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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.11.20 16:22z 172 Lines 9436 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40121_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<SV1CMG<SV1CMG<ZL2BAU<
GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201109/1600Z 40121@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
...SUMMARY... A tornado risk will exist across South Florida and
the Florida Keys this morning. A few thunderstorms capable of hail
and strong wind gusts will be possible across the south-central
Plains this evening into the overnight.
...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Eta
calls for some modest intensification during the early morning hours
in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. The center of Eta is expected to
be just west of Key West by 12z this morning. Nevertheless, a strong
low-level wind field will remain over the southern FL Peninsula and
Keys for several hours during the morning, maintaining sufficient 0-1
km SRH and low level shear for transient rotating cells. A risk for
a couple of tornadoes will likely be confined to the morning hours,
before a gradual lessening of the threat occurs with time into the
afternoon hours as Eta drifts westward.
...South-Central Plains Vicinity...
A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning
will develop eastward to western portions of the Great Plains by
Tuesday morning. Strong southerly low level flow will overspread
the southern/central Plains today, transporting modest moisture
northward across OK, eastern KS and portions of the Mid/Upper
MS Valley. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will drop southeast
across the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a dryline
extends southward from the western OK/TX border into western
TX. These features will continue to develop south and east during
the evening and overnight hours, becoming a focus for thunderstorm
development from western OK/central KS northeastward. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates will occur with cooling aloft, leading to
weak elevated instability, and adequate deep layer shear will be
in place to support a few organized cells. A few stronger storms
could produce marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts during
the evening and nighttime hours from western OK into eastern KS
and parts of northwestern MO.
..Leitman.. 11/09/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks and
mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will
move quickly northeastward on Tuesday from the Great Plains into
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. A line of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing along the
front from eastern Iowa south-southwestward into western Missouri
at the start of the period. As the upper-level trough approaches
from the southwest, strong large-scale ascent will sustain the
line during the day as it moves eastward across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability by afternoon.
Model forecasts over the last couple of runs have substantially
increased forecast instability across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Current model solutions suggest that SBCAPE could peak in
the 400 to 600 J/kg range in the afternoon from eastern Missouri
into north-central Illinois. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear of 60 to 70 kt, evident on forecast soundings, should support
a marginal severe threat along the leading edge of the line. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more intense parts of
the line. The line of storms is forecast to reach eastern Illinois
and southern Lake Michigan by early evening.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222
AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from
the Intermountain West into the Rockies on Wednesday as southwest
mid-level flow remains established from the Great Plains to the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into the Appalachians. Weak instability appears
likely to develop ahead of the front across parts of the Southeast
and Carolinas. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along
and ahead of the front during the day on Wednesday. Instability is
forecast to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the
continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected
Wednesday or Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... On Thursday
and Friday, the medium-range models move an upper-level trough from
the High Plains east-northeastward into the Northeast. A cold front
is forecast to move to the southern Eastern Seaboard and central
Gulf Coast. Further west, moisture return may take place in the
parts of the southern Plains on Friday as a surface low deepens in
the central High Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible during the
late afternoon near the moist axis across west Texas and western
Oklahoma. A shortwave trough approaching the southern Plains
Friday evening may support continued thunderstorm development in
the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to be weak
Friday and Friday night, an isolated severe threat will be possible.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... On Saturday, the models
move the shortwave trough into the Ozarks. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward into the lower
and mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear, may support an isolated severe threat from eastern Oklahoma
eastward into Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening.
On Sunday and Monday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward into the western Atlantic as a large upper-level
trough moves into the central states. Although there is a large
amount of uncertainty, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough in parts of the Southeast on Sunday, and along the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. Instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the
trough both days, suggesting that any severe threat will be marginal.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... A broad and strong upper-level trough will move
through the Four Corners and into the central Plains today. At the
surface, a lee trough/cyclone will form in the Panhandles vicinity
ahead of a southward-advancing cold front.
...Southern High Plains... The combination of strong mid-level
flow and a strong surface pressure gradient behind the initial
Pacific cold front will promote areas of 20-30 mph winds. Locally
higher sustained winds are possible as are gusts of 40-50 mph. The
trend of lower afternoon RH continues in model guidance. RH will
generally fall to near 20% with isolated areas seeing lower values.
..Wendt.. 11/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough in the central High Plains
continues to accelerate to the northeast, broad cyclonic flow will
remain across the West. With moderate westerly flow over the Rockies,
weak lee troughing is possible in the southern/central High Plains.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than previous days and the surface
pressure gradients substantially weaker. Dry air, however, will
remain across southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Here a few
areas may experience locally elevated conditions. With temperatures
generally in the low/mid 50s F and spatially limited 15-20 mph winds,
the fire weather risk will remain low. No areas will be highlighted.
..Wendt.. 11/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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For every credibility gap, there is a gullibility fill.
-- R. Clopton
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