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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.11.20 15:12z 184 Lines 10061 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41118_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<N3DWB<LU9HGS<
LU9DCE
Sent: 201115/1501Z 41118@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will
be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough will
move quickly east-northeastward across the southern Great Lakes
region today. The system will become negatively tilted as a band of
strong large-scale ascent moves into the central Appalachians. At
the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the central
Appalachians with a pre-frontal trough developing ahead of the
front. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the pre-frontal
trough at the start of the period across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This line will move quickly eastward into the central
Appalachians by midday. Ahead of the line, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints mainly in the
50s F. This will be enough for weak destabilization ahead of the
line. By afternoon, RAP forecast soundings have peak instability
reaching the 200 to 400 J/kg range. This combined with extreme
deep-layer shear of 100 to 110 kt and 40 to 50 kt winds just above
the surface, should enable a fine line to develop. The fine line
is expected to quickly move across the Appalachian crest eastward
into the foothills and coastal areas during the late afternoon and
early evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with
this line of storms. A marginal risk has been introduced in this
outlook for much of Pennsylvania, Maryland and northern Virginia
extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/15/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224
AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday and
Monday night.
...Synopsis... A very limited potential for deep convection will
exist on Monday as an amplified large-scale pattern will prevail
over the CONUS. Trough-related cyclonically curved westerlies will
exist over the Eastern States, while an upper ridge builds over the
Rockies in advance of a shortwave trough approaching the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday.
The potential for thunderstorms should be relegated to
central/southern Florida and nearby waters as a cold front progresses
southward across the region. Thermodynamic profiles do not appear
overly conducive for lightning generation given poor mid-level lapse
rates, but may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms particularly
during the daylight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
..Guyer.. 11/15/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214
AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected
Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-level pattern will remain
amplified but progressive over the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave
trough will quickly overspread the Pacific Northwest and advance
toward the Canadian Rockies, while upper ridging and surface high
pressure prevail over the Plains and Midwest.
As a cold front continues to settle southward, thermodynamic profiles
may marginally support a few thunderstorms near the far southern
Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys.
In the West, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across
coastal portions of Washington/Oregon and northern California in
association with steepening lapse rates/weak buoyancy related to an
inland-advancing shortwave trough and associated frontal band. While
organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected, a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be
ruled out.
..Guyer.. 11/15/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION... The risk for severe thunderstorms is expected to
remain low through the middle/late part of the week, largely owing
to the initial prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and
associated dry/stable conditions. An amplified large-scale flow
regime will tend to de-amplify by late in the week as the pattern
trends increasingly quasi-zonal. As this occurs, airmass modification
is expected across the south-central CONUS with a gradual northward
return of modest low-level moisture through Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday.
Regardless, the potential for organized severe storms is currently
expected to remain limited into next weekend.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to progress across
the eastern CONUS, with strong northwesterly flow aloft prevailing
across the Plains states and upper ridging building in across the
southwest U.S through the period. At the surface, a cold front
will surge south across Texas, with high pressure building in
across the Intermountain West. Surface high pressure west of the
Rockies, along with weak lee troughing across the central/southern
High Plains, is expected to foster dry and windy downslope flow,
with modest wildfire-spread potential evident. The surface high
will also fortify a pressure gradient across southern California,
especially towards the end of the period, with dry offshore flow
likely across the southern Transverse Ranges.
...Central and Southern High Plains into south Texas... Downslope
flow and downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft
via a dry boundary layer will support 15-25 mph sustained westerly
surface winds and 15-25% RH, from the Kansas/Nebraska/Colorado border
to the southwest Texas Panhandle, necessitating the maintenance
of an Elevated highlight. Some guidance indicates a pocket of
high-end Elevated/locally Critical conditions just west of the
New Mexico/Texas border, with surface RH potentially dropping
to 10%, along with winds sustaining up to 25 mph for several
hours. However, enough model disagreement is in place to withhold
a Critical highlight this outlook, especially given the departing
upper support through the afternoon.
15-25% RH and 15 mph sustained northerly winds are also expected
to accompany the post-cold frontal environment in southern Texas,
east-northeast of the Edwards Plateau during the late morning to
mid-afternoon hours. However, given the progressive nature of the
cold front, these conditions are expected to be relatively brief,
overspreading very marginally receptive fuels, precluding an Elevated
delineation this outlook.
...Portions of southern California... Towards the end of the period
(late Sunday night into Monday morning), modest strengthening
of the pressure gradient will induce 15-25 mph offshore flow,
especially across the higher terrain, with RH dropping below 20% in
several locales. An Elevated area was introduced where the latest
high-resolution guidance overlaps the aforementioned surface
conditions with the most receptive fuels. Elevated criteria
winds/RH are also expected across the San Bernardino to Laguna
Mountain ranges, however, 0.50-1.50 inches of precipitation in the
past week will have likely dampened fuels to some degree. The best
timing for Elevated criteria winds/RH will be between 06-12Z Monday.
..Squitieri.. 11/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis... An upper ridge will move eastward across the
Intermountain West into the Plains as a mid-level trough moves
ashore across the West Coast Day 2/Monday. Surface high pressure,
accompanied by relatively calm winds and cooler temperatures across
much of the central/southwest CONUS, is expected to promote more
widespread quiescent fire weather conditions compared to previous
days. At the start of the period, a pressure gradient is expected to
be in place along with dry offshore flow across southern California,
though the gradient and associated wind fields are expected to
gradually weaken through the day.
...Parts of southern California... Through at least the first half
of the day Monday, 15-25 mph sustained offshore flow, especially
across the higher terrain of the southern Transverse Ranges, is
expected to overlap with 15-25% RH and at least modestly receptive
fuels. Given meaningful precipitation accumulations across the
San Bernadino to Laguna Mountain Ranges over the past week, the
most likely area to experience modest wildfire-spread potential
will be from the Santa Ynez mountains eastward to the San Gabriel
Mountains and into parts of the Ventura Valley. An Elevated highlight
was added to account for this scenario. Later Monday evening into
Tuesday morning, offshore flow begins to weaken, with a gradual
transition to onshore flow expected.
..Squitieri.. 11/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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