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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.11.20 15:30z 152 Lines 8197 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40445_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<AL0Y<
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Sent: 201111/1501Z 40445@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LOWER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Areas affected...Parts of the southwestern Florida Peninsula and
lower Keys
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 110936Z - 111200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for waterspouts might not be completely
negligible with ongoing convection near southwestern Florida
Peninsula coastal areas through daybreak. By 9-11 AM EST, it is
possible that the potential for a tornado or two could begin to
increase around the Fort Myers and Port Charlotte areas. While it
is not yet certain that this will require a watch, trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...As Eta migrates north-northeastward around 10 kts, VWP
data indicate strengthening wind fields in the 1-3 KM AGL layer
contributing to enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
across the lower Florida Keys into southwestern Peninsula coastal
areas. This includes flow up to 50 kts as far east as Key West,
dropping off to 30-40 kts at Miami.
In the presence of a tropically moist boundary layer (including
surface dew points in the mid 70s F) to the northeast and east
of the circulation center, this has contributed to weak to modest
sustained low-level mesocyclones within discrete ongoing convective
development near Marathon into the Gulf waters near/northwest of the
Everglades. Given their current strength, and the probable presence
of at least a shallow near-surface stable layer inland of the coast,
the risk for tornadoes seems likely to remain low through daybreak.
Thereafter, with the onset of at least weak boundary-layer warming,
some of these low-level mesocyclones could begin to pose increasing
risk for producing a tornado.
Stronger low-level wind fields, associated potential low-level
mesocyclone development, and boundary-layer destabilization could
begin impacting coastal areas around Fort Myers and Port Charlotte
as early as 14-16Z.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 11/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 26998251 27038199 26198148 25458062 25078074 24778114
24718151 25448183 26358252 26998251
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108
AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or
Friday night.
...Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will be in place on Friday,
with several shortwave troughs migrating through larger-scale, broad
trough encompassing much of the CONUS. One such mid/upper shortwave
will deepen over the western states and eject eastward across
the Rockies and into the Plains by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly low level flow ahead of this features will overspread
the southern/central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. Modest moisture
transport will occur, bringing mainly 40s and 50s F surface dewpoints
into parts of northwest TX, OK and perhaps the Ozarks. As a low-level
jet increases during the evening, warm advection atop a cooler
near-surface boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates
should suffice for isolated thunderstorm development from parts
of the southern Plains into Missouri, but severe potential will be
limited by weak instability and the elevated nature of convection.
Further east, what remains of current Tropical Storm Eta is forecast
by the National Hurricane Center to be near northern FL or southeast
GA on Friday and likely beginning the transition from tropical
to extratropical as it interacts with a cold front stalled near
the Southeast coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the
eastern Carolinas into portions of FL where any stronger heating can
occur, resulting in enough destabilization for sustained updrafts.
Given the expected location of Eta at that time, tropical cyclone
tornado activity does not appear to be a concern, and severe
potential is low at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/11/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper level trough over the Plains on Day
4/Sat will intensify as it tracks across the Midwest and eastern
U.S. through Day 5/Sun. At the surface, low pressure will develop
over the northern Plains and deepen as it tracks eastward across the
Upper Midwest on Day 4/Sat, and into Quebec by early Day 6/Mon. A
trailing cold front attendant to the low will sweep eastward across
the Plains to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by Monday morning. Ahead
of the cold front, modest moisture will return northward through
the lower MS Valley to the lower OH and TN Valleys on Day 5/Sun,
and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Midwest
and Mid-South vicinity. At this time, it appears instability will
be limited, and higher-quality moisture displaces to the south of
better forcing and stronger shear profiles closer to the surface
low and midlevel trough. Thus, severe potential appears low.
The upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern
CONUS through Day 7/Tue, while an amplified upper ridge develops
across the western and central U.S. Strong surface high pressure
will develop from the Rockies eastward behind the weekend cold
frontal passage, and persist through much of the rest of the period,
precluding severe potential through early/middle of next week.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow at upper levels will becomes
quasi-zonal across much of the U.S. today. A shortwave trough will
intensify late in the period across the central Rockies. A broad belt
of moderate to strong mid-level winds will exist from the Southwest
into the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, much of the Plains will
be under the influence of a polar high pressure system. Another
cold front will move southward out of the northern Rockies and into
central Plains. Fire weather concerns will be rather low for most
of the country. A few areas of locally elevated conditions may occur
along the Front Range in Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico.
Terrain-enhanced, downslope winds in those locations will combine
with 15-20% RH. With the lee trough remaining ill-defined, these
conditions are not likely to occur broadly or for more than briefly.
No highlights will be added.
..Wendt.. 11/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will continue to remain
quasi-zonal on Thursday. In the wake of a shortwave trough,
cold air will move southward across the Plains to near the Red
River. Gusty northerly winds may develop in the central/southern
High Plains behind the cold front. Though RH may fall to near 20-25%
in places, temperatures will generally remain in the 40s F. Fire
weather concerns will be minimal across the U.S.
..Wendt.. 11/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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A language that doesn't have everything is actually easier to program in
than some that do.
-- Dennis M. Ritchie
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