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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.11.20 15:11z 162 Lines 8909 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41279_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201117/1501Z 41279@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday
or Wednesday night.
...Pacific Northwest through the forecast period... A series of
midlevel shortwave troughs will progress inland over the Pacific
Northwest beginning on day 1 and continuing through the day 2
forecast period. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and relatively
moist, onshore flow will contribute to surface-based CAPE of 100-300
J/kg, mainly from the crest of the Cascades westward to the coast.
Here, low-topped convection with occasional lightning flashes
will be possible, with convection somewhat focused with an initial
shortwave trough early in the day, and with another trough overnight.
The strongest cells could produce gusty winds and small hail given
the cold midlevel temperatures (close to minus 30 C at 500 mb),
but severe storms are not anticipated. Very isolated lightning
flashes may also occur across eastern OR/WA into ID as the initial
shortwave trough progresses inland, but marginal buoyancy suggests
this threat will be too low to warrant an outlook area.
East of the Rockies, relatively dry/stable low-level conditions
are expected in the wake of a cold front that will drift south of
the FL Peninsula.
..Thompson.. 11/17/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151
AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will become somewhat more amplified
over the western states by the end of the forecast period. A series
of mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate across the Pacific
Northwest and dig southward along the CA coast, resulting in the
development of a larger-scale trough. Further east, high pressure
both aloft and at the surface will persist across the southeast and
eastern U.S. This will result in dry and stable conditions for much
of the CONUS east of the MS River.
As the aforementioned trough becomes better defined in the west,
a weak surface lee trough will develop over the Plains. This will
allow for modest Gulf return flow spreading northward across TX
into southern/central Plains vicinity, and surface dewpoints may
climb into the low 50s as far north as OK/KS after 00z. A stout
inversion around 850 mb will preclude surface-based instability,
while warm temperatures aloft and poor midlevel lapse rates further
preclude thunderstorm activity in this weak warm advection regime.
..Leitman.. 11/17/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal upper level pattern on Day 4/Fri
will give way to a somewhat more amplified and progressive pattern
beginning Days 5-6/Sat-Sun. During this time, a series of mid/upper
shortwave troughs will migrate eastward from the western U.S. and
into the Plains. Strong surface high pressure will persist across
much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, resulting in dry, stable
conditions. However, a weak lee trough over the southern High Plains
will allow southerly low level flow to transport modest Gulf moisture
northward across the southern Plains ahead of a stalled front draped
across KS and into the lower MS/OH Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints
in the 50s to low 60s F could reside across parts of KS/OK/TX, but
cloudiness and heavy rain showers will limit instability. While
thunderstorm activity is possible for portions of the southern
Plains region during the weekend, severe potential appears limited.
Quite a bit of spread exists in forecast guidance beyond Day 6/Sun.
There is general agreement that another larger-scale trough will
eject eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains/Central U.S.
early next week. However, too much uncertainty remains at this time
scale given large spread in forecast guidance to ascertain severe
potential across parts of the southern U.S. around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will
dominate much of the southern U.S, promoting dry low-level conditions
accompanied by a large scale quiescent surface wind field. Meanwhile,
a mid-level trough impinging on the West Coast will promote strong
southerly surface flow across the western Great Basin. While surface
conditions supporting significant wildfire growth will be limited
across much of the U.S, a few areas may briefly see a more localized
threat of wildfire-spread potential.
...Southern High Plains... Weak surface lee troughing will promote
15+ mph sustained southerly flow across mainly northeast New Mexico
by afternoon peak heating. The latest guidance consensus suggests
that RH should drop within the 15-20% range during the afternoon,
overlapping with the breezy conditions. With modestly receptive
fuels in place, an Elevated area was introduced, with the most likely
time for Elevated conditions occurring within the 19-23Z time frame.
...Southeast states... Dry low-level air is expected to accompany
surface high pressure across portions Mississippi into Alabama,
Georgia, South Carolina, and the Florida Panhandle. Guidance
consensus depicts RH dipping into the 25-35% range. However,
peak sustained winds are expected to remain within the 10-15 mph
range. Given the weaker surface flow fields, an Elevated area has
been withheld at this time.
...Western Great Basin... With the approach of the aforementioned
upper trough, 25+ mph sustained southerly winds are expected
to become widespread during the afternoon. However, guidance
widely varies regarding how low RH will get during the day, with
some guidance members depicting RH as low as 15-25%, with other
members showing 25-35%. The questionable RH along with the marginal
receptiveness of fuels precludes any highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... Upper ridging across the southern U.S. will begin to
flatten, with a trough aloft over the Intermountain West gradually
de-amplifying in favor of more zonal-like flow across the CONUS
on Day 2/Wednesday. While surface high pressure will dominate the
eastern U.S, broad lee troughing will promote modest southerly flow
across the Plains states, with downslope flow prevalent along the
lee of the Rockies. As such, modest wildfire-spread concerns will
exist for portions of the central and southern High Plains.
...Central and southern High Plains... While upper support will
be lacking along the lee of the Rockies, gradient flow induced by
surface lee troughing, along with downslope flow along the lee of the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains, will foster dry and breezy conditions
across the central to southern High Plains. 15-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds along with 15-20% RH are expected during the
afternoon. An Elevated area has been added given that fuels across
the region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. A few
of the latest guidance members hint at locally Critical conditions
across southeast Colorado by afternoon peak heating, but Critical
conditions appear too localized/brief for Critical highlights at
this time.
...Parts of the Southeast... With high pressure persisting across
the area, a dry low-level airmass will remain in place, with RH
expected to dip within the 25-35% range by afternoon. However,
surface wind fields will remain on the weak end (i.e. 10-15 mph)
based on the latest model guidance. While localized wildfire-spread
remains possible, more favorable conditions promoting major wildfire
growth appear quite limited, precluding any fire weather highlights
at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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