strong large-scale ascent
approaches from the west. Thunderstorm development is expected to
take place during the mid to late evening from northwest Missouri
southwestward into central and western Oklahoma. NAM forecast
soundings from 06Z to 09Z Tuesday from Wichita, KS to Clinton,
OK have MUCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg range with 60 to 70
kt of deep-layer shear. This combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates may be enough for marginal hail threat. A few strong wind
gusts can not be ruled out as well. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and just ahead of the front, moving eastward into
eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri during the late night period.
...South Florida and the Florida Keys... The National Hurricane
Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Eta to be located over the
Florida Keys at daybreak on Monday and then to move westward into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day. Rainbands associated with Eta
should be located across south Florida Monday morning. Model forecast
suggest that a band of strong low-level winds will exist across the
Florida Keys around 12Z on Monday. Forecast soundings at that time
at Key Biscayne have 0-1 km shear from 30 to 35 kt with MUCAPE near
1200 J/kg. This should be adequate for a tornado threat mainly from
12Z to 18Z, before low-level shear begins to weaken across south
Florida. Rotating cells that remain semi-discrete will have tornado
potential, but the threat is expected to remain very isolated.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222
AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains
and Ozarks northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as a cold front
advances eastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints likely
reaching the lower 60s F across a large parts of the Ozarks and
mid Mississippi Valley. At the start of the period, thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing from central Oklahoma northeastward
into northern Missouri. The models suggest that the line will move
east-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi
Valley during the day. Instability is forecast to peak around
midday, when some solutions have SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 800
J/kg range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 80
kt should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The stronger
cells embedded in the line could produce strong wind gusts. Hail
will be possible with cells that form in areas that destabilize
the most. Due to abundant cloud cover and relatively cool surface
temperatures, instability is expected to remain weak, keeping any
severe threat that develops marginal.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across
the Great Plains on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
over much of the eastern half of the United States. At the surface,
a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Appalachian
Mountains. A moist airmass should be in place along much of the
Eastern Seaboard, where thunderstorm development will be possible
from parts of southeastern New York southward into the Carolinas. In
spite of the moisture, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead
of the front. Although a few marginally severe storms may develop,
the weak instability should keep any severe threat very isolated.
On Thursday, the front is forecast to move to the coast of the
Carolinas. Low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the front
across parts of the Carolinas and southeastern Georgia. Although
instability should remain weak ahead of the front, a marginal severe
threat can not be ruled out along the immediate coast from Georgia
northeastward to eastern North Carolina.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the medium-range
models move a shortwave trough across the southern Rockies
and suggest moisture will return on the Texas Coastal
Plain. Thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon along the
western edge of this moist airmass in the Texas Hill Country.
Convective coverage may expand northeastward across parts of
the southern Plains as moisture return takes place Friday night.
However, instability along the moist axis is expected to remain weak,
keeping any severe threat marginal.
On Saturday and Sunday, model solutions sharply diverge. Some
solutions move an upper-level trough into the southern Plains while
others move an upper-level trough northeastward into the Great Lakes
region. The models do suggest a moist airmass will be in place
from parts of east Texas eastward across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms that form each day across this moist airmass should
have a potential for a isolated severe threat. However, weak
instability is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis... A potent shortwave across central Colorado
will accelerate northeastward into the northern Plains by the
afternoon. With broad troughing remaining in the West, a belt of
strong southwesterly mid-level winds will exist from the Four Corners
into the central Plains. At the surface, a strong surface low in
the western Dakotas will follow a similar northeastward path along
with its parent shortwave trough. Strong lee troughing during the
early morning hours will weaken and give way to a modest surface
low in eastern Colorado by the late afternoon. A cold front will
become nearly stationary along the eastern edge of the High Plains.
...Southern/Central High Plains... Another day of strong surface
winds is expected behind the cold front. While post-frontal
temperatures should be a bit cooler, downslope flow will warm and
dry some areas sufficiently to support a fire weather threat. There
will be a bit of a mismatch between the strongest winds and lowest
RH with the pressure gradient weakening through the day. Should
locally critical conditions develop, they would briefly occur in
portions of northeast Colorado where a greater downslope component
of the wind will exist in combination with the mid-level jet core
aloft. Winds will start the period 25-35 mph with RH approaching 15%
by late morning.
Stronger winds are expected to last into the afternoon from
northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Kansas. Winds could
initially be 30-40 mph before relaxing to 25-35 mph by the
afternoon. The primary uncertainty in this region will be how low RH
will fall. RH falling to near 20% still appears probable for most
locations, though uncertainty increases with southeastward extent.
Strong winds should still promote elevated fire weather risk with
fine fuels remaining dry.
...Sacramento Valley... With high pressure moving into the region
behind the cold front and enhanced mid-level winds remaining
northerly, locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur
during the afternoon. Fuels remain dry and most precipitation will
miss the Valley overnight Saturday. Winds will likely reach 15-25
mph. Cooler temperatures will keep RH near 20-25% in most places
and limit the threat spatially. No highlights will be added.
..Wendt.. 11/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... As the broad western trough shifts eastward,
mid-level flow will increase across portions of the Southwest. A
surface low will deepen in the Panhandles region during the day. By
late afternoon/early evening, colder air will push into the southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains... The combination of a deepening surface
low and strong mid-level winds will lead to a narrow corridor of
elevated fire weather concerns from far northeastern New Mexico into
southwest Kansas. Strong southwesterly winds will develop behind
the initial cold front with 25-35 mph sustained winds possible. As
with previous days, RH will be the main question. However, it seems
plausible that RH near 20% will occur just ahead of the secondary
cold front moving southward. Locally elevated conditions are possible
outside the highlighted area, but uncertainty with respect to RH
is simply too high to add highlights in surrounding areas.
..Wendt.. 11/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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