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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.11.20 15:04z 156 Lines 8822 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41335_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201118/1501Z 41335@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207
AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on
Friday or Friday night.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will persist across much of the
CONUS east of the Rockies on Day 3/Friday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will generally lead to dry and stable conditions.
Across the western states, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest early in the period will develop southeast across
the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This will result in height
falls across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains late in the
period, inducing a lee low over the central/southern High Plains. In
response, modest Gulf moisture will stream northward through the
southern Plains ahead of stalled front across the central Plains
to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity.
This warm advection regime will likely result in developing showers
from the Four Corners into the central/southern Plains and parts of
the Midwest along the aforementioned boundary. However, thunderstorm
activity should be sparse due to weak instability and poor lapse
rates. The exception may be across parts of the higher terrain of
SW CO/NW NM where cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel
lapse rates, and deep layer flow will increase with the approach
of the trough. A few lightning flashes may occur in this area from
late Friday evening into the overnight hours.
..Leitman.. 11/18/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION... A more progressive and active weather pattern
will emerge over the CONUS during the Day 4-8 time period. A
series of mid/upper troughs will migrate from west to east across
the country, bringing chances for thunderstorm activity to parts of
the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. The first
trough will shift eastward from the Plains to the Atlantic coast
Day 4/Sat through Day 7/Tue. The second trough will dig across
the western states beginning late Day 5/Sun and emerge over the
Plains on Day 7/Tue. Strong surface high pressure over the eastern
U.S. initially will preclude much in the way of strong Gulf return
flow over the south-central and southeast states. Given limited
moisture and a pattern more typical of anafrontal precipitation,
severe thunderstorms are not expected, though some isolated
thunderstorm activity could be embedded in periods of moderate to
heavy rain from the central/southern Plains to the Midwest through
Day 5/Sun and into the Northeast on Day 6/Mon.
Another round of rain and thunderstorms is expected to develop
over the central/southern Plains as the second upper trough ejects
eastward across the Rockies around Day 7/Tue. Forecast guidance
varies in the timing and intensity of this system, so confidence
is low in the later parts of the forecast period, though some
thunderstorm potential is expected to spread eastward across much of
the eastern portions of the CONUS. Depending on low level moisture
and degree of destabilization that could occur, some low-end strong
to severe thunderstorm potential could unfold across the Southeast
by the middle of next week, but uncertainty is too great to include
probabilities at this time.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... An upper ridge across the eastern U.S and a trough
aloft across the west CONUS are expected to flatten through
the period in favor of a more zonal upper air pattern. At the
surface, lee troughing will prevail, with strong, relatively dry
southwesterly flow dominating much of the central U.S. With some
of the stronger westerly flow aloft overlapping the Plains states,
modestly favorable wildfire spread conditions are expected to develop
during the afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure and an associated
dry airmass will remain in place across the Southeast.
...Central U.S... Downslope flow along the Sangre De Cristo
mountains will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly flow with 15-25%
RH. Downslope flow along the Laramie range, combined with downward
momentum transport of the stronger mid-level zonal flow, will promote
15-25 mph southwesterly winds/15-25% RH across western Nebraska
into southwest South Dakota. Elevated highlights remain in place,
though occasional locally critical conditions may occur. Farther east
into the central/southern Plains, RH will be higher (20-30%), but
surface southwesterly winds may be quite strong, perhaps sustaining
up to 30 mph in spots. Despite the marginal RH depicted by model
guidance and modest fuel receptiveness, the widespread stronger wind
field may compensate to support modest wildfire-spread potential,
warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights.
...Southeast States... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected
to dip into the 25-35% range. While this RH alone would support
wildfire spread, sustained surface winds are expected to remain
mainly below 15 mph, limiting wildfire-spread potential to some
degree, precluding fire weather highlights at this time. However,
locally Elevated conditions may occur where localized mixing promotes
stronger wind gusts.
..Squitieri.. 11/18/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis... Relatively zonal flow aloft will persist across the
CONUS through Day 2/Thursday. Surface high pressure will dominate the
southeast and northwest CONUS, with surface low development expected
across the southern Plains, and broad lee-troughing promoting strong
southerly flow across the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley areas.
Strong mid-level zonal flow will also overspread a modestly dry
boundary layer across parts of the central Plains, with dry and
breezy conditions expected. Dry and breezy conditions may also
occur across portions of the southern High Plains into Illinois
during the afternoon.
...Central Plains... A relatively cool but dry low-level airmass is
expected to remain in place across portions of central and western
Nebraska Thursday afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, an 80 kt
mid-level jet streak is expected to overspread the area. Downward
momentum transport of this stronger flow, along with some downslope
component of surface flow are expected to contribute to 15-25 mph
sustained westerly winds coinciding with 20-25% RH, warranting the
introduction of an Elevated area.
...Southern High Plains... With the aforementioned surface
low development in the southern Plains, a pressure gradient and
enhanced downslope flow along the Sangre De Cristo mountains may
promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds across portions of
far southeastern Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. Questions remain however, regarding how low RH will get,
with some guidance members depicting 15-25% RH and other members
showing RH hovering at or above 25%. Given some discrepancies in
guidance, an Elevated highlight will be withheld for now. However,
any drying trend in RH would likely prompt the introduction of an
Elevated highlight in future outlooks.
...Portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois... As strong
southerly flow develops across portions of the Missouri Valley into
Illinois Thursday afternoon, dry air from the Southeast will move
into the region. Still, while sustained winds may peak near/just
over 25 mph, RH is expected to dip mainly into the 25-30% range. In
addition, much of the region has experienced over 0.50 inches of
meaningful precipitation within the past week, and fuels currently
appear marginally dry. Given the very modest fuel receptiveness
and RH, an Elevated delineation has been withheld for this forecast.
..Squitieri.. 11/18/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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