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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.11.20 15:23z 124 Lines 6756 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40902_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201112/1501Z 40902@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231
AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across
eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday
afternoon and night.
...Synopsis... Large-scale trough amplification is likely to occur
over the northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and
Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Primary
surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Upper Midwest,
with modest-caliber low-level moisture steadily advecting
north-northeastward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front.
...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex... It is probable that low/some
middle 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward into the
region by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in advance of
the east/southeastward-moving cold front. Early day convection is a
point of uncertainty and potential limitation, particularly regarding
the northward extent of modest later-day destabilization. As
compared to the 00Z NAM/GFS, the 00Z ECMWF (and semi-consistent
prior runs) features notably stronger cyclogenesis farther south
across Missouri/Iowa toward the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with
higher moisture content and somewhat greater available instability
(albeit modest overall) across this region. Regardless, it would
appear that at least some severe-weather potential will exist
across the region late Saturday afternoon, and more so Saturday
evening. While moisture/buoyancy details are not clear, hodographs
would support the potential for fast-moving semi-discrete supercells
and linear segments where adequate destabilization does occur, with
a corresponding potential for damaging winds along with a tornado
risk. This severe potential currently appears most probable across
eastern Oklahoma/far northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern
Missouri.
..Guyer.. 11/12/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION... An amplified yet progressive large-scale pattern
will exist late this weekend through much of next week based on
latest-available guidance. On Day 4/Sunday, an upper trough is
likely to continue an east-northeastward transition over the Great
Lakes/Northeast States and Ontario/Quebec. Some thunderstorms will be
possible across the eastern third of the CONUS. While a few strong
fast-moving storms could occur, organized severe thunderstorms
do not appear overly likely at this juncture. Pre-cold-frontal
moisture/buoyancy will tend to be very limited in conjunction for
the more appreciable forcing for ascent and stronger shear.
Thereafter, the severe-weather risk should be very low through the
early/middle part of next week including Days 5-8. Appreciable
low-level moisture will be shunted southward across the Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Straits with a cold front, with high pressure and
stable conditions otherwise prevailing east of the Rockies.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will begin today over the central
Rockies and accelerate eastward into the Plains before reaching the
upper Ohio River region. In the wake of the trough, a cold front
will progress farther southward into the southern Plains. Behind the
front, a few areas in the central High Plains may see gusty surface
winds with RH reduced to 20-25% during the afternoon. With high
temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will be low. Farther
south, drier air will be present in the southern High Plains. Locally
elevated conditions may occur within the terrain/foothills outside of
areas that have received snowfall. Weak surface pressure gradients
should keep these conditions spatially and temporally limited,
however. No areas will be highlighted.
..Wendt.. 11/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... For Friday, the upper-level pattern will generally
be quasi-zonal across the western two-thirds of the U.S. A shortwave
trough forecast to be near the Baja Peninsula will eventually phase
with a stronger, more progressive trough moving through the Great
Basin into the central Rockies by the end of the period. At the
surface, cold air behind the recent front will be situated across
much of the Plains with the anticyclone shifting to the east with
time. With zonal flow increasing across the Divide, lee troughing
will be better defined across the northern/central Plains.
...Portions of central/northern High Plains... The increase in the
surface pressure gradient in conjunction with the lee trough will
help to increase southerly/westerly winds to the east/west of the
trough axis, respectively. Some guidance suggests that temperatures
will warm into the 50s F with RH being reduced to 15-25% within
the region. Current surface observations of the airmass that will
move in from Canada do show very dry air. While surface winds may
reach 15-25 mph, it is fairly uncertain whether the airmass can
modify enough to support broad areas of near critical to critical
RH. Perhaps the best potential for dry/windy conditions will be in
southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle where downsloping
will occur. However, these areas have seen recent precipitation
as well as having cooler, relatively moist conditions the previous
day. This adds further uncertainty regarding fine fuel dryness. Given
the concerns, no areas will be highlighted.
..Wendt.. 11/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Absurdity, n.:
A statement or belief manifestly inconsistent with one's own
opinion.
-- Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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