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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.11.20 15:15z 132 Lines 7201 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41381_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201119/1501Z 41381@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201
AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday
through Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A series of mid/upper shortwave troughs migrating through
larger-scale cyclonic flow regime will shift eastward from
the Rockies to the Upper Midwest and south-central U.S. on
Saturday/Saturday night. Boundary-layer moisture will largely
be limited by persistent surface high pressure over most of
the CONUS. However, some modest surface dewpoints will reside
over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley vicinity ahead
of a southeastward-progressing cold front. Showers and at times
moderate/heavy rainfall is possible in this weak upslope flow and
warm advection regime across the southern Rockies and adjacent
Plains, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be limited to
portions of the higher terrain of southern CO/northern NM. Here,
cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and
sufficient MUCAPE for isolate lightning flashes will coincide
with strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough. Further east,
poor lapse rates and very weak elevated instability will preclude
thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper level pattern is expected
during the Day 4-8 period. An upper trough over the Plains on Day
4/Sun will shift eastward to the Atlantic coast through Day 5/Mon. At
the same time, a surface cold front will sweep east/southeast
from the southern Plains through the Midwest and eastern U.S.,
moving well offshore the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Tue. Showers,
and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, are expected to accompany the
frontal passage, but mostly stable boundary-layer conditions will
preclude severe thunderstorm concerns through Day 5/Mon.
As this initial upper trough shifts east of the MS River on
Day 5/Mon, an upper ridge will briefly amplify over the Plains.
Meanwhile, a western upper trough will deepen and shift eastward
toward the southern Rockies on Monday, and the central/southern
Plains on Day 6/Tue. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern Plains vicinity, and height falls will result
in strengthening lee cyclogenesis developing eastward across the
central/southern Plains Monday night through Tuesday. Increasing
southerly low level flow will transport somewhat modest Gulf
moisture northward. However, medium range guidance is in fairly good
agreement that surface dewpoints as high as the low to mid 60s F are
possible as far north as southern OK. How much destabilization will
ultimately occur remains somewhat uncertain, as the cold frontal
passage on Sunday/Monday could cut-off Gulf return flow more than
guidance currently indicates. Additionally, cloudiness and showers
in a strong warm advection regime could limit destabilization ahead
of the surface low/front. Nevertheless, overall pattern favors at
least some concern for isolated strong/severe thunderstorm potential
across the southern Plains vicinity on Day 6/Tue, but uncertainty
remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities.
Beyond Tuesday, spread among various guidance increases dramatically,
and predictability is low.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow will prevail across the CONUS,
with surface high pressure dominating the eastern and northwestern
U.S through the period. Broad surface lee troughing across the
southern Plains/Missouri Valley and downslope flow along the lee of
the Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions across portions
of the High Plains and central CONUS, where modest wildfire-spread
potential will exist.
...Southern High Plains... Latest guidance consensus depicts
15-25 mph sustained westerly winds during the afternoon. Some model
guidance suggests that RH will struggle to drop below 20%. However,
previous days of downslope flow have shown RH dropping into
the Elevated range, and this trend is expected to continue this
afternoon. With fuels being at least modestly receptive to fire
spread, an Elevated delineation has been continued.
...Portions of western into central Nebraska... Similar to the
southern High Plains, downslope flow, along with downward momentum
transport of the stronger flow aloft, is expected to foster 15-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds atop fuels that are at least
marginally receptive to fire spread. Guidance consensus suggests
that RH will dip mainly into the 20-25% range by afternoon peak
heating. The relatively favorable winds and RH are expected to
overlap long enough to warrant the continuation of an Elevated area.
...Portions of the Midwest... Dry air from portions of the Southeast
is expected to move northwest into parts of the Midwest (mainly
Missouri, Illinois and Indiana) by afternoon as 20+ mph sustained
southwesterly winds (with higher gusts) overlaps 25-35% RH. Though
much of the area has experienced appreciable rainfall within the
past week, rapid drying of the finer fuels, along with the extent
of the surface wind field, may compensate to promote some threat
for wildfire spread, necessitating the Elevated highlights in place.
..Squitieri.. 11/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will continue across
the CONUS through Day 2/Friday. Surface high pressure, along with
relatively cool conditions and/or calm winds are expected across
much of the CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread concerns
to a degree. Surface high pressure across the Great Basin will
foster modest, localized offshore flow across terrain favoring
portions of the southern Transverse Ranges in southern California,
but the dry, breezy conditions are expected to be brief/localized
enough to preclude an Elevated area at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Some primal termite knocked on wood. And tasted it, and found it good.
And that is why your Cousin May Fell through the parlor floor today.
-- Ogden Nash
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