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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.11.20 15:30z 177 Lines 9865 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40971_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<AL0Y<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 201113/1501Z 40971@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across
eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday
afternoon and night.
...Synopsis... Large-scale trough amplification will occur from the
northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes
Saturday and Saturday night, with a very strong (100+ kt) polar
jet developing eastward over the middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio
Valley Saturday night. Related surface cyclogenesis is expected
to occur over the Upper Midwest Saturday night, with a surface
cyclone deepening from Iowa toward the Lake Superior/Lake Michigan
vicinity through early Sunday morning. Modest-caliber low-level
moisture will steadily advect north-northeastward in advance of
an east/southeastward-moving cold front that will reach the middle
Mississippi Valley/ArkLaTex late Saturday night.
...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Saturday morning across
much of the region, with little if any severe-weather potential
expected early in the day. This precipitation will tend to hinder
the northward extent of modest destabilization later in the day,
although at least some severe risk is expected to materialize
late Saturday afternoon and evening related to the south/southwest
fringes of this early-day precipitation/residual cloud cover.
It is probable that low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints
will develop north/northeastward into the region by late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in advance of the
east/southeastward-moving cold front. In terms of guidance,
00Z NAM/GFS runs have trended a bit stronger with surface
cyclogenesis/moisture return as similar to prior ECMWF solutions
(which have been synoptically stronger and modestly more unstable),
further lending credence to at least some late-day/evening
severe-weather risk across the region.
Even while mid-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep at
these latitudes, MLCAPE could reach around 500-750 J/kg particularly
across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas by early evening. Very long
hodographs (45-60 kt effective shear) would support the potential
for some fast-moving semi-discrete supercells and linear segments,
with at least some potential for damaging winds and possibly a
tornado risk. Uncertainties regarding the exact degree of late-day
destabilization preclude a categorical Slight Risk at this time.
..Guyer.. 11/13/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226
AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Although organized severe-weather potential is
currently expected to remain minimal on Sunday, a few thunderstorms
with gusty winds may occur over parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and
Northeast States.
...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes Sunday morning is expected to quickly spread
east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the Northeast States
through Sunday night. An associated cold front will race generally
eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS.
...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States... Scattered to numerous
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
Sunday morning across the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
near/ahead of a fast-moving cold front. This convection will quickly
transition east-northeastward across the region during the day. In
the presence of minimal low-level moisture and limited buoyancy
(100-200 J/kg MUCAPE at most), various model forecast soundings
suggest that buoyancy depth will tend to be too shallow for charge
separation, although thermodynamic profiles may be conducive for
localized/isolated lightning flashes in the presence of strong
forcing for ascent. While organized severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected, the potential does exist for some convectively
enhanced wind gusts as modest diurnal heating occurs coincident
with very strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL.
...Coastal Texas to Southeast States/Florida... These areas will be
located well to the south of more appreciable height falls/forcing
for ascent, although corridors of weak convection may occur near
the southeast-moving cold front. Forecast soundings for areas such
as coastal Texas and the Florida Peninsula/nearby Southeast States
generally reflect poor mid-level lapse rates and a persistent
inversion aloft. Thus, the potential for thunderstorms currently
appears low (less than 10 percent).
..Guyer.. 11/13/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION... Severe-weather potential is expected to be
virtually nil for much of the Day 4-8 time frame (Monday-Friday). An
amplified yet semi-progressive large-scale pattern will exist through
much of next week based on latest available guidance. Appreciable
low-level moisture will be shunted southward across the Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Straits in the wake of a Day 3/Sunday cold frontal
passage across the Eastern Seaboard. High pressure and stable
conditions are otherwise likely to prevail east of the Rockies for
much of next week. Low-level moisture may develop northward across
the southern Plains by late in the week (around Day 8/Friday),
but considerable guidance variability exists at this juncture.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will develop across the central
and southern High Plains as an amplifying upper trough rapidly moves
across the western CONUS. While cool, wet and wintry conditions
will accompany the upper trough across the Intermountain West, a
downslope component of flow along the lee of the Rockies will promote
some dry and breezy conditions to portions of the central/southern
High Plains, where very modest wildfire-spread potential is expected.
...Portions of the central and southern High Plains... By afternoon
peak heating, the aforementioned downslope flow will promote 15-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20% RH by afternoon peak
heating across parts of the central and southern High Plains. The
latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that the best chance
for favorable wildfire-spread conditions will be confined to the
lee of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains, where an Elevated area has
been introduced. Stronger upper support will be primarily west of
the Rockies during the afternoon, suggesting that mainly locally
Elevated conditions will be present elsewhere along the lee of the
Rockies given weaker surface winds. Some guidance hints at Elevated
conditions occurring across the central High Plains with the onset
of stronger surface southerly flow. However, several guidance
members depict surface RH above 25%, with marginal fuels in place,
precluding an Elevated introduction at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/13/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough, accompanied by an 80+
knot 500 mb jet streak, will eject into the Plains during the Day
2/Saturday period. Surface lee troughing will intensify across the
Plains, with strong westerly downslope flow expected along the lee of
the Rockies into the central and southern High Plains. The strong,
dry flow will promote critical meteorological surface conditions
conducive to wildfire growth.
...Parts of the central and southern High Plains... Strong downslope
flow across the central and southern High Plains will contribute
to 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25% RH during
the afternoon hours. An Elevated area was introduced to portions
of the central and southern High Plains where fuels are at least
marginally receptive to fire spread. Fuels however, are modestly
more receptive along the New Mexico/Texas border, where the latest
model guidance consensus also depicts 20-30 mph sustained westerly
winds overlapping with RH as low as 15% in spots. A Critical area
was introduced to account for this scenario. Given the widespread
nature of the stronger surface winds, at least locally Critical
conditions may occur anywhere within the Elevated delineation. Some
guidance members also suggest that Elevated conditions may occur
farther east into western Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. An
eastward expansion of the Elevated area may be necessary in future
outlooks should guidance consensus trend more favorably to stronger
surface winds/lower RH in these areas.
..Squitieri.. 11/13/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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